<mediadc-video-embed data-state="{"cms.site.owner":{"_ref":"00000161-3486-d333-a9e9-76c6fbf30000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b93390000"},"cms.content.publishDate":1665501102249,"cms.content.publishUser":{"_ref":"0000017f-e2f4-de00-a7ff-e7fff8030000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"cms.content.updateDate":1665501102249,"cms.content.updateUser":{"_ref":"0000017f-e2f4-de00-a7ff-e7fff8030000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"rawHtml":"
var _bp = _bp||[]; _bp.push({ "div": "Brid_65499993", "obj": {"id":"27789","width":"16","height":"9","video":"1115262"} }); ","_id":"00000183-c799-d5ff-a7af-dfdff29e0000","_type":"2f5a8339-a89a-3738-9cd2-3ddf0c8da574"}”>Video EmbedMuch has been happening in relation to the war in Ukraine. I see four key topics worth consideration.
1) Let’s start with the nuclear attack concern. President Joe Biden says that we are now closer to nuclear Armageddon than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis.
Those words were unfortunate. Please, everyone, take a deep breath. Biden was being Biden, speaking off the cuff. It’s something that he has been doing since he first ran for public office four decades ago. The problem is that he’s president now and his words carry immense weight. Still, this is not a crisis on par with 1962.
First off, was Biden’s statement backed by hard intelligence analysis? From all the open-source information we’ve seen, the answer is no. The head of Britain’s GCHQ intelligence service echoed that point on Tuesday, saying that he has seen no evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is moving toward the use of nuclear weapons. The problem is that Biden’s doomsday talk plays right into Putin’s nuclear blackmail efforts.
Second, the military hotline works. I imagine that the intelligence channel is open as well. Remember, even during the darkest days of the Cold War, the intelligence community had ways of talking to the KGB. Reliable channels of communication between parties in a conflict are critical to ensuring clarity of purpose. Surely, the message today is that a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine would cause NATO to intervene and destroy the entirety of the Russian military in Ukraine.
RUSSIAN TROOPS POUR INTO BELARUS ‘BY THE TRAINLOAD’
What about our allies in Europe? Fortunately, there is no handwringing in front-line states. Look at the Estonian prime minister. Kaja Kallas says that we should keep up the pressure. Keep the boot on Russia’s military neck. So if the Estonians are not in a tizzy about pending Armageddon, why should we be hitting the panic button? Yes, these are scary times. But the fuss over Biden’s comments was over the top.
2) The next consideration is Ukraine’s attack on the Kerch bridge linking mainland Russia and Crimea and Putin’s response. I bet Sunday morning chatter over coffee went like this: Western intelligence and special operations personnel told their Ukrainian colleagues, “Hey mate, well done on the bridge!” Meanwhile, the policy/think tank/academia folks were crying, “Ukraine is winning, the end is near.”
Let’s be clear, this is a massive information operations win for Ukraine. A happy birthday present to Putin with quite lovely symbolism about “off ramps,” too, with destroyed parts of the bridge hanging into the water. The attack really demonstrates that this war is fought on many fronts. Ukraine has since trolled Russia mercilessly on social media. Kyiv is teaching us a master class on information operations. The impotence of Russian military and intelligence services is on full display. How do the leaders of these security-intelligence organs continue to survive while demonstrating such total incompetence?
Of course, Russia’s response was predictably barbaric. We’ve seen missiles strike civilian targets across Ukraine. But this reeks of desperation, not strength. Putin is not lashing out on the battlefield where he is losing, but rather against Ukrainian civilians. He seems to be reacting mainly for domestic purposes, as his nationalist right has been critical of the abject failure of the Russian military. So he doubles down on war crimes. It’s also worth noting that his new overall military commander for Ukraine is one of the architects of the mass killing of civilians in Aleppo, Syria.
But a question follows: When is the Biden administration finally going to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism? The State Department’s objections look quite hollow as the civilian carnage grows. And what about sending air defense systems and longer-range missiles to Ukraine?
3) It’s clear, however, that Putin is under pressure. According to the Washington Post, U.S. intelligence reporting indicates that Putin was recently confronted by a member of his inner circle over the disastrous direction of the war in Ukraine. It’s a shift from February, when the FSB presented a rosy picture that Kyiv would fall within days.
4) The OPEC+ cartel’s production cuts. This Saudi-led action seems designed only to hurt the Biden administration politically. It’s simply beyond the pale for an ally to do this (on top of the Saudis boosting Putin by providing him a boost in profits). All said, an indefensible move by Mohammad bin Salman should be made to pay a price, such as the United States withholding some military assistance. Democrats in Congress are rightly furious. And we should all be, as the Saudi move will hurt us in our pocketbooks.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Marc Polymeropoulos is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. A former CIA senior operations officer, he retired in 2019 after a 26-year career serving in the Near East and South Asia. His book Clarity in Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the CIA was published in June 2021 by HarperCollins.
