BACK-TO-BACK SUMMITS: President Joe Biden departs this weekend for two summit meetings that could determine the effectiveness of the economic sanctions against Russia and the willingness of NATO and other nations to keep the supply of arms and ammunition flowing to Ukraine.
Biden’s first stop is the Schloss (Castle) Elmau in the Bavarian Alps, where he meets Sunday with leaders of the Group of Seven largest advanced democracies — the U.S., Germany, France, Italy, the U.K., Canada, and Japan, plus the EU.
“First, at the summit, we will roll out a concrete set of proposals to increase pressure on Russia and demonstrate our support collectively for Ukraine,” a senior administration official told reporters yesterday. “Second, we will address the impact of Putin’s war on prices rising at home and all over the world, including on energy security and food security.”
RUSSIA’S OIL REVENUES UP: The current sanctions imposed by 27 EU nations along with the U.S. and Canada have cut Russian oil exports, but the higher price of crude has actually boosted Russian oil revenues by as much as 50%.
“With higher crude oil and product prices globally, Russian oil export revenues are estimated to have increased by $1.7 billion in May to about $20 billion,” the Paris-based International Energy Agency said last week, according to Reuters.
European countries that are reliant on Russia for oil and gas are eyeing the coming winter, and according to a poll of 10 countries, “Respondents in Germany, Italy and France are most concerned with the impact of war on cost of living and energy prices.”
“There’s some question as to whether President Biden is going to be willing to take on substantial new sanctions since, you know, they are, arguably – maybe more than arguably – contributing to the inflationary pressures that we’re facing here in the U.S. and in the rest of the advanced world,” said Matthew Goodman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, this week.
“How do we maximize pain on Putin’s regime? How do we minimize spillbacks back to the rest of the world?” said the senior administration official. “And I think that’s exactly how the discussion around energy markets and energy market challenges will get framed and discussed by leaders this weekend.”
ON TO NATO: From Germany, Biden travels to Madrid for next week’s NATO Leaders Summit, where Russia, Ukraine, and China all top the agenda.
The 30 NATO leaders will be endorsing a new Strategic Concept, which will, for the first time, address the challenges posed by China, along with a new force posture for the alliance to counter Russia.
“Russia obviously continues to be the most serious and immediate threat to the alliance,” said the senior administration official, “But the Strategic Concept will also address the multifaceted and longer-term challenges posed by the PRC [People’s Republic of China] to the Euro-Atlantic Security.”
“The United States, as you have seen, is continuing to roll out additional tranches of security assistance to Ukraine,” the official said. “The president, as well as the administration, remains in very close touch with Ukrainian counterparts.”
FROM OUR MAGAZINE: THE RUSH TO ARM TAIWAN
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is already in Germany for a foreign ministers conference in Berlin on “Uniting for Global Food Security.”
“He will meet with the participants to advance global initiatives to address food insecurity, stemming from both Russia’s brutal, unprovoked war against Ukraine and the continued challenges posed by climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, other conflicts, and supply chain challenges,” said the State Department.
“President Putin is, no kidding, weaponizing food,” John Kirby, the NSC strategic communications coordinator, said this week. “He’s got an essential blockade there on the Black Sea so that nothing can leave by sea, and that’s, of course, how Ukraine has historically gotten its grain to markets.”
“The president’s working with leaders around the world to see if there’s other overland ways we can do that. And he’s exploring a range of options, and he’s keeping an open mind about how that would look.”
Blinken will brief reporters at 11 a.m. Washington time, 5 p.m. in Berlin.
STATE DEPARTMENT AND USAID ACCUSED OF WITHHOLDING INFO ON BOTCHED AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL
STARVATION AS A WEAPON OF WAR: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously passed a resolution yesterday condemning starvation as a weapon of war.
“The resolution we passed today condemns the deliberate use of hunger as a weapon of war and calls upon the U.S. government and our partners to respond to needs in real time and hold perpetrators accountable,” said Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID). “It is critical we use every tool at our disposal to ensure food assistance is not being manipulated or used against the civilians that so desperately need it.”
“Conflict is a major driver of food insecurity, and warring factions in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen continue to engage in the willful destruction of agricultural goods and infrastructure, manipulate markets, and impose security and bureaucratic barriers upon humanitarians — culminating in the deliberate starvation of civilians,” he said.
DECLARING RUSSIA A ‘STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM’: In a separate resolution, the committee called on the secretary of state to designate the Russian Federation as a “State Sponsor of Terrorism.”
The resolution was sponsored by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT).
“The committee vote was unanimous. We hope and strongly urge that the resolution be brought to the Senate floor as soon as possible,” said Graham and Blumenthal in a joint statement. “It is imperative Congress show support for designating Putin’s Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, putting them in the same category as Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Syria. The sooner this designation is made, the better for the people of Ukraine and freedom-loving people throughout the world.”
MORE HIGH-TECH U.S. ROCKETS HEADED TO UKRAINE: On the day when Ukraine’s defense chief said the first of the vaunted American High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, had arrived on the battlefield, the Pentagon announced that four more of the advanced rocket launchers would be sent to Ukraine from European stocks as part of an additional $450 million in military assistance.
That would double the number of HIMARS launchers from four to eight.
The latest package includes 36,000 rounds of 105 mm ammunition, 18 tactical vehicles to tow 155 mm artillery, 1,200 grenade launchers, 2,000 machine guns, 18 coastal and riverine patrol boats, and spare parts and other equipment.
“We get caught up a lot talking about HIMARS, long-range rocket systems, and artillery systems, and tanks, and all that. All those big ticket items that the Ukrainians say they need, and it’s true they do,” said Kirby this week. “But what they’ll also tell you is that the bullets and the small arms are making a big difference every single day because the fighting in the Donbas is close combat. A lot of long-range fires, lots of artillery, no question. But it’s a lot of small arms combat too.”
PENTAGON ANNOUNCES $450 MILLION IN MILITARY AID FOR UKRAINE
PULLING OUT OF SEVERODONETSK: With much of the strategic city of Severodonetsk reduced to rubble, Ukrainian commanders have concluded there’s not much left there to defend, so they are pulling out, ceding the ground to Russian forces, which have slowly consolidated their gains in the eastern Donbas region.
“Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area over the last several days and Ukrainian troops continue to suffer high casualties, but Ukrainian forces have fundamentally accomplished their objective in the battle by slowing down and degrading Russian forces,” said an assessment from the Institute for the Study of War in its latest update last night.
The pullback of Ukrainian forces came as they were at risk of being surrounded in Lysychansk, which is just across the Siversky Donets River from Severodonetsk.
A local commander told the New York Times that it no longer made sense to try to hold the city. “The number of people killed will increase every day,” he said. “It was decided that our defenders would retreat to new positions, fortified areas, and from there conduct hostilities and inflict damage on the enemy.”
In its assessment, the ISW says the loss of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk will not represent a major turning point in the war. “Ukrainian troops have succeeded for weeks in drawing substantial quantities of Russian personnel, weapons, and equipment into the area and have likely degraded Russian forces’ overall capabilities while preventing Russian forces from focusing on more advantageous axes of advance.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: The rush to arm Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Pentagon announces $450 million in military aid for Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Six notable Jan. 6 committee moments about Trump pressure on Justice Department
Washington Examiner: State Department and USAID accused of withholding info on botched Afghanistan withdrawal
Washington Examiner: Blinken offers ‘some hope’ in call with families of Americans detained abroad
Washington Examiner: House Armed Services Committee passes defense spending bill with $37 billion bump
Washington Examiner: Vietnam-era helicopter crashes in West Virginia, killing six
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Congress hands China a win saving useless littoral combat ships
New York Times: U.S. Repatriates Afghan Whose Guantánamo Detention Was Unlawful
AP: European Union makes Ukraine a candidate for EU membership
Defense One: In Iran Nuclear Talks, The U.S. Has No Good Plan ‘B’
New York Times: Iran Dismisses Powerful Intelligence Chief
Air Force Magazine: HASC Won’t Force the Air Force to Hold a Bridge Tanker Competition
Air Force Magazine: House Proposes ‘National Hypersonic Initiative’ to Boost Coordination, Testing, Industry Expansion
Air Force Magazine: Processes May Matter More Than Technology in ABMS Creation, Generals Say
Defense News: House Defense Bill Calls For U.S.-Built Ships To Modernize Strategic Sealift Fleet
Politico: Robots, Marines and the Ultimate Battle with Bureaucracy
Defense News: Spain Finalizes $2.1 Billion Deal for 20 Eurofighters to Replace Old F-18s
Stars and Stripes: Space Force Graduates First Guardians to Train Under Service-Specific Curriculum
Stars and Stripes: China’s Newest Carrier Is For Regional Domination, Not Contesting The U.S. Navy, Experts Say
AP: FBI: Naval reservist said he stormed Capitol with Proud Boys
19fortyfive.com: Watch: Ukraine Used Drones to Drop Bombs on 36 Different Tanks
19fortyfive.com: Watch: Stinger Missile Blasts Russian Aircraft in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: The U.S. Military Needs An On-Time Defense Budget
The Cipher Brief: Analysis: China’s foray among Pacific Islands provokes U.S., Australian concerns
Calendar
FRIDAY | JUNE 24
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “War, Ukraine, and a Global Alliance for Freedom,” with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, fellow at Hudson; and Walter Russell Mead, fellow in strategy and statesmanship at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2122-virtual-event
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Delivering on Our Commitments in Space Acquisition,” with Assistant Air Force Secretary for space acquisition and integration Frank Calvelli https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
10:15 a.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies livestream event: “Investing to Deter in the Pacific” with U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. John Aquilino to discuss the current threat from China and military capabilities in the INDOPACOM area of operation. https://www.fdd.org/events/2022/06/24/investing-to-deter-in-the-pacific
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on a new report, “Boost-Phase Missile Defense: Interrogating the Assumptions,” with co-author Ian Williams, deputy director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project; co-author Masao Dahlgren, research associate at the CSIS Missile Defense Project; former Missile Defense Agency Director Air Force Lt. Gen. Trey Obering; Dean Wilkening, former senior staff scientist at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab; and Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project https://www.csis.org/events/boost-phase-missile-defense-interrogating-assumptions
SATURDAY | JUNE 25
TBA — President Joe Biden departs for Germany to attend the G-7 Leaders Summit at the Schloss Elmau Castle in the Bavarian Alps
MONDAY | JUNE 27
7 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters ahead of the Madrid Leaders Summit https://www.nato.int
TUESDAY | JUNE 28
9:30 a.m. — Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government in Madrid, Spain, with an opening speech from Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int
4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies hybrid event: “National Security and Artificial Intelligence: Global Trends and Challenges,” with Paul “PJ” Maykish, senior director of research and analysis for future technology platforms at the Special Competitive Studies Project; David Spirk, former DOD chief data officer; Neil Serebryany, CEO of CalypsoAI; Margaret Palmieri, deputy chief digital and AI officer, Department of Defense; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, International Security Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/national-security-and-artificial-intelligence
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 29
2 a.m. — Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg speaks to reporters as he arrives at the Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government in Madrid, Spain, followed by an opening ceremony at 4 a.m., and an end of day briefing by Stoltenberg at 7:45 a.m. (All times eastern). https://www.nato.int
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Committee markup of the FY2023 State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations bill http://appropriations.house.gov
THURSDAY | JUNE 30
6:15 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg press conference at the conclusion of the Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government in Madrid, Spain. https://www.nato.int
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The biggest point is, ladies and gentlemen, you have to vote — not based on every little issue that bothers you — but based on who is going to uphold their oath to the Constitution, because that is the only thing, only thing that matters.”
Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), one of two Republican members of the Jan. 6 committee.
