SOUNDING THE ALARM ON CHINA: As Adm. Philip Davidson wraps up his time as head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific command, he has a singular focus on what he sees as “the greatest danger the United States and our allies face in the region,” namely the erosion of U.S. military power in the Pacific, and the threat of an undeterred China bent on remaking the region in its favor.
“I think our concerns are manifest here during this decade,” Davidson told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday. “I'm worried that they're accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they've long said that they want to do by 2050. I'm worried about them moving that target closer.”
Davidson again warned as he has in recent weeks, that China could be emboldened to move to retake Taiwan by force before the decade is out. “Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before that, and I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years.”
THE ORDER OF BATTLE: Davidson briefed the senators in classified sessions before his public testimony, and he brought with him a number of charts showing China’s growing military advantage over U.S. forces in the region.
“Our conventional deterrent is actually eroding in the region. And it's because of the vast advances … that the Chinese have undertaken in both terms of capacity over the last 20 years and then in the next few years, the improvements they'll make in their capabilities as well,” Davidson testified.
In the classified version of the report Davidson submitted to Congress, he projects that by 2025, China will have three aircraft carriers to the one the U.S. keeps in the region, six amphibious assault ships to America’s two, and 54 modern multi-warfare combatant ships to six for the U.S.
“The three charts work together to show the change in capability and capacity that the Chinese have undertaken during the course of the 21st century and the relatively static nature of our own forward-positioned forces,” he said.
TIME FOR STRATEGIC CLARITY? Florida Sen. Rick Scott pressed Davidson on a key tenet of U.S. policy, namely America’s stance of “strategic ambiguity,” in which it does not say whether or not it would come to the defense of Taiwan if China attempts to take the island by force.
“I think it's time for the U.S. to state clearly that we're not going to allow communist China to invade and subdue Taiwan,” said Scott. “And that both Taiwan and the United States — we've got to invest the right resources, weapons, training, and dialogue to ensure that General Secretary Xi understands that he's not going to gain anything.”
“I wake up every day, you know, trying to assess the dynamic nature of the geostrategic environment,” replied Davidson. “You know, frankly, we ought to be thinking about these things every day. I look forward to the conversation.”
DETERRENCE, DETERRENCE, DETERRENCE: Davidson argues that the $27.3 billion in additional investments for deterrence is less than 1% of the overall defense budget and could restore conventional deterrence and prevent Chinese designs on its neighbors.
“Our deterrence posture in the Indo-Pacific must demonstrate the capability, the capacity, and the will to convince Beijing unequivocally the costs of achieving their objectives by the use of military force are simply too high,” he said. “Indeed, we must be doing everything possible to deter conflict. Our No. 1 job is to keep the peace, but we absolutely must be prepared to fight and win should competition turn to conflict.”
PACIFIC COMMANDER CALLS FOR URGENT FUNDING TO CONTAIN CHINA
AUSTIN’S FIRST TRIP: The Pentagon announced this morning that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will embark on his first overseas trip Saturday, visiting the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Headquarters in Hawaii, before continuing on to Japan, Korea, and India.
In Japan, Austin will join Secretary of State Antony Blinken for the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee hosted by Japan. In Korea, Austin and Blinken will attend a U.S.-ROK Foreign and Defense Ministerial.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken makes his first appearance on Capitol Hill since his confirmation, testifying at 1:30 p.m. before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the Biden administration's priorities for U.S. foreign policy.
Meanwhile, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hear from former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright at 10 a.m. as it examines the state of democracy around the world. Other witnesses include: Peter Biar Ajak, democracy fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy; Wai Hnin Pwint Thon, campaigns officer at the Burma Campaign U.K.; Nathan Law, pro-democracy activist and former Hong Kong Legislative Council member.
And U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Philip Davidson is back on the Hill at 11 a.m. this morning for round two, appearing before the House Armed Services Committee a day after his Senate testimony. Davidson will be joined by U.S. Korea Commander Army Gen. Robert Abrams and David Helvey, the Pentagon’s acting assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific affairs, to discuss national security challenges and U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific.
ALSO TODAY: As the flood of unaccompanied migrant children is overwhelming U.S. Border Patrol facilities, the White House is refusing to acknowledge the situation is becoming a crisis or to confirm that the number of children detained has tripled to more than 3,200 in recent weeks.
“Look, I don't think we need to sit here and put new labels on what we have already conveyed is challenging,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said yesterday. “What we have conveyed as a top priority for the president, what our policy teams are working on every single day.”
Psaki will be joined at today’s 12:30 p.m. briefing by Roberta Jacobson, special assistant to the president and coordinator for the southern border.
GUARD MISSION EXTENDED: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has approved a request from the U.S. Capitol Police to extend the deployment of some 2,300 National Guard troops for another two months to help guard the U.S. Capitol complex.
The 2,300 number represents nearly half of the current force supporting the Capitol Police, and the rest will be returning home as scheduled this week. A security review released this week concluded the Capitol Police force is “understaffed, insufficiently equipped, and inadequately trained” and recommended hiring hundreds of additional police officers, beginning by filling 233 current vacancies.
“During this extended period, DOD officials will work with the U.S. Capitol Police to incrementally reduce the National Guard footprint as conditions allow,” the Pentagon said in a statement.
JUMPING ON A NEW AUMF: Picking up on the Pentagon’s signaling that it would welcome congressional efforts to replace the existing Authorizations for Use of Military Force, which dates back decades, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith says he’s ready to get to work
“Much has changed since the initial passage of the 2002 AUMF, namely the democratic Iraqi government is now our partner in our counterterrorism mission. Given that the 2002 AUMF was passed to authorize the Iraq war, and because circumstances in the region have changed so significantly over the past 19 years, this authorization should be repealed,” Smith said in a statement.
“As a legislator and policymaker, I am glad that the Biden administration is willing to work with Congress to review the existing authorities. It’s not enough to just repeal the 2002 AUMF — serious reforms to the 2001 AUMF are also required, and I look forward to working on substantive changes with my colleagues in Congress.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: Asked at yesterday’s briefing about Smith’s disparaging remarks about the troubled Lockheed Martin F-35 program, spokesman John Kirby read from a crib sheet a defense of sorts.
“The F-35 remains the premier air system of choice for three of the Armed Forces, seven international partners, six foreign military sales customers. It routinely demonstrates high-end capabilities at the hands of our joint and international warfighters, and it's performing in combat operations from land and from the sea,” Kirby said.
“The department will continue the low-rate initial production at the planned rate that we're currently seeing, as directed by congressional authorization and appropriation, and we look forward to working with Chairman Smith and the committee as we work forward to address the needs of the department and the specific advance of this program.”
Last week at a Brookings event, Smith said, “What does the F-35 give us? And is there a way to cut our losses? Is there a way to, you know, not keep spending that much money for such a low capability? Cause as you know, the sustainment costs are brutal.”
And he called for a serious “scrub” of the program. “Yeah, I want to stop throwing money down that particular rat hole.”
ISIS POISED FOR A SURGE IN SYRIA: ”ISIS has established a stable territorial base in the mountainous regions of the Central Syrian Desert and has begun to overtake pro-Assad regime forces in the area,” says a new analysis from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
“ISIS is already using its territorial base to destabilize other parts of Syria. ISIS could attempt to seize new territory or financial assets in central Syria during its Ramadan campaign beginning in April 2021,” the group warns.
SHARP BUDGET EXPERT TO CSBA: The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments has announced Travis Sharp will return following the completion of his mobilization to active duty as an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve.
Sharp, who first joined CSBA in 2018, returns to direct the Center’s defense budget studies program, the group said in a statement.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Pacific commander calls for urgent funding to contain China
Washington Examiner: 'Case is not closed': Blinken demands answers from Iran on longest-held US hostage in history
Washington Examiner: Stuck on past tense, Biden team refuses to say Uyghur genocide ongoing
Washington Examiner: Judge: Capitol Hill insurgent, who worked as State Department aide, violated his 'oath to protect America'
Defense News: A Radical Plan Calls For Shifting Billions To State From Defense
Bloomberg: U.S. Cites New Threat to Carriers From Chinese Anti-Ship Missile
Agence France Presse: China Accuses U.S. Admiral Of ‘Hyping Up’ Threat Of Taiwan Invasion
Financial Times: U.S. And China Lay Groundwork For First High-Level Meeting Under Biden
CNN: Leaders Of U.S., Japan, India And Australia To Meet In First-Ever 'Quad' Summit
Yonhap: N. Korea Poses 'Serious' And 'Immediate' Threat To U.S., Allies: Davidson
USNI News: German Foreign Minister: Berlin Seeks ‘Transatlantic New Deal’ with U.S.
New York Times: In One Afghan District, Peace From 8 A.M. to 5 P.M.
Air Force Magazine: KC-46s Could Be Available for Limited Ops As Early as June
Military.com: Marines Should Reduce King Stallion Helicopter Buys Until Tech Problems Fixed, GAO Says
Air Force Magazine: Austin Slashes Hundreds of Volunteer Advisory Positions
Military.com: New SecDef Puts Climate Crisis, Rebuilding Alliances on Military To-Do List
Agence France Presse: France Conducts First Military Drills In Space
Navy Times: Sailors Say This Submarine Has Been Ravaged By Bed Bugs
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Pentagon and Lockheed Martin heads should roll over F-35 disgrace
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden’s Afghanistan plan puts al Qaeda in heart of Washington
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Joe Biden’s Afghanistan Policy Is Headed For Disaster
Forbes: Opinion: Biden’s Supply Chain Worries Signal A Looming Crisis In U.S. Security
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 10
9 a.m. — Day one of three-day Ottawa Conference on Security of Defense with U.S. Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Air Force Gen. John Hyten at 1 p.m. https://cdainstitute.ca/ottawa-conference-2021
9 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: “North Korea Beyond the Six Parties: Examining Ties with Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia,” with Hoo Chiew-Ping, senior lecturer at the National University of Malaysia; Alon Levkowitz, lecturer at Bar-Ilan University; Ramon Pacheco Pardo, reader in international relations at King's College London; Andreea Zaharia, associate researcher at the Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific; and Jenny Town, deputy director of 38 North. https://www.stimson.org/event/north-korea
10 a.m. — Day two the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Rocky Mountain Chapter virtual Cyberspace Symposium, with Erin Miller, executive director of the Space Information Sharing and Analysis Center; and Air Force Lt. Gen. John Thompson, commander of the Space Force Space and Missile Systems Center; Maj. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander of Air Force Space Command. https://www.eventsquid.com/event
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar with State Department Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko; and Anthony Cordesman, chair in strategy at CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific,” with David Helvey, acting assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific affairs; Adm. Philip Davidson, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Gen. Robert Abrams, commander, United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea.
12 p.m. 2172 Rayburn — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar with Lt. Gen. Laura Potter, deputy chief of staff for intelligence. https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/Noon-Report
1:30 p.m. — Hearing Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on "The Biden Administration's Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy,” with Secretary of State Antony Blinken. https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “The Army's Next-Generation Vehicle,” with Brig. Gen. Richard Coffman, director of Army Futures Command's Next-Generation Combat Vehicle Cross-Functional Team. https://www.csis.org/events/armys-next-generation-combat-vehicle
3 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual event: “Lessons from the West Capella Incident: Successful Naval Presence in the South China Sea,” with David Stilwell, former assistant secretary of state for east asian and pacific affairs; and Brent Sadler, Brent Sadler, senior fellow for naval warfare and advanced technology, Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/asia/event
4 p.m. — Institute of World Politics virtual lecture: “Seventy years of Chinese Strategic Intelligence Threats,” with former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Kenneth deGraffenreid, fellow in intelligence studies at the American Foreign Policy Council. https://www.iwp.edu/events/webinar
4:30 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual “Wednesday Wisdom” discussion with Dave Frederick, executive director of U.S. Cyber Command. https://www.insaonline.org/event
4:45 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittees on Readiness and Military Personnel Joint hearing: “Privatized Military Family Housing: Update on Implementation of Housing Reforms,” with Rick Taylor, president, facilities, operation and construction, Balfour Beatty Communities; Carolyn Tregarthen, managing director, Lendlease Americas; retired Army Maj. Gen. Al Aycock, Military Partnership Executive, Corvias Group LLC. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
THURSDAY | MARCH 11
9:30 a.m. G50, Dirksen — Senate Armed Service Committee hearing to receive “Final Recommendations and Report of National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service,” with Joseph Heck, chairman, Debra Wada, vice chair; and Alan Khazei, commissioner, National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project Zoom webinar on the current status, capacities, and capabilities of ISIS globally and in Europe, with Edmund Fitton-Brown, coordinator of the ISIL, al-Qaida and Taliban Monitoring Team advising the U.N.; and Guido Steinberg, terrorism analyst and adviser to the German government. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
11 a.m. — National Taxpayers Union and R Street Zoom webinar: “Pentagon Purse Strings Episode 3: An Interview with Lisa Hershman, former Chief Management Officer of the Pentagon,” with Jonathan Bydlak, R Street Institute; Andrew Lautz, National Taxpayers Union; Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. https://rstreet-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
11:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Aerospace Nation event: “Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum,” with Mark Schneider, senior analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy; and Stephen Blank, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
1:30 p.m. — Georgetown University's Bridge Initiative virtual discussion: “The Human Cost of Guantanamo Bay,” with Mohamedou Ould Slahi, author of Guantanamo Diary and Nancy Hollander, attorney for Mohamedou Ould Slahi. https://www.georgetown.edu/event
2 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual book discussion: The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan's Pech Valley, with author Wesley Morgan. https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-book-discussion
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast a discussion with 2021 Sam Nunn National Security Leadership Prize recipient Michele Flournoy, with former Sen. Sam Nunn, chairman emeritus, CSIS Board of Trustees; and John Hamre, president and CEO, CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events
3:30 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversation with Gen. James McConville, chief of staff of the Army. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/events
3:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Future Foreign Policy," focusing on nuclear weapons, with Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif.; and Alexandra Toma, executive director of the Peace and Security Funders Group. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
4 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Military Criminal Investigative Organization Reform Recommendations from the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee,” with Christopher Swecker, chairman, Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; Carrie Ricci, member, Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; Andrew Bland, former FBI special agent in charge, consultant for the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; and Mary Counts, Former FBI supervisory special agent, consultant for the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee. A second panel will include Maj. Gen. Donna Martin, provost marshal general and commanding general, U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Command; Brig Gen. Terry Bullard, commander, Air Force Office of Special Investigations; and Omar Lopez, director, Naval Criminal Investigative Service. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
6 p.m. — Politics and Prose Bookstore virtual book discussion on 2034: A Novel of the Next World War with co-authors former Supreme NATO Commander Adm. James Stavridis, and co-author Elliot Ackerman. https://www.politics-prose.com/event/book
FRIDAY | MARCH 12
9:30 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: "U.S. policies toward the Middle East during the Trump administration and lessons learned,” with former Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Simone Ledeen. https://www.mei.edu/events
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Innovative Technologies, and Information Systems and the Oversight and Reform Subcommittee on National Security joint hearing: “Final Recommendations of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence,” with Eric Schmidt, chairman; Robert Work, vice chairman; and Gilman Louie, commissioner, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual book discussion on Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century, with author Josh Rogin, columnist at the Washington Post. https://www.mccaininstitute.org/news/josh-rogin
12:30 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Polar Institute webinar: “Climate Security Risks in the Arctic,” with Norwegian Ambassador to the U.S. Anniken Ramberg Krutnes, Nina Borgen, deputy director of the Norwegian Security Policy and Operations Department's Security Policy Analysis Section; former Deputy Defense Undersecretary for Environmental Security Sherri Goodman, senior fellow at the WWC Polar Institute; Ole Jacob Sending, director of research at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs; Shiloh Fetzek, senior fellow for international affairs at the Center for Climate and Security; John Conger, director of the Center for Climate and Security; Kate Guy, senior research fellow at the Center for Climate and Security; Marisol Maddox, Arctic analyst at the WWC Polar Institute; and Michael Sfraga, director of the WWC Polar Institute. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/climate-security-risks-arctic
2 p.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “The Needs of Women Veterans,” with Rep. Julia Brownley, D-Calif.; Jen Silva, chief program officer at the Wounded Warrior Project; Tracy Farrell, vice president for engagement and physical health wellness at the Wounded Warrior Project; and Michael O'Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
TUESDAY | MARCH 16
6:15 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg releases his annual report for 2020. https://www.nato.int
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 17
10:30 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual book discussion on Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century, with author Josh Rogin, columnist for the Global Opinions section of the Washington Post. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I say to people all the time, missile defense is the hardest thing we do. And if I'm the manager of a baseball [team], I could have the best defenses in the world, but if I can't score some runs, I can't win the game.”
U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Philip Davidson, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday, on his need for ground-based missiles in the Pacific to deter China.
