U.S. intelligence analysts ascribe three different confidence levels to their assessments: high, medium, and low. These levels describe an intelligence service’s confidence in what it tells policymakers is happening.

Most analysts are reluctant to offer an assessment if the confidence level is only low or medium. Different intelligence services such as the CIA and NSA often disagree over the confidence they ascribe to an assessment. The risks of getting something wrong at that confidence level are significant. This bears note in light of NBC News’s reporting on Thursday concerning the Biden administration’s use of intelligence regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine.
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