As China cements a closer partnership with Russia, India will have to weigh carefully whether its own relationship with Moscow is sustainable.
On paper, everything is rosy.
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Russia is a major military supplier to India. Rejecting a mix of U.S. inducements and pressure to abandon Russia’s export market, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prioritized Vladimir Putin’s favor.
Yet China’s threat to Indian security is growing. At the same time, via military exercises and joint statements of support (including over Ukraine), Beijing and Moscow have made clear that they view each other as valuable security partners.
This leaves India in an increasingly difficult position.
The New Delhi security establishment has, for decades, retained a laser focus on Pakistan. This is understandable. After all, the national pastime of the Pakistani security apparatus is the export of terrorism to India. In recent years, however, India has been forced to grapple with a second troublesome neighbor. As China’s military strength and political ambitions have grown, so, also, has its threat to India’s borders. The People’s Liberation Army has constructed roads and buildings in areas along and beyond the border that separates far western China from far northern India in the area of Jammu and Kashmir. It is rugged, mountainous terrain. China’s intent is to degrade India’s claims of sovereignty gradually by threatening India with the alternative of war. More than a dozen soldiers were killed during bloody skirmishes between the two nations in June 2020. China has occasionally inflamed matters by sending fanatical, rather than more diplomatically minded, soldiers to its outposts.
It’s in this context that India should reconsider its Russia relationship. While Moscow puts great value on its lucrative arms exports to New Delhi, it puts far greater value on its evolving trade, energy, and security relationship with Beijing. If and when the time comes, Putin will sacrifice India’s interests if doing so gains him a greater credit with Xi Jinping. That may take the form of suspended arms supplies in a crisis, or the provision of intelligence and other support to China. Russia may even provide China with guidance or technical means to defeat Russian military equipment in India’s possession. Regardless, it won’t be good for Modi and his 1.4 billion fellow citizens.
There’s a better course.
With Washington committed to its “Quad” partnership with Australia, Japan, and India, to expanded arms exports to India, and to growing military cooperation, it’s not as if Modi lacks an alternative to dealing with Moscow. India should consider the future. Only one nation offers India both the strength and shared democratic values it needs to secure its interests over the long term. That nation is the United States.
In the end, Russia cares only about making money on arms sales.
