Seizing on Democrats’ return to power, Iran’s terrorist regime has signaled that it is willing to return to the 2015 nuclear deal — if President Biden meets certain preconditions, of course. But as desperate as Biden is to resuscitate that bad and ineffective agreement, he must recognize that Iran is in no position to demand anything. Rather than give concessions for free, he should approach the process with demands of his own because Iran will feel compelled to make a new deal.
After four years of former President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, the Iranian economy is in shambles. Iran’s exports of goods, including critical oil supplies, have plummeted to nearly zero. Its trade with the European Union has collapsed. Its currency is in free fall, inflation is soaring, and unemployment is above 10% (and much higher among the young). President Hassan Rouhani this month had his budget rejected by parliament.
Rouhani, who faces reelection in June, is under immense pressure to deliver economic relief quickly. Biden should not even consider helping him deliver that relief unless Iran agrees to a new deal that fixes the fundamental flaws in the old one.
At present, Iran is operating in breach of its obligations under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear accord. Having installed advanced centrifuges, it is conducting enrichment activity at the 20% purity level, which is far higher than the 3.67% cap imposed under the deal. Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that Iran’s “breakout” time to produce sufficiently enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon might now be as short as three months. Although Israel’s energy minister says it’s more like six months, with an additional year to develop a weapons platform, Biden should recognize that the circumstances of 2021 will not tolerate the culpable delusions of Ben Rhodes and John Kerry in 2015.
The White House has yet to clarify its expectations of Iran, giving its leaders confidence that they can frame the terms of negotiation themselves. A Kuwaiti newspaper recently reported that Iran has given the Biden administration seven demands in return for its restored compliance with the JCPOA. These include Biden’s commitment not to address Iran’s ballistic missile program, a prohibition against expanding the deal to include Saudi Arabia, and the immediate dropping of all American sanctions.
All these should be rejected outright, and Biden should make demands of his own.
The original nuclear deal failed to give unfettered international access to Iranian nuclear sites on demand; it created avenues for Iran to cover up its nuclear program under the guise of “civilian” use; it allowed Iran to continue ballistic missile development; and it included a “sunset” provision that loosened restrictions on Iran’s ability to enrich uranium after 10 to 15 years. The Obama administration was so desperate for a deal that officials also ignored Iran’s other malign activities and destabilizing actions in the region.
Saudi concerns over a new accord must also be addressed unless the Biden administration wishes to accelerate the nuclear arms race between the Saudis and Iran. Iran’s ballistic missile program must be tackled because those missiles have no purpose other than to deliver weapons of mass destruction. Finally, to remove sanctions on Iran without guarantees of compliance would replicate the worst mistake of the 2015 negotiations — namely, front-loading Iran’s benefits under the accord but deferring its obligations.
Biden should offer Iran relief only in return for its verified compliance on ballistic missile research, new inspections protocols, removal of any “sunset” provision, and a strengthened regional agreement.
Biden should also be clear that every option remains open to ensure Iran does not become a nuclear power. Absent that clarification, Biden risks inspiring hard-line elements in Tehran to push the negotiating boundaries because it believes it can have its nuclear cake and eat Israel with a nuclear holocaust.
Kerry’s old negotiating buddy, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, warned that “the United States has a limited window of opportunity because President Biden does not want to portray himself as trying to take advantage of the failed policies of the former Trump administration.”
Whatever he thinks of his predecessor, it would be an immense folly for Biden to flush away the leverage Trump left him.
