Attempting to dominate neighbors and dictate the international rules of order for everyone else, the all-knowing Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, has unleashed the Indian hawk.
While China and India have recently offered signs of a detente, Xi’s imperial ambition is now clearly understood in New Delhi. In turn, India is boosting its capacity to defend its interests and its willingness to upset China in doing so. For one major example, India has now authorized the purchase of 56 new surface warships and 6 submarines over the next decade. India’s naval chief, Sunil Lanba, explained to the Times of India why this capability growth is necessary.
“The entire world’s attention is focused on the [Indian Ocean Region],” he said, “where our navy is increasingly seen as a net security provider. Our maritime security strategy is aimed at providing a maritime environment that is free from all forms of traditional and nontraditional threats to our national development.” The admiral added that his navy is boosting its forward deployed infrastructure and basing rights with the U.S. and France so as to provide greater operational range and sustainability.
This is a big deal. It reflects an overt Indian strategy to contest China in the Indian Ocean. When Lanba speaks of “providing a maritime environment that is free from all forms of traditional and nontraditional threats to our national development,” he is implicitly describing China’s strategic effort to control sea lines of communication and thus constrain foreign nations from economic interests that diverge from China’s own. India has seen China’s effort to militarize and dominate the South China Sea, and recognizes that nations like Vietnam and the Philippines are now caught between deferring to Chinese orders and risking being unable to trade freely through international waters. And India doesn’t want to ever be in that same position.
Correspondingly, while China won’t be able to apply its South China Sea strategy in the Indian Ocean in the near future, Beijing’s access to Pakistan’s Gwadar deep water port is a signal of its interest in shaping Indian Ocean trade. India thus wants to bolster its navy to enable its effective contest with future Chinese intimidation or aggression. This is a relevant concern in that China has a penchant for causing problems along its Indian border.
What does all this mean for the U.S.?
Well, in short, good things. The U.S.-led international order rests on protecting free trade and democratic security. And with India stepping up against China’s threat, the U.S. gains a powerful new partner to deter China from aggression. But more can be done here. While the Trump administration has prioritized India, the U.S. must make itself India’s better ally over Russia. We shouldn’t hesitate here: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pro-American, and America has far more to offer India than other nation in terms of shared values, security interests, and economic opportunity.
Regardless, India’s boosting of its naval power speaks to a growing alliance of nations that is unwilling to let Xi set the rules of the international game. Our future prosperity and the democratic peace depend on the success of that alliance.
