Biden departs for Mideast trip fraught with political peril

“Today, Iran feels very little pressure to compromise. With energy prices sky-high, Iran has found buyers for its sanctioned oil that — even with discounts —has produced a windfall for the only institution that really matters in the country, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which supervises the clandestine oil trade. Meanwhile, the Biden Administration has held off on penalizing recipients of Iran’s illegal exports for fear of worsening the energy crunch that has already driven gas prices to unprecedented levels,” writes Zohar Palti, an international fellow at The Washington Institute.

Palti argues that the Biden administration should reinvigorate oil sanctions and demonstrate a commitment to act militarily to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons. “Israel’s national security establishment will welcome President Biden’s visit with a mix of hope and fear,” he writes. “They hope that the American leader brings with him a dramatically different approach to the Iran nuclear challenge; they fear, however, that the president will persist in a policy that may have made sense when he took office 18 months ago but has since lost any relevance.”

IRAN SEEKS TO HELP RUSSIA WITH WAR IN UKRAINE, WHITE HOUSE SAYS

SKEPTICISM ABOUNDS: In his Sunday Washington Post op-ed, Biden took credit for making the Middle East “more stable and secure than the one my administration inherited 18 months ago.”

“That op-ed was a bit rich, full of revisionist history where Biden claims to have stabilized the Middle East in the past year, and completely ignores his appeasement strategy toward Iran with, you know, yet more promises of pallets of cash,” said Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL), a former Army Green Beret, in an interview on the Fox Business Channel yesterday. “At the end of the day, if you have to pen an op-ed defending your trip, you’ve got issues in terms of your narrative.”

While Biden insists he won’t be begging for Saudi Arabia to increase oil production to lower gas prices, which have torpedoed his domestic approval ratings, Waltz is skeptical. “He’ll be hat-in-hand, begging the Saudis to produce more oil because he refuses to [do that] here in the United States.”

“What I expect to be on the agenda is the ceasefire with the Houthis in Yemen, a greater cooperation with Israel, which is a good thing finally. I think that Abraham Accords may get some due attention,” Waltz told Fox. “I hope he’d also be discussing Saudi Arabia’s growing relationship with China and China’s growing footprint in selling them drones and all types of other weapons, and reminding them who their strategic partner is.”

BIDEN HEADS TO THE MIDDLE EAST WITH A WORLD OF TROUBLE AT HIS BACK

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

BIDEN HOSTS MEXICAN PRESIDENT AFTER SUMMIT SNUB

Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!

NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will be taking a day off this coming Friday, July 15. We hope to be back in your inbox and online Monday, July 18.

HAPPENING TODAY: The House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol holds another hearing at 1 p.m., in which the focus will be trying to show links between the extremist groups who stormed the Capitol and President Donald Trump and some of his inner circle.

“It will be connecting some of the dots. I think there’s some information that is not yet publicly known that will be of interest to people,” said committee member Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) on MSNBC last week.

Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL), who will be one of the questioners in today’s hearing, said on NBC’s Meet the Press Sunday that the seventh hearing will likely include video clips from former White House counsel Pat Cipollone’s closed-door testimony last week. “I think there was a lot of information that fit into this bigger puzzle that we’re putting together.”

A committee aide told reporters yesterday that the hearing will show how far-right groups such as the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and others believed they were acting at the behest of Trump.

“One of the things that people are going to learn is the fundamental importance of a meeting that took place in the White House on December the 18th,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) said on CBS Face the Nation on Sunday. “On that day, the group of lawyers, of outside lawyers who have been denominated ‘team crazy’ by people in and around the White House, came in to try to urge several new courses of action, including the seizure of voting machines around the country.”

Raskin, who will also have a leading role in today’s highly choreographed presentation, said, “Donald Trump was, of course, the central figure who set everything into motion. He was the person who identified January 6th as the date for the big protest.”

In what Raskin called the tweet “heard around the world,” Trump posted in the middle of the night, “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!”

BANNON’S GAMBIT: The Democrat-dominated committee is unimpressed with former Trump strategist Steve Bannon’s eleventh-hour offer to testify before the committee, after Trump waived executive privilege that legal experts said doesn’t exist.

“The claims of privilege, they were never real. He had no official role with regards to the White House with President Trump during the time that we`re requesting to speak to him about,” said Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) on MSNBC. “Mr. Bannon, he could show up tomorrow with the documents if he wants to do something in a good faith effort. But, you know, as of now, I don`t have a lot of confidence in his claims that he really intended to speak to us, or somehow these letters from President Trump have changed his willingness to provide valuable information to the committee.”

Trump has been frustrated that he has no defenders on the committee, that the hearing is essentially the case for the prosecution, with no opportunity for the defense to cross-examine present witnesses. If he thought Bannon might fill that role, the committee has other ideas.

“The way that we have treated every single witness is the same, that they come in, they talk to the committee. If they’re going to take a deposition, they’re sworn under oath. It’s videotaped. It’s recorded. And then we take it from there,” said Raskin.

NOW IT’S UP TO THE SENATE: President Joe Biden is asking the Senate to make the U.S. one of the first NATO nations to ratify the accession protocols that would bring Finland and Sweden into the alliance in record time. NATO operates on consensus, so all 30 member states must ratify the documents in their various legislative bodies.

“I ask the Senate to continue working with my administration in advancing a strong and free Europe by providing its prompt advice and consent to ratification of the protocols,” said Biden in a statement. “We are encouraging all allies to act expeditiously in their own ratification processes as well, given current global considerations.”

MEANWHILE IN UKRAINE: The latest intelligence update from the British Defense Ministry continues to detail Russia’s manpower shortage.

“Russian Armed Forces’ personnel shortages may be forcing the Russian MOD to turn to non-traditional recruitment. This includes recruiting personnel from Russian prisons for the Wagner Private Military Company,” said the daily tweet from the U.K. MOD. “If true, this move likely indicates difficulties in replacing the significant numbers of Russian casualties.”

Russia, like Ukraine, doesn’t disclose its casualty figures, but some unverified Ukrainian estimates put the number at more than 37,000 killed, and as many as 120,000 wounded, a devastating toll that makes it hard to reinforce the beleaguered Russian fighting force, without declaring total and activating reserves, something Russian President Putin is loath to do.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to lob unguided missiles and indiscriminate artillery fire at Ukrainian cities, often hitting civilian targets, while Ukraine continues to target Russian supply lines with precision long-range artillery rockets provided by the U.S.

SEE IT: UKRAINIAN FORCES HIT RUSSIAN AMMUNITION DEPOT CAUSING MASSIVE EXPLOSION

INDUSTRY WATCH: Northrop Grumman is touting its role in building NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, which gave the world an amazing image that looks back in time to show galaxy cluster SMACS 0723 as it looked 4.6 billion years ago.

“Some of the most innovative minds in engineering and science came together to create the most powerful telescope ever launched and today, Northrop Grumman marks another historic milestone for our legacy of defining possible in space,” said Tom Wilson, corporate vice president, in a press release. “We’re opening a new era of space exploration with the first image you see today, thanks to the groundbreaking engineering and partnership with NASA and the science community.”

FIRST FULL-COLOR IMAGE FROM JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE REVEALED

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden heads to the Middle East with a world of trouble at his back

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian defense minister claims country amassing million-man force to retake coastal areas

Washington Examiner: SEE IT: Ukrainian forces hit Russian ammunition depot causing massive explosion

Washington Examiner: Putin extends simplified citizenship process to all Ukrainian residents

Washington Examiner: Iran seeks to help Russia with war in Ukraine, White House says

Washington Examiner: Parents of Israeli American girl killed in suicide bombing want Biden meeting

Washington Examiner: Biden hosts Mexican president after summit snub

Washington Examiner: Biden told officials to meet with Syria over Austin Tice, parents say

Washington Examiner: American detained in Venezuela writes Biden, pleading for help

Washington Examiner: Jan. 6 panel to hold hearing next week after Tuesday focus on extremist groups

Washington Examiner: Lindsey Graham ordered to testify before grand jury in Georgia election inquiry

Washington Examiner: Trump says Jan. 6 rioters were ‘smart’ to be mad in new documentary clip

New York Times: Russia Steps Up Attacks on Civilian Areas, Even With Advance Paused

Breaking Defense: Finland, in NATO and with the F-35, Forms a Powerful Challenge to Russia

Washington Post: Family of American missing in Ukraine says U.S. response is inadequate

Defense News: Navy Officials Say Pacific Exercise Is Not Aimed At China, But It Zeroes In On Defending Taiwan

AP: U.S. Warns It Will Defend Ally If China Breaks Sea Ruling

Reuters: U.S. Envoy Sees ‘Consequential Shift’ In NATO, Asia Ties Amid China Challenges

USNI News: F-35A Purchase Raises Questions Over South Korean Aircraft Carrier Program

Washington Post: ISIS Aimed To Attack Europe With Chemicals

Air Force Magazine: Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works Sees Value in MUM-T, Autonomous Aircraft

Breaking Defense: Lockheed Martin Delivers Airborne Laser LANCE to Air Force Research Lab

Task & Purpose: The Air Force Has Zombie F-35s It Keeps Using Long After They’re Dead

Defense News: Pentagon’s Secret JADC2 Plan ‘Evolving,’ Official Says, as Lawmakers Seek Audit

Washington Times: Schiff Seeks Rule That Would Block Oversight Of Some Military Operations

Washington Post: Nasty Weather Blew A Jet Off An Aircraft Carrier. How’s That Possible?

USNI News: Navy Weighing Recovery Of Super Hornet Lost In Mediterranean Sea

Air Force Magazine: Air Force Warns of Lower NCO Promotion Rates in Coming Years

19fortyfive.com: Putin Has A Problem: Russian Frontline Units are Running Out of Men in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: 120,000 Wounded: Does Putin Wish He Never Invaded Ukraine? You Bet

19fortyfive.com: Find Out What It Means for Ukraine to Fire 3,000 Artillery Rounds Per Day

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: NATO’s Goal for Ukraine Must Be To Defeat Russia and Replace Putin

Calendar

TUESDAY | JULY 12

10 a.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “Previewing President Biden’s Middle East Trip,” with Linda Robinson, RAND Corporation senior policy researcher; Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies; and Giorgio Cafiero, ASP adjunct fellow and CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation event: “Expert Perspectives on Russia/Ukraine Conflict, with Evelyn Farkas, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia; Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute; Seth Jones, senior vice president, director, International Security Program, CSIS; and Heather Penney, senior fellow for airpower studies. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

10:30 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Instability and the State of Democracy in the Sahel and the U.S. Policy Response,” with testimony from Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs Chidi Blyden; Molly Phee, assistant secretary of state for African affairs; Robert Jenkins, U.S. Agency for International Development https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Standing with Allies Against China and Russia,” with Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, D-Pa.; Dan Patt, senior fellow at Hudson’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and Bryan Clark, director of Hudson’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2133-virtual-event

2 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: “Policy Priorities for Biden’s Middle East Trip,” with Michael Makovsky, JINSA president and CEO; Eric Edelman, counselor at JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy; John Hannah, senior fellow at JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy; and Jonathan Ruhe, JINSA director of foreign policy https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

2 p.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Trusting the IC (Intelligence Community),” part of the “Future of the IC Workforce” series,” with Kelli Arena, chief of strategic communications at the National Security Agency; Neil Wiley, former principal executive in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Lindy Kyzer, director of content and public relations at ClearanceJobs.com https://www.insaonline.org/event/trusting-the-ic/

WEDNESDAY | JULY 13

10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Netherlands Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren to the Pentagon

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Middle East Missile Defense: Is the Drug Dealer Opening Rehab Clinics?” with Jonathan Schachter, senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East; Can Kasapoglu, nonresident senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East; and Michael Doran, director of the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/2131-virtual-event

1:30 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles to the Pentagon

1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Security Assistance to Ukraine: The State Department’s Role,” with Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Jessica Lewis; Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs Todd Robinson; and Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Kathryn Insley; and Dafna Rand, director of the State Department’s Office of Foreign Assistance https://www.csis.org/events/security-assistance-ukraine-state-departments-role

2 p.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Reform National Security Subcommittee: “Protecting Military Servicemembers and Veterans from Financial Scams and Fraud” http://oversight.house.gov

2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Advancing Soldier-First Modernization,” with retired Army Lt. Gen. John Morgan, partner at IBM Consulting; retired Army Col. John Kuenzli, human resources branch chief at IBM Federal and Army Account Solutions; Tom Saracene, regional vice president for sales at Salesforce; and Michael Parker, vice president and business development executive at Salesforce https://www.govexec.com/feature/Advancing-Soldier

3 p.m. 290 Wood Road, Annapolis, Maryland — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Maritime Security Dialogue: Naval Aviation Update,” with Navy Vice Adm. Kenneth Whitesell, commander of Naval Air Forces and commander of Naval Air Force at the U.S. Pacific Fleet; Navy Rear Adm. James Downey, program executive officer for aircraft carriers at the Navy; Rear Adm. Andrew Loiselle, director of Air Warfare Division, N98, in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations; and Ward Carroll, director of outreach at the U.S. Naval Institute https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue-naval-aviation-update

3:15 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies book discussion: Degrade and Destroy: The Inside Story of the War Against the Islamic State, from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, with author Michael Gordon; retired Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy; and moderator Bradley Bowman, senior director, FDD Center on Military and Political Power https://www.fdd.org/events/2022/07/13/degrade-and-destroy

THURSDAY | JULY 14

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference on “Homeland Cruise Missile Defense,” with Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerk, commander of the U.S. Northern Command; Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, commander of the U.S. Transportation Command; and Navy Adm. Charles Richard, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command https://www.csis.org/events/homeland-cruise-missile-defense

10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “Biden’s Trip to the Middle East: Objectives and Potential Outcomes,” with Cinzia Bianco, Gulf research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Zaha Hasan, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Middle East Program; Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now; and Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Xi’s New Global Security Initiative,” with Manoj Kewalramani, chair of the Indo-Pacific research program at the Takshashila Institution; Sheena Chestnut Greitens, associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin’s School of Public Affairs; and Taylor Fravel, professor of political science and director at MIT’s Security Studies Program https://www.csis.org/events/xis-new-global-security-initiative

10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Italian Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini to the Pentagon

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Regaining the High Ground against China,” with Diana Maurer, director, defense capabilities and management, Government Accountability Office; Derek Trunkey, principal analyst, Congressional Budget Office; Mark Gunzinger, director, future concepts and capability assessments, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies; Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute; and Timothy Walton, senior fellow, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-regaining-the-high-ground

2 p.m. — Brookings Institution discussion on “The National Defense Strategy and great power competition,” with former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; and Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Brookings Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-national-defense-strategy

2:30 p.m. 1200 16th St., N.W. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Richard Marles, deputy prime minister and defense minister of Australia https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson on the first image released from the James Webb Space Telescope.