This past spring, I examined public polling that was already flashing danger signs for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Months later, those indicators have not improved; indeed, multiple surveys suggest the incumbent party’s position has deteriorated. These cycles almost never go well for the president’s party, and barring some major surprises, history looks poised to repeat itself in November.

One of the least disastrous polls published in the last few weeks comes via NBC News. While other data have looked considerably worse for the GOP, NBC’s numbers give Democrats a 5-point lead on the so-called generic congressional ballot, several percentage points below the RealClearPolitics average. Perhaps it’s a sign of how dire things may be feeling on Team Red that many Republican-aligned strategists would take this outcome in a heartbeat: