So Donald Trump has been catching up to Hillary Clinton. Or perhaps better, Hillary Clinton has been sliding back toward Donald Trump. We suspect the passage quoted above helps explain why.
The key is not “the basket of deplorables.” Claiming that half of Trump’s supporters are deplorable was a mistake, as Clinton acknowledged. But some of them are deplorable, and many Trump supporters undoubtedly wish he would do more to distance himself and his campaign from them.
But it was Clinton’s description of the other half of Trump’s followers that is more revealing and provides a better explanation for the problems of her campaign. For if the first basket of Trump supporters consists of deplorable Americans, the second basket seems to consist, according to Clinton, of pitiable ones.
Presumably Clinton wants to win over at least a few Trump supporters, or people considering becoming Trump supporters, or people who have friends who are Trump supporters. But treating Trump supporters as a pitiable “other” is no way to win anyone over. Back when Clinton made the statement, she was still ahead in the polls and may have assumed that she just needed to hang on to her voters rather than win over any waverers tempted by Trump. This was always hubristic but now seems downright foolish.
Can Clinton change her ways? Can she stop condemning or pitying her fellow Americans? Hillary Clinton obviously lacks the political instincts of her husband. Bill Clinton rarely condemned or pitied his fellow Americans. He claimed to stand with hard-working Americans who played by the rules. He famously said to the American people, “I feel your pain.” He identified, or pretended to identify, with the people. But he didn’t pity them.
Hillary Clinton says, “Those are people we have to understand and empathize with.” Saying you have to do something is very different from doing it. Indeed, it’s an acknowledgment you’re not yet doing it. But she’s had plenty of notice over the last couple of years that understanding and empathizing with people might be a good idea.
Bill Clinton’s rhetoric was, from a conservative and constitutionalist point of view, not admirable. It set the stand-ard for a president as identifying with and feeling with the people, rather than representing them and seeking, in the words of Federalist 10, “to refine and enlarge the public views.” But in a democratic age Bill Clinton’s presentation of himself was effective. And Barack Obama learned from Bill Clinton. Obama’s campaign was, or pretended to be, about the people and not just himself: “We are the ones we have been waiting for.”
By telling contrast, Hillary Clinton presents herself as the one we’ve been waiting for: “I’m with her.” And it was this slogan that set up Donald Trump’s effective riposte, “I’m with you.” Hillary, Trump was saying, wants you to stand with her. Trump wants, or pretends to want, to stand with you. This is a winning contrast for Trump.
The voters whom Trump is standing with are by no means only “let-down,” “desperate,” “dead-end” types. In a year when Americans of all income groups and education levels think the country is on the wrong track, Trump as the candidate of change is getting support from all income groups and education levels. His support skews more white working-class than a typical Republican, but in recent polls he’s almost breaking even among college-educated whites and among voters making over $100,000 a year.
So Trump is getting support from well-off, well-educated, nondesperate Americans who either think we need to shake things up, or who think his administration would be more conservative than Hillary Clinton’s, or who care about the Supreme Court, and for many other reasons. These Americans may well be mistaken. But they’re not likely to be persuaded of the error of their ways when they see Hil-lary Clinton casting Trump supporters into two baskets, the deplorable and the pitiable.
Trump is Trump. He could easily blow his chances to win this election, or he could simply fall short of overcoming the demographic and electoral barriers. But in a year when the electorate wants change, he has the wind at his back. He’s been lucky to have as his foils first Jeb Bush, the son and brother of former presidents, and now Hillary Clinton, the wife of a former president. Bush and Clinton both seem to embody a message of No Change. And Clinton’s given the voters little reason to rethink that. If Trump can avoid revealing once again the very worst aspects of his character, he has a real chance to win.
Hillary Clinton thinks of herself as a historic figure, breaking glass ceilings right and left. In fact, you’d be hardpressed to find particularly impressive achievements from her time as senator from New York or secretary of state. If she now wants to do something historic, she might run a serious campaign for the White House, not just against Donald Trump. For it may be that the only way to deny Donald Trump the presidency is for Hillary Clinton to make a plausible case for it. It is amazing that we have come to this pass. But America is an amazing country.
