As if a once-in-a-century pandemic, months of rioting, and a late Supreme Court vacancy weren’t enough to process in 2020, President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis has thrown the presidential race into the deep unknown exactly a month before voters make their decision.
We wish Trump and first lady Melania Trump well. We hope that the symptoms will not become severe and that they will make as swift recovery as possible. But this late-breaking news has wide-ranging political consequences. Some, such as the lurking question of whether the president will be sick or well on Election Day, are obvious, but it’s hard even to guess what others may be.
There’s no doubt that the news complicates Trump’s campaign in a practical sense. One of the central aspects of his style has always been holding large, raucous rallies. He feeds off the energy of the crowds, which helps motivate supporters. Especially in the closing weeks of the campaign, based on the local press and attention they generate, the rallies would normally serve as a complement to get-out-the-vote efforts in swing states.
This year, the rallies, in particular, served another purpose. Trump hoped to draw a stark contrast between his high-octane rallies and “Sleepy Joe Biden” campaigning from his basement. The rallies themselves were also supposed to be an example of life returning to normal after months of lockdowns.
Now, rallies are off the table, at least for the next two weeks as the Trumps isolate and, we hope, recover without complications.
Polls show Trump trailing nationally and in battleground states, so he can ill afford to be sidelined in the final strait of the campaign, forced to depend on Twitter and surrogates to get his message out. A frozen race is one in which Biden is ahead and Trump has even less time to catch up, especially as many people are voting early.
Trump’s positive test could also play right into Biden’s central campaign message, which is that the president has not taken the virus seriously enough. He mocked Biden as recently as last week’s first presidential debate, for hiding out in his basement, and for virtue-signaling about mask-wearing. “When needed, I wear masks,” Trump said. “I don’t wear a mask like him. Every time you see him, he’s got a mask. He could be speaking 200 feet away from him, and he shows up with the biggest mask I’ve ever seen.”
Trump could have followed all the healthcare recommendations, including masking, and still have been infected with this highly contagious virus. Still, his infection still sheds a bleak light on his intermittent happy talk about the coronavirus and COVID-19.
On the other hand, depending on how Trump behaves in the weeks ahead, the president could benefit from voter sympathy for his ailment, especially if Democrats overplay their hand and attack him for it.
Biden sought to avoid that on Friday, simply tweeting, “Jill and I send our thoughts to President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump for a swift recovery. We will continue to pray for the health and safety of the president and his family.” He also cancelled negative ads once Trump was transported to Walter Reade National Military Medical Center. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, by contrast, was unable to resist taking a jab at the president, stating on MSNBC, “This is tragic, it’s very sad, but it’s also something that, again, going into crowds unmasked and all the rest, was sort of a brazen invitation for something like this to happen.”
A big unknown is the severity of Trump’s infection. His age and weight increase his risk from it, but he has the best medical care possible, and most COVID-19 cases are quite mild. Were Trump to take a turn for the worse, however, it could create a number of macabre possibilities that are difficult to game out.
It’s also worth noting that there are still four weeks until Election Day. This may not be the final twist that 2020 has to offer.
