From the moment Donald Trump announced his presidential aspirations in June 2015, he has dominated the political landscape. Trump’s turn in the spotlight has persisted for so long that it seems impossible to get away from him. Both his critics and fans are many. Though Democrats control the White House and Congress, they are eager to remind others of the Trumpian loyalty still alive within the Republican Party. But when it comes to elections, there is no placing Trump on a ballot if he is not running. This truth played itself out on the Nov. 2 election night.
The GOP has to answer for much in terms of strong allegiance to one man over conservative policies. The media may have hung on every word and treated him unfairly on many occasions, but the 45th president was often insulting, dishonest, embarrassing, and unpresidential. In terms of his election success, the 2016 win against Hillary Clinton was more a fluke than a foretelling. And losing to Joe Biden in 2020 was a significant disaster that most likely would have evaded any other Republican nominee. The loss can be attributed to many things, including a great deal of self-sabotage.
The Never Trump movement has always been a bipartisan venture. In the mix is an untold number of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Current and former Republicans who consider themselves to be Never Trumpers were quickly turned into party pariahs at the outset. Not liking Trump is akin to wholly embracing leftism or some such nonsense. For some voters, rejecting Trump meant only that: refusal to support him by way of vote. Actively considering Republican candidates beyond that? Well, all bets were off.
It remains to be seen whether Trump will jump into the 2024 race. Certainly, a large contingent of committed Republicans would like to see him have a second term. Trump is adept at making the news cycle all about him, which hasn’t changed much since he left office. In a recent interview on Fox News, Trump said of a 2024 run, “I think a lot of people will be very happy, frankly, with the decision and probably will announce that after the midterms.” The former president also commented on other possible candidates, saying, “A lot of great people who are thinking about running are waiting for that decision because they’re not going to run if I run.” In Trump’s mind, the Republican Party is still mostly about him. He’s not wrong in believing those in the loyal MAGA crowd prefer him over any other Republican. But he’s forgetting about those in the GOP, even those who voted for him both times, who desperately want the Trump chapter to end.
Staunch Republicans and Democrats are both under the impression that Never Trump is practically a segue to the left, or at least the political center. This is a misread. An unknown number of those who label themselves as “Never Trump” were and are biding their time until the man is off the national stage as an option. This isn’t to say they’re waiting for him to be out of the spotlight entirely, as that is unlikely to happen for several years. As long as he’s no longer on a ballot, they will again consider supporting other GOP candidates, especially of the presidential variety. In fact, ditching the Never Trump designation is a rather attractive idea. It was never meant to be for the long term — they only latched on to the man for as long as he sought or held office.
Democrats may be reeling from the recent election losses, but it doesn’t appear that they’ve learned many lessons. Voters don’t want a lurch to the left. Voters soundly reject having less control in school districts, and voters want to keep police departments intact. As Sen. Joe Manchin said recently, “We are a center, if anything, a little center-right country. That’s being shown, and we ought to be able to recognize that.”
Members of the Democratic Party are questioning their post-Trump strategy. It would be exceedingly foolish for Republicans not to do the same. It’s possible for Republicans to make huge electoral gains if they do two things: counter progressive policies with common sense and keep Trump off the ballot. This is appealing to Never Trumpers, such as me, who support conservatism but not cultlike obedience. Trump is a man, not a set of principles. And more than anything, his influence on our policies and discourse as an elected official has been disastrous.
Never Trump has been and is a powerful voting bloc. It’s also misunderstood. Republicans assume it’s filled to the brim with socialist acolytes while Democrats cater to it like the party’s only hope. But Never Trump matters little if the man himself is not on the ballot and a candidate’s policies and personality are inoffensive. The latter is not difficult to do when comparisons are made to the 45th president.
For conservative Never Trumpers, choosing between the lesser of two evils, Biden or Trump, was a decision they weren’t willing to make. Remove Trump from the immediate stage of influence, and Never Trump may no longer matter. Perhaps the Republican Party can even get back to business as usual. Will Never Trump be a short-lived phenomenon? Maybe. But that all depends on the decision of one man who still craves, seeks, and, yes, dominates the political spotlight.
