At first glance, President Donald Trump seems more powerful than ever. His party controls both chambers of Congress, and he just asserted dominance over that party by ousting Indiana state senators who defied him on redistricting, as well as successfully primarying United States senators in Louisiana and Texas.
But on closer examination, Trump has weakened himself with his revenge politics by alienating many Republicans currently in Congress. This all but closes the door on any chance of new legislation reaching his desk. Unless something drastically changes, Republicans are set to lose the House and possibly the Senate in elections this fall, setting the stage for gridlock and impeachment next year. All this makes Trump far less able to govern.
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Texas Republicans overwhelmingly chose Trump’s endorsed candidate, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in Tuesday’s primary runoff by a 64% to 36% margin. This came weeks after Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA), who had Trump’s backing, defeated Sen. John Cassidy (R-LA) in their primary battle. Both Paxton and Letlow are likely to keep the Texas and Louisiana Senate seats in Republican hands this November, although Paxton’s odds are considerably weaker than Cornyn’s would have been. If they win, Trump would gain two strong new allies in the Senate. But even then, neither would be sworn in until January, meaning they would not be available to help Trump with the urgent business he must conduct before then with the current roster of Republican senators.
At the beginning of the 119th Congress, Republicans held a 53-47 seat majority. Even then, Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) were not reliable votes for Trump’s priorities. Since then, Trump has bullied Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) into retirement and has, as noted, successfully primaried Cassidy and Cornyn. That makes five GOP senators who have no reason to support Trump’s priorities, meaning he has turned a 53-47 majority into a 48-47 majority-in-name-only that can’t even muster the 50 votes needed to pass a reconciliation bill.
Senate Republicans are rebelling. Trump had set a June 1 deadline for a second reconciliation bill fully funding the Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol agencies, but after the president announced a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund” for his political allies, Democrats forced a vote prohibiting the Justice Department from funding the program, and Republicans left town instead of taking the vote. There is no way Trump will now get his immigration enforcement money by June 1.
He sent acting Attorney General Todd Blanche to Capitol Hill to smooth things over, but that meeting turned into an “absolute s***show,” according to reports. When senators who have been stalwart supporters of the president asked simple questions about funding details such as eligibility, legal basis, and oversight, they were given inadequate answers. Instead of seeking a conciliatory tone with senators, the White House bluntly told them to fall in line.
“No one should be doubting how he’s able to bend everything to his will,” one White House official reportedly said about the meeting.
After Trump’s big wins in Republican primaries, one can see why some staff in the White House think his overweening power is a winning message among Senate Republicans. But Trump is about to find out that it is not. As noted, some senators, such as Collins and Murkowski, were never beholden to Trump, others have already been run out of the party by him, and others aren’t up for reelection for years. Fear only goes so far in the Senate.
Despite this, Trump is stronger within his own party, he has never been weaker with voters broadly. His disruptive tariffs and unplanned Iran war are driving prices up, and voters are worried about the economy. Even with redistricting, Republicans are likely to lose the House this fall, and Trump’s primary meddling has made holding the Senate more difficult. Paxton is a far weaker general election candidate than Cornyn would have been. He is divisive in his own party after being impeached for corruption — like Trump, he was acquitted in the Senate — and cheating on his wife. Some Republicans on Capitol Hill detest him.
DEMOCRATS SHOULD WORK WITH VANCE TO FIGHT FRAUD
Although Paxton is probably still favored to retain the Texas seat, it is uncertain, and it would not be the first time Trump’s antics have cost Republicans Senate seats. His drive to prevent the certification of the 2020 presidential election cost the Republicans not one, but two Senate seats in Georgia, handing them to the Democrats in a fit of pique.
Trump’s governing coalition has narrowed to the point of paralysis. Having taught lawmakers that only abject loyalty will guarantee safety, he now faces a Congress with little reason to cooperate. His lame duck era may be arriving earlier than anyone expected.
