A fourth poll in the past week has Republican Glenn Youngkin and Democrat Terry McAuliffe virtually tied in their Virginia gubernatorial race less than a week from Election Day.
As with the three others, the new survey just out from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership shows stronger enthusiasm on the GOP side and Youngkin surging with independents.
But it is the latest that makes it look like Youngkin has just stalled at a tie with the former governor despite all the areas he has seen gains in.
Consider Wason’s analysis of the GOP tilt for Youngkin and the Republicans running for lieutenant governor and attorney general, for example. The analysis said:
unnamed.png“Democratic leads have all but disappeared. Independent voters continue to favor all three Republican candidates, while partisans on both sides are locking into position for their party’s candidates. We see a large gender gap emerging, with male voters shifting towards Republican candidates and women moving towards Democratic candidates. As Election Day nears, Republicans are increasingly more enthusiastic about voting, with 80% of Republican likely voters indicating they are very enthusiastic, compared to 65% of Democrats. That 15-point enthusiasm advantage was only 6 points in our October 8 survey (61% to 55%). Regionally, the hotly contested Richmond/Central region has tilted significantly in Republicans’ favor since our last survey, going from a 3-point lead to a 12-point lead (55% to 43%) at the top of the ticket.”
Youngkin has come from nine points back to be locked with McAuliffe, 48%-49% among likely voters, said the survey. That is squarely in the survey’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The poll shows that McAuliffe has flatlined for weeks.
But as with the other surveys out this week, Youngkin has not led McAuliffe in any, raising some eyebrows among Republicans.
A pollster not surveying the race said that despite all the Democratic heavies working to help McAuliffe, including President Joe Biden’s trip to Arlington last night, Youngkin is defying gravity staying even.
“He’s not taking many Democrats but is winning independents decisively. If turnout tilts his way, Youngkin will lead in polls. We may not see Youngkin ahead until the weekend. Democrats have a better early vote and absentee effort than the GOP, but Election Day Republicans and independents will come out,” the pollster said.
Still, he added, it is significant that McAuliffe can’t get to 50%. “Anytime an incumbent is under 50%, particularly against a newcomer, they are in trouble. It means the undecided voters do not want to vote for the incumbent who they already know and are very likely to break for the newcomer. McAuliffe has to stop that from happening.”
Here are the key findings from the Wason survey:
- McAuliffe has a razor-thin lead over Youngkin, 49% to 48%, among likely voters, which is within the survey’s margin of error. In this virtual tie, third-party candidate Princess Blanding’s 1% share of the vote looms larger, with another 1% undecided.
- Seeking a third term, Attorney General Mark Herring narrowly leads Republican Jason Miyares 48% to 47%, with 5% undecided.
- For lieutenant governor, Democrat Hala Ayala has a 1-point lead over Republican Winsome Sears, 49% to 48%, with 4% undecided.
- Republican likely voters are significantly more enthusiastic about voting in this election than Democratic likely voters (80% to 65% very enthusiastic), an advantage that has surged 9 points since the Oct. 8 Wason Center survey.
