The best government data will be delayed again, thanks to yet another shutdown caused by the Democratic Party. But the best private data show rents fell again in January, the sixth month in a row, leaving them 1.4% lower than a year ago, the first decline in decades. President Donald Trump’s mass deportation policies are not the only reason for the decline, but they are a big contributing factor.
The Census Bureau declined to put a number on the decline of the foreign-born population in 2025, but the net international migration numbers released last week note that “the foreign-born population in the [Current Population Survey] declined from 53.3 million in January 2025 to 51.9 million in June 2025, a decline of 1.4 million.” Some communities bore the brunt of illegal immigration more than others, so the effect on rents from departing illegal immigrants will vary from place to place. It is noteworthy, however, that the Los Angeles Times, no fan of Trump and his administration, admitted last week that “communities targeted by immigration officers, such as Long Beach and East L.A., saw a jump in vacancies.”
Deportations are not the only reason rents are falling. Many homes are coming available because of permitting reforms that have made construction easier and less expensive. Austin, Texas, for example, has a booming economy with thousands of new jobs added every month. Aggressive housing construction has kept up, and Austin leads the league in falling rents, with prices 6.3% lower today than a year ago.
San Francisco and New York have taken the opposite approach, using economically illiterate rent control policies to try to keep prices low. But rent control discourages investment and leaves some communities with not only fewer homes but also less desirable ones because rent-controlled landlords have no incentive to improve and maintain their properties. Another debacle is socialist Mayor Brandon Johnson’s attempt to build public housing in Chicago. He has spent billions of dollars to build “affordable” homes, but has only a few hundred units to show for it. Meanwhile, rents in the city are up 4.2% compared to this time last year.
EDITORIAL: THE BLUE STATE MODEL IS FAILING
Rents don’t rise or fall by chance. They are the product of policy. And falling rents do not materialize from the same policies that created the affordability crisis in the first place. Where demand pressures have eased because of mass deportations, and supply has been allowed to grow, prices are finally moving in the right direction, toward affordability.
Enforcing immigration law and allowing more homes to be built are doing more for renters than slogans and rent control ever did. If lawmakers are serious about lasting affordability, they should stick with policies that expand housing and reduce excess demand, not stand firm on regulations that have already failed in the most expensive cities.
