After three nights, and with President Trump set to cap things off with his Thursday speech, the Republican National Convention has helped clarify his campaign’s strategy to overtake Joe Biden in the final stretch before the election.
We can see from the programming that Trump and the Republican Party are trying to target several different groups of voters.
The first aim, which could be seen as the lowest hanging fruit, has been to win back voters that had been inclined to vote for Trump earlier in the year. These are voters that still planned on voting for him after he served three years in office, and even as he was being impeached.
In late February, Trump was at 45.5% in the RealClearPolitics national average and trailing Biden by about 4 points. This was relatively close to the 45.9% popular vote he achieved in his victory over Hillary Clinton, who hit 48% nationally. But then the coronavirus arrived, bringing both death and economic devastation. Trump’s performance has turned off more voters. In the most recent average, Trump has fallen to 42.5% nationally, or 7 points behind Biden, who is nearly at 50% support.
While it’s true that presidential elections are decided in swing states rather than nationally, Trump has already proven that 46% of the popular vote can put him over the top at the Electoral College, so we know that is at least conceivable. But considering how close the swing states were in 2016, it’s hard to imagine he could pull it off if he was closer to 42%. So, the first order of business is to win back the subset of voters who abandoned him since the start of the year.
That’s why the convention spent a lot of time focusing on issues that the Trump campaign hopes will shore up support among his most gettable voters. This is why there was emphasis on abortion, including the emotionally gripping account of Abby Johnson, a former Planned Parenthood employee-turned-pro-life advocate, and a defense of Trump’s pro-life record from Sister Deirdre Byrne. It’s why there were constant mentions of Trump’s tax-cutting and deregulation. It’s why many speakers emphasized “law and order” in the face of rioting in cities run by Democrats, and that Democrats do not condemn.
“From Seattle and Portland to Washington and New York, Democrat-run cities across this country are being overrun by violent mobs,” South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said on Wednesday night. “The violence is rampant. There’s looting, chaos, destruction, and murder. People that can afford to flee have fled. But the people that can’t — good, hardworking Americans — are left to fend for themselves.”
Speakers warned about Biden embracing the left-wing agenda, a point underscored by Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday night.
“When you consider their agenda, it’s clear: Joe Biden would be nothing more than a Trojan horse for a radical left,” Pence said. “The choice in this election has never been clearer, and the stakes have never been higher.”
Several speakers assailed “cancel culture.” One of them was Nick Sandmann, the MAGA hat-wearing teenager who was the victim of a media-led mob attack based on an out-of-context video clip.
The other noticeable aspect of the convention was how aggressively Trump is going after the votes of minority groups, to a degree that is perhaps without precedent by a modern Republican. Not only has the convention featured a number of black speakers, including Sen. Tim Scott, a black Democrat crossover speech from Vernon Jones, a strong endorsement from civil rights hero Clarence Henderson, and a breakout speech from Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron. These speakers hammered home specific actions Trump has taken on issues of importance to the black community. These include opportunity zones, permanently funding historically black colleges and universities, school choice, and criminal justice reform (as contrasted with Biden’s involvement in the 1994 crime bill).
The convention also featured Jon Ponder, a convicted bank robber from Nevada who reformed himself and started a nonprofit group for prisoners. Trump pardoned him live, which, whatever the propriety, was a dramatic moment that the president highlighted as “a beautiful testament to the power of redemption.”
Additionally, viewers heard from Myron Lizer, vice president of the Navajo Nation, about Trump’s actions that helped Indian tribes, and also witnessed a live naturalization ceremony for legal immigrants.
Though Trump has little hope of winning over a majority of minority voters, the purpose of these overtures is two-fold. Most directly, the aim has been to erode, to whatever extent possible, Biden’s support among minority groups. Relative to Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection, Clinton’s 2016 margin shrank a net 6 points among both black voters and Hispanic voters. Biden wants to win back at least some of the votes Clinton lost. Anything that Trump can do to prevent that gives him a greater chance of reelection.
But beyond the direct purpose, Republicans hope this outreach will also have the secondary benefit of appealing to suburban white voters. These are voters who may agree with Republicans on many issues but don’t want to worry that in the midst of a national reckoning on racism, they might be voting for a racist party. The efforts to highlight these speakers and issues is a way to make white voters comfortable that in casting a vote for Trump’s GOP, they are not, in fact, advancing white supremacy. And, of course, that is the truth — they are not.
