Belarus said it will deploy “a whole contingent” of its army along Ukraine’s borders during joint military exercises with Russia that are scheduled for Feb. 10-20. Dictator President Alexander Lukashenko’s announcement on Monday will reinforce concerns that Belarus may join Russia’s impending invasion of Ukraine.
Yet as war approaches, the Biden administration remains reticent to address robustly the growing security challenge to U.S. citizens and interests in Kyiv. Evincing as much, the State Department said on Sunday that in the event of a Russian invasion, “the U.S. government will not be in a position to evacuate U.S. citizens. So U.S. citizens, currently present in Ukraine should plan accordingly.”
At some level, this is a pretty obvious statement of fact. The disposition of Russian forces around Ukraine indicates the real possibility of an attack on Kyiv proper. This would clearly complicate the U.S. government’s ability to evacuate its citizens. It is prudent that nonessential personnel are now being withdrawn.
Still, the U.S. Embassy’s operations should continue. In that regard, the finality of the State Department’s language, “will not be in a position to evacuate U.S. citizens,” is alarming. It suggests the Biden administration has made a decision to suspend the U.S. Embassy’s operations if an invasion occurs. Another indication comes from the steps the United States is taking or, more accurately, not taking to reinforce the embassy’s security posture.
As of this writing, I understand that the U.S. is yet to reinforce security at the embassy. The Marine Corps’s Fleet Anti-terrorism Security Team is specifically tasked with this purpose. A FAST company is based out of Rota, Spain, approximately a 4 hours flight to Kyiv. But my questions to the Marine Corps and the Pentagon on whether and when the FAST unit will deploy have gone unanswered.
That seems like a neglectful decision — one that political planners, rather than military ones, are likely responsible for. Considering the scale and speed by which Russia could attack, feasibly shutting down Kyiv airport, it would seem to make sense to reinforce the embassy now. Waiting risks a FAST team being unable to enter Ukraine at all.
The delay is likely due to the Biden administration’s concern that Russia would misrepresent the Marines’s arrival as proof of a dastardly U.S. plot to turn Ukraine into a nuclear missile launching facility, and thus as a casus belli to attack. But Russia has already lied about the presence of U.S. personnel in Ukraine even though they aren’t even there. Top line: President Joe Biden should not fear Putin’s games to determine how and to what degree the U.S. protects its interests.
Regardless, the risk to the embassy isn’t primarily from Russian forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin would not want to risk forcing an already appeasement-minded Biden into a harsher response to his invasion. But he may want to use Russian intelligence officers or sympathetic agents to threaten the embassy and thus degrade U.S. morale and global credibility in a way that offers a pretense of deniability as to Moscow’s culpability. This is a favored Russian doctrine and a very serious concern: Deniable forces from Russia’s GRU intelligence service attempted to kill U.S. soldiers in Syria in 2018. And it’s not just about Russian threats. The embassy may face dangerously large crowds of refugees seeking evacuation, as in Kabul last August. FAST units are also trained to deal with this circumstance.
Why does it matter?
Security. But also because the embassy has a critical and continuing responsibility. It operates at the invitation of Ukraine’s democratic government. It is a symbol and servant for America’s interests and values. China and Russia would certainly revel in yet another U.S. abandonment of a friend in less than one year. But I can nearly guarantee that some U.S. personnel, especially from the CIA and the military, will want to stay behind even if an invasion begins.
Biden should thus take a lead for U.S. interests and ensure that the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv is ready for the hard days ahead.
