Thirty-seven years is a long time to wait for a phone call. That’s how it must have felt to the Taiwanese people when their president, Tsai Ing-wen, had a 10-minute talk with Donald Trump on December 2—the first direct conversation between a Taiwanese leader and a U.S. president or president-elect since 1979.
The phone call, which was reportedly midwifed by Bob Dole, who lobbies for Taiwan, was a laudable display of solidarity with a beleaguered ally and a beacon of democratic values. Taiwan is one of the world’s great success stories and all the more impressive for what it has achieved under stifling pressure. When Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist forces fled to the small island in 1949 after being routed by Mao’s Communist army, Taiwan was an impoverished, largely agricultural economy. And the Republic of China government that Chiang established in Taipei was repressive—a one-party state with severe restrictions on civil liberties and political rights.
Fast forward to today, and Taiwan is a marvel. After a peaceful transition to democracy, Taiwan now boasts a raucous free press and competitive elections. The country has just elected its first female leader: a liberal, gay-marriage-supporting law professor. Its export-driven economy is a powerhouse; despite its small size, Taiwan is America’s ninth-largest trading partner. And Taipei is a wonder of urban redevelopment: The formerly gritty, industrial center—once known as Asia’s ugly duckling—now features lush parks, a world-beating subway system, fabulous restaurants, and the world’s eighth-tallest building. Taiwan’s very existence stands as a powerful rejoinder to two myths that Beijing likes to propagate: that the mainland’s style of state-run economics is a more reliable way to lift incomes than the free market, and that the Chinese people are somehow “unsuited” to democracy.
It is no doubt in part for this reason that Beijing has persisted in a largely successful campaign to ostracize Taiwan, which it officially views as an illegitimate breakaway province. Today, only 22 countries have diplomatic relations with Taiwan—and 6 of those are obscure South Pacific islands (no offense, Tuvalu). The United States hasn’t officially recognized Taiwan since 1979, when our Chinese embassy moved from Taipei to Beijing. Taiwan can’t fly its own flag at the Olympics and can only compete under the name “Chinese Taipei.” Just this year, Taiwan has been shut out of important global meetings, including the U.N.’s aviation safety confab in Montreal and an INTERPOL conference in Bali. And China, unhappy with President Tsai’s administration, has heaped extra economic pressure on the island as well. It sharply curtailed tourism from the mainland to Taiwan, for example, in retaliation for Tsai’s victory. Many Taiwanese are acutely aware of their nation’s Rodney Dangerfield status. They deplore that, despite their country’s laudable record, they just get no respect. Trump’s phone call with Tsai will do something to change that perspective.
Beijing, naturally, is unhappy with Trump’s phone call, as they are with any display of respect to Taiwan. Many in the American media, reflexively opposed to anything the president-elect does, also went after what he did and used the same arguments that the Chinese regime employed. They fretted at Trump’s breach of “protocol.” They said the phone call would “anger China.” (As if that, in itself, were the end of the discussion.) They said China would “retaliate.” Some of our more hysterical commentators said Trump’s courtesy phone call would spur “World War III.” They were nearly universal in their contention that if Donald Trump wants to talk to a democratically elected ally, he’d better check with the Politburo for permission—just to be on the safe side.
Yet in truth, Beijing’s scope for retaliation is limited. Fudan University’s Shen Dingli, a prominent spokesman for China’s official line, told the New York Times that were Trump to speak again with President Tsai after Inauguration Day, “I don’t know how you are then going to expect China to cooperate on . . . North Korea and climate change.” But China is already not cooperating on reining in North Korea, as it fears precipitating the collapse of that regime, which it views as an ally. Professor Shen is therefore threatening that China will do something that it’s . . . already doing. As for climate change? Beijing has its own, domestic reasons for curtailing emissions, namely the horrific air pollution that plagues many Chinese cities. Trump’s posture towards Taiwan is utterly irrelevant to the urgent task of cleaning the air. (Reached via email from Shanghai, Professor Shen seemed to concede this point: “China shall do what is good for itself and the world, incl. climate change,” he wrote.)
The benefits to Trump’s phone call could be significant, meanwhile. Not only will it boost morale among a beleaguered people who deserve American support—a good in and of itself—it also sends a message to Beijing that it badly needs to hear. While the United States sells weapons to Taiwan, the island is not a treaty ally—we are under no legal obligation to come to its defense in the event of a Chinese invasion. This is particularly worrying given the precedent that has been set by Russia’s successful annexation of Crimea. National boundaries, it is now apparent, can be redrawn with only minimal consequences. And the parallels are clear: Crimea, historically, had been part of Russia as indeed Taiwan had at one point been part of China. It wasn’t that hard to envisage Chinese strongman Xi Jinping going for the “Crimea option” at some point. That seems much less likely now that the U.S. president-elect has made such a bold stand in defense of Taiwan.
Trump’s shift towards Taiwan is all the more welcome for having been rather unexpected. The president-elect did not campaign on the idea that promoting democracy and bolstering U.S. allies would be key features of his foreign policy. What’s worse, Trump at one point seemed even to praise the Chinese regime for its violent suppression of the demonstrators in Tiananmen Square in 1989.
The chat with Tsai Ing-wen was controversial, yes. But this time Donald Trump made the right call.
