Since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took Saudi Arabia to war in neighboring Yemen six years ago this week, the kingdom has seen its international image plummet. What the Saudis sold as a quick campaign against an unsophisticated bunch of armed tribesmen turned into its very own version of Vietnam, circa 1968. That is to say, a drawn-out and bloody chaos with no end game in sight. Other than the tens of thousands of Houthi fighters that have been killed (and easily replaced), the Yemen quagmire is all pain, no gain for Saudi Arabia.
That said, after years of insisting military victory could be accomplished, Salman is finally making peace with reality. Not only are the Houthis unlikely to be defeated on the battlefield, but the continuation of Saudi operations will probably empower hardliners in the movement who were never particularly interested in negotiating a way out of this conflict. The Saudis appear to have come to a simple conclusion: The drone and missile attacks on Saudi cities and oil refineries will remain a fact of life as long as the war goes on.
Enter Riyadh’s ceasefire proposal to the Houthis.
The Saudi peace initiative is a straightforward one. According to Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the Saudis will accept a nationwide ceasefire, permit fuel and food deliveries through Hodeida port, and reopen Sanaa International Airport to civilian flights. This would be designed to halt or at least limit the fighting and facilitate resumed negotiations between the Yemeni government and the Houthis. All the Houthis have to do is to say "yes."
Unfortunately, the Houthis don’t have a clear reason to say "yes" at the moment (a Houthi spokesman immediately downplayed the initiative). While the Saudi peace proposal is a good step in the right direction and demonstrates Riyadh’s renewed interest in getting out of a mess it helped create, Houthi officials aren’t blind to the realities on the ground. They look at the present state of affairs in Yemen and see themselves on the upswing against an anti-Houthi coalition that is as wobbly as an old rocking chair. Houthi forces are pressing on with their offensive in gas-rich Marib, the last Yemeni government stronghold in the north, and could very well capture the area in a few weeks. If it weren’t for Saudi airstrikes, Marib would already be in Houthi hands.
The war in Yemen is likely to go on until one of two things happens.
First, one side becomes strong enough to defeat the other militarily. Or second, the main parties to the conflict burn themselves out and come to the conclusion that they can get more by talking than fighting.
If there is any winner here, it's the United States — not because the ceasefire offer will produce peace or even be implemented, but rather because the mere act of Riyadh formally presenting it vindicates the Biden administration’s decision to remove the U.S. from the civil war. In the nearly six years Washington provided intelligence, logistical, and diplomatic support to Saudi Arabia, peace initiatives were few and far between. The initiatives that were proposed by the United Nations either collapsed, were bogged down over implementation, or died before they had a chance to work. Confident of U.S. backing, Riyadh could afford to voice a pro-peace position while continuing the war.
The Saudis, however, no longer have U.S. backing. With the United Arab Emirates no longer participating in air operations, the kingdom is now essentially prosecuting the war alone. Finding a route to peace is becoming even more urgent.
For years, there was an assumption that Washington could move Saudi Arabia in a more constructive direction by participating in Yemen’s civil war on the kingdom’s behalf. The opposite turns out to be true. By removing itself from a war it should never have entered in the first place, the U.S. is now putting more pressure on Riyadh to settle for peace.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
