FLEXING ITS MILITARY MUSCLE: For the next four days, the island of Taiwan will be encircled by Chinese warships while Chinese fighter jets invade its airspace and missiles are fired into the sea.
According to the Chinese Defense Ministry, the “combat training exercises” will on the tactics that would be employed if China were enforcing a “joint blockade” of the island to prevent resupply in the event of war, including “sea target assault, strike on ground targets, airspace control operation, and the joint combat capabilities of the troops.”
The exercises are the largest flexing of China’s considerable military muscle in more than two decades and come after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi led a U.S. congressional delegation to Taipei Wednesday in defiance of Chinese warnings. Pelosi and her party are now in South Korea, the next to last stop on her Asian tour.
The exercises have forced Taiwan to reroute commercial air and ship traffic around the exclusion zones where the Chinese military drills are being conducted.
CHINA SAYS MILITARY DRILLS SURROUNDING TAIWAN UNDERWAY
RISK OF MISCALCULATION: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, for meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN. Blinken and the other foreign ministers there issued a statement calling for “maximum restraint,” a “refrain from provocative action,” and expressing support for the One China Policy.
“ASEAN is concerned with the international and regional volatility, especially in the recent development in the area adjacent with the ASEAN region, which could destabilize the region and eventually could lead to miscalculation, serious confrontation, open conflicts and unpredictable consequences among major powers,” the statement said.
A separate statement from foreign ministers of the G-7 — the U.S., U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the European Union — calls on “all parties to remain calm, exercise restraint, act with transparency, and maintain open lines of communication to prevent misunderstanding.”
“We are concerned by recent and announced threatening actions by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), particularly live-fire exercises and economic coercion, which risk unnecessary escalation,” the statement said. “There is no justification to use a visit as pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait. It is normal and routine for legislators from our countries to travel internationally. The PRC’s escalatory response risks increasing tensions and destabilizing the region.”
‘PRETTY MUCH THE PLAYBOOK WE EXPECTED’: The White House continues to deny it ever specifically asked Pelosi to postpone her trip to avoid provoking China at this time of rising tensions. And in an interview on Fox, NSC spokesman John Kirby said China’s reaction was both predictable and unjustified.
“You might recall on Monday we said publicly that this is exactly what we would expect the Chinese to do in the wake of, or even during, Speaker Pelosi’s trip,” Kirby told Fox’s Bill Hemmer. “So this is pretty much the playbook we expected.”
“We urge Beijing not to escalate the tensions. There’s no reason to. Nothing about Speaker Pelosi’s trip was inconsistent with our long-standing approach to both China and supporting Taiwan’s self-defense,” he said.
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SENATE APPROVES NATO EXPANSION 95-1: The United States became the 22nd NATO nation to ratify the articles of accession that would expand the alliance with the addition of Finland and Sweden, who sought membership in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had urged unanimous approval, calling the addition of the two highly-capable Nordic nations a “slam-dunk” for U.S. national security. But there was one outlier, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), who took to the Senate floor to argue expanding NATO would do nothing to protect “our freedom, our people, and our way of life.” The final vote was 95-1, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) voting present.
Hawley was roundly rebutted by his Republican colleagues, who, to a person, argued adding Finland and Sweden would make the alliance stronger.
“I am surprised by the short-sightedness of colleagues,” said Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE). “Retreating from our alliances would embolden the Chinese Communist Party in Asia, and it wouldn’t make our allies spend more on their defense budgets either. Strengthening NATO makes Putin weaker, Chairman Xi more afraid, and most importantly, America more secure.”
“Today’s ratification of Finland and Sweden as new members of NATO sends a strong message of transatlantic unity and U.S. commitment to the NATO alliance,” said Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID). “Both Finland and Sweden have strong and capable militaries, and their membership in NATO will further deter any temptation by Russia to engage in military adventurism in the Baltic or Arctic regions.”
“The addition of Finland and Sweden will not only grow NATO’s military capabilities, it will strengthen America’s capacity to defend the homeland,” said Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA). “I believe our NATO allies must continue to share the burden for collective security, and after meeting directly with key leaders in Finland and Sweden, I’m confident these two countries are ready to stand up and help shoulder the burden for NATO’s military obligations in Europe.”
Eight more countries have to ratify the accession protocols before Finland and Sweden can be welcomed to the alliance: the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, and Turkey.
WATCH: SOLE SENATOR TO VOTE AGAINST NATO MEMBERSHIP FOR SWEDEN AND FINLAND SPEAKS
OBJECTION NOTED: A staffer from Sen. Hawley’s office complained about the headline on Tuesday’s newsletter item, “Hawley’s with Putin on this one,” in which Hawley’s position on NATO expansion as expressed in an op-ed (he’s against it) was juxtaposed with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position (he’s against it).
“No honest reading of the op-ed could come to the conclusion it’s about “siding with Putin,” the aide said. Objection noted.
ESPER: WIPING PHONES ‘NORMAL PROCESS’: Based on his experience with Pentagon bureaucracy, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper believes there was probably nothing nefarious about the erasure of text messages of senior defense officials in the Trump administration.
“I think what we will find is that this was just a circumstance of people leaving government two weeks or so after January 6th and their phones being wiped and cleared for the next person to take them,” Esper said on CNN yesterday. “I’m not jumping to any conclusions, it needs to be looked into, but my sense is, at the end of the day, it will come out to be normal process.”
Among the devices that were “wiped” were government phones issued to acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller and Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy, according to court records published on the website of the group American Oversight.
“The Defense Department and the Army stated in a court filing that ‘when an employee separates from DOD or Army he or she turns in the government issued phone, and the phone is wiped,” the watchdog group said. “The filing also said that the text messages of officials no longer with the agency ‘were not preserved and therefore could not be searched’ or produced.”
“I don’t necessarily know if this is some massive cover-up,” said Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) on CNN. “It certainly stinks to high heaven, but in the worst case, it is just failure to follow through on records keeping, in which case that in itself is an act that needs follow through on.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Senate approves NATO membership for Sweden and Finland amid Russia threat
Washington Examiner: UN to investigate attack that resulted in more than 50 Ukrainian POW deaths
Washington Examiner: Over 10 million border crossings from Ukraine to neighboring countries since war began
Washington Examiner: 3.5 million Ukrainians homeless due to Russian property destruction, Kyiv says
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian grain shipment sparks cautious optimism about food crisis and inflation
Washington Examiner: China says military drills surrounding Taiwan underway
Washington Examiner: Chinese government summons US ambassador for reprimand over Pelosi’s Taiwan trip
Washington Examiner: Zawahiri strike reignites Afghanistan withdrawal debate ahead of anniversary
Washington Examiner: State Department warns of ‘anti-American violence’ following US killing of Zawahiri
Washington Examiner: WATCH: Sole senator to vote against NATO membership for Sweden and Finland speaks
Washington Examiner: Iranian leader plans to visit New York City after regime threatens to nuke it
Washington Examiner: US and South Korea will pretend to assassinate Kim Jong Un in ‘decapitation’ exercise
Washington Examiner: Federal government investigating Border Patrol agents accused of taking turbans from Sikh migrants
Washington Examiner: Senate weighs Electoral Count Act reforms to prevent Jan. 6 repeat
Washington Examiner: Opinion: The Biden administration is shocked that the Taliban are untrustworthy
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Good riddance: The elimination of al Qaeda’s top terrorist and the troubling questions it raises
New York Times: More Than A Show: China’s Exercises Help It Practice Seizing Taiwan
New York Times: What Could U.S. Do If China Were To Put A Slow Squeeze On The Island?
AP: US says Russia aims to fabricate evidence in prison deaths
AP: UN nuclear chief: Ukraine nuclear plant is `out of control’
AP: Ukraine President Zelenskyy says China must not help Russia
AP: Analysis: Iran now speaking openly on nuclear bomb prospects
Wall Street Journal: Iran Nuclear Negotiators To Meet
CNN: Secretary Of Defense Expected To Name A Military Officer As Pentagon Press Secretary
Defense One: Robot Ships Debut At RIMPAC, Helping U.S. Navy Sail Toward A Less-Crewed Future
Defense News: Four Ways To Kill A Ship: How U.S. Marines Are Focused On Controlling The Seas
Military.com: F-35 Ejection Seat Problem Was Discovered 3 Months Ago, But Jets Kept Flying
19fortyfive.com: Expert: U.S. Would Lose a War with China Thanks to Thousands of Missiles
19fortyfive.com: Russian Tu-95 and Tu-160 Bombers are Firing Cruise Missiles at Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: U.S. Air Force Releases Photos Of Mock B61-12 Nuclear Bomb Test
19fortyfive.com: China Has Started What Looks Like A Sea and Air Blockade of Taiwan
19fortyfive.com: China’s Worst Nightmare: Taiwan Wanted Nuclear Weapons
19fortyfive.com: Putin’s War in Ukraine Is Now Officially a Disaster for Russia
The Cipher Brief: Breaking Down the Taiwan Problem
Washington Post: Robert Simanek, Medal Of Honor Recipient From Korean War, Dies At 92
Calendar
THURSDAY | AUGUST 4
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Toward a Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis,” with John Culver, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Ryan Hass, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; and Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/towards-4th-taiwan-strait-crisis
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), United States Space Force and U.S. Space Command collaboration, current threats, and space acquisitions,” with National Reconnaissance Office Director Christopher Scolese https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/schriever-spacepower-forum
10:30 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and Counterterrorism Subcommittee hearing: “China’s Role in the Middle East,” with testimony from Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf testifies http://foreign.senate.gov
11 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual book discussion on “Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics in China from Mao’s Stratagem to the Rise of Xi,” with author Victor Shih, associate professor at the University of California San Diego https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/coalitions-of-the-weak
12:30 p.m. — Institute for Policy Studies virtual book discussion on “Whatever Happened to the Peace Dividend, and Can We Get One Back?” with Miriam Pemberton, associate fellow at IPS and author of “Six Stops on the National Security Tour: Rethinking Warfare Economies.” https://ips-dc.org/events/peacedividend/
2 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E. — Heritage Foundation discussion on “A Matter of Survival: The Future of Taiwan Arms Sales,” with retired Army Gen. John Keane; Lara Crouch, senior professional staff member at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council; Dean Cheng, senior research fellow at the Heritage Asian Studies Center; and Walter Lohman, director of the Heritage Asian Studies Center https://www.heritage.org/asia/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Whenever a military engages in a series of activities that include the possibility of missile tests, of live fire exercises, of fighter jets buzzing around the skies and ships moving around on the seas, the possibility of some kind of incident is real. And we believe that what China is doing here is not responsible. We believe that it is escalating tensions unnecessarily. And this is particularly so because what the speaker did in visiting Taiwan is not unprecedented, it is not threatening to China, it is not out of the historical norm.”
Jake Sullivan, White House national security adviser, on NPR Wednesday.
