The road to the House majority runs through only 11 races, according to an aggregate of election handicappers.
270towin, which compiles race ratings from the top five polling aggregate and analysis outlets, has identified just 11 House races in seven states for which Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, FiveThirtyEight, and Split Ticket agree that the outcome could wind up favoring either the Republican or the Democratic candidate.
MIDTERMS 2022: LIVE UPDATES FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL AHEAD OF CRUCIAL ELECTION
“To arrive at the consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, tilt, toss-up),” 270towin explains. “From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one. Only states rated safe by at least four of the forecasts are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map. This allows for a more inclusive look at states that could be competitive in the right circumstances.”
The margin of victory for either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump is calculated according to the new district lines following the 2020 census and is used for the first time in the 2022 midterm elections, not the districts as they existed during the 2020 election.
The 11 toss-up races that 270to win finds the most competitive are:
1. California’s 22nd District
Incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao is facing Democratic challenger Rudy Salas in a district that President Joe Biden won by 13.1% over former President Donald Trump.
2. California’s 27th District
Rep. Mike Garcia (R) is facing Democrat Christy Smith in a district where Biden beat Trump by 12.7%.
3. New York’s 19th District
This seat was left without an incumbent after redistricting, and Biden won by 4.7%. Democrat Josh Riley is facing Republican Mark Molinaro.
4. New York’s 22nd District
Republican Rep. John Katko’s decision not to run for reelection left this seat open for Democrat Francis Conole and Republican Brandon Williams to run in a district where Biden won by 7.6% of the vote. Katko was one of 10 Republicans who voted to proceed with Trump’s second impeachment.
5. Oregon’s 5th District
Progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) ousted incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader (D). Biden only won the district by 8.8% of the vote, leaving Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer a fighting chance against McLeod-Skinner.
6. Pennsylvania’s 7th District
Incumbent Rep. Susan Wild (D) is fighting to keep her seat against a challenge from Republican Lisa Scheller. Biden only won the district by 0.6% of the vote.
7. Pennsylvania’s 8th District
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), the incumbent, is facing Republican Jim Bognet in a district that Trump won by 2.9% in 2020. It was one of seven districts that voted for Trump in 2020 while having a Democratic representative.
8. Pennsylvania’s 17th District
Rep. Conor Lamb (D) decided to run for Senate rather than seek reelection, leaving the seat open for Chris Deluzio (D) and Jeremy Shaffer (R) to run in a district that Biden won by 6% of the vote.
9. Rhode Island’s 2nd District
Rep. James Langevin’s (D) retirement after first being elected in 2000 opened the race up to Seth Magaziner (D) and Allan Fung (R). Though Biden won this district by 12.7%, Fung is ahead in the polls and has made this race an unexpected battleground.
10. Texas’s 34th District
Two incumbents are battling it out in a South Texas district where Biden won by 15.7% of the vote. Rep. Mayra Flores (R) won a special election in June in the old 34th District that went to Biden by only 4% and is facing Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D).
11. Virginia’s 2nd District
Incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria (D) is facing a tough challenge from Sen. Jen Kiggans (R) in a district Biden won by only 3.1%.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
270towin also lists two races as tilting Republican and nine tilting Democratic. The next level of certainty places 20 districts in the “lean” Democratic category, while 14 lean Republican. Seventeen races are “likely” Democratic and 15 are likely Republican. Finally, there are 160 districts 270towin considers “safe” for Democrats and 186 that are safe for Republicans.
Republicans need a net gain of only five seats to take the majority in the House. They need a net gain of one seat in the Senate, where the two consensus toss-up races are in Georgia and Nevada. All 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for reelection every two years.
