A TICKING TIME BOMB: As U.S. Central Commander, Gen. Frank McKenzie has a lot of challenges in his area of responsibility, which stretches from Israel to Afghanistan and everything in between. That includes wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and of course, Afghanistan.
But the biggest problem he sees does not have a military solution and threatened to perpetuate the threat from ISIS extremists into the next generation. At an event sponsored by the Middle East Institute yesterday, McKenzie warned that the 10,000 ISIS fighters now in detention camps in Syria, along with more than 60,000 refugees displaced by war, are a ticking time bomb that if not addressed, will spawn a new crop of terrorists.
“Unless the international community finds a way to repatriate, reintegrate into home communities, and support locally grown reconciliation programs, we will bear witness to the indoctrination of the next generation of ISIS as these children become radicalized,” McKenzie warns. “Failing to address this now means ISIS will never be truly defeated, as the ideology will continue well into the future.”
EVEN THE BRIGHTEST FUTURE WON’T BE BLOODLESS: McKenzie says despite its “territorial defeat,” ISIS remains “a learning and adaptable” extremist organization and is far from defeated.
“In my assessment, it has for the time being gone to ground but with the goals of maintaining its insurgency in Iraq and Syria and a global cyber presence, while building and retaining a cellular structure which allows it to carry out terrorist attacks,” McKenzie said. “I firmly believe we will need to maintain constant vigilance to defend against the threat of ISIS or whatever follows ISIS, wherever it looms. Even the brightest possible future will not be a bloodless future.”
THE PERCEPTION OF DECLINING U.S. ENGAGEMENT: McKenzie warned that both Russia and China are taking advantage of what he called the perception that the U.S. has been pulling back from the region under President Donald Trump.
“I suspect Russia will continue to challenge U.S. presence as opportunities present themselves, positioning itself as an alternative to the West by trying to mediate regional conflicts, selling arms without end-user restrictions, offering military expertise, and participating in regional and multilateral organizations and military exercises,” he said.
As for China: “China's current interests in the region are predominantly economic,” McKenzie says. “Russia and China leverage their proximity to the region, historical relations, and a perceived decline in U.S. engagement to establish and strengthen opportunistic relationships.
YEMEN: ‘WE WILL MOVE OUT SMARTLY’: As for President Biden’s decision to end U.S. military support for Saudi Arabia’s operations in Yemen, McKenzie noted that current support had been extremely limited.
“We will move out smartly to comply with the direction that we've been given. However, we will also continue to support the Saudis as they defend themselves,” he said. “Over the last several weeks, a number of attacks have been launched out of Yemen against Saudi Arabia. We will help the Saudis defend against those attacks by giving them intelligence, when we can, about those attacks.”
TALIBAN VIOLENCE ‘JUST SIMPLY TOO HIGH’: McKenzie would not tip his hand about whether he has recommended a pause in the plan to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by May 1, as required by a Feb. 29 agreement between the Taliban and the Trump administration.
“The matter is under review. And I would not want to get out ahead of that policy review for obvious reasons,” he said. “But I've had the opportunity to give input.”
That said, McKenzie said it’s clear the Taliban are not living up to their side of the bargain, which required a significant reduction in the level of violence and bargaining in good faith with the Afghan government.
“The level of violence is just simply too high,” he said. “The Taliban continued to resort to extreme violence with targeted killings across the country and frequent attacks on the ANSDF, Afghan forces, while they have mostly avoided attacking U.S. and coalition units.”
“Both parties have got to show that they're willing to make the concessions that are going to be necessary to find a political path forward. And frankly, I remain concerned about the actions that the Taliban have taken up until this point,” he said.
FULL TRANSCRIPT: You can read the full transcript of McKenzie’s remarks on the U.S. Central Command website.
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate meets at 1 p.m. to begin the impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump, beginning with four hours set aside for debate on the constitutionality of trying a president who was impeached while in office but subsequently left when his term ended. The question of whether the Senate retains jurisdiction under the Constitution to try the former president requires only a simple majority, which almost guarantees it will pass, and the trial will proceed.
“All parties have agreed to a structure that will ensure a fair and honest Senate impeachment trial of the former president. Each side will have ample time to make their arguments, 16 hours over two days for the House managers, the same for the former president's counsel,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. “If managers decide they want witnesses, there will be a vote on that, which is the option they requested in regard to witnesses … As in previous trials, there will be equal time for senators' questions and for closing arguments and an opportunity for the Senate to hold deliberations, if it so chooses, and then we will vote on the article of impeachment.”
CONFIRMED: Last night, the full Senate approved the nomination of Kathleen Hicks to be deputy defense secretary, a history-making voice vote that makes Hicks the first woman ever confirmed to serve in the second-highest ranking position in the Pentagon.
“Today, Dr. Hicks made history, and I know she will get right to work in this critical role,” said Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Jack Reed, after the vote. “She is a highly regarded defense policy expert who has served in multiple administrations with integrity and distinction.”
A former career civil servant in the Pentagon for more than a decade, Hicks was given distinguished service awards from three different secretaries of defense she served.
ALSO LAST NIGHT: Denis McDonough, former White House chief of staff under President Barack Obama, was confirmed by the Senate last night to be veterans affairs secretary on a vote of 87-7.
NEXT UP: The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee meets at 9:15 a.m. to hear from Neera Tanden, Biden’s controversial nominee to be director of the Office of Management and Budget.
THE BILLS PILE UP: The massive ramp-up from a mere 340 National Guard troops helping with traffic control to more than 26,000 troops required to man fortified barricades and unscalable fences after the Jan. 6 siege of the Capitol has racked up a bill of nearly half a billion dollars.
The Pentagon coughed up the numbers in response to a request from the Washington Examiner’s Abraham Mahshie.
“So, the estimate through March 15 is that the total cost of National Guard support will come to $483 million. $284 million of that is for personnel, and $199 million of that is for operations, and that gets us through March 15,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.
DEFENSE BUDGET LESSONS: Elaine McCusker and John Ferrari, two analysts at the American Enterprise Institute, are out with a new report with recommendations for the first Biden Defense budget, and it calls for a “bold, counterintuitive course” that advocates departing from “traditional narrow decision-making that hopes to avoid known consequences.”
Among its recommendations:
- Sets defense spending on a trajectory of 3% to 5% real growth.
- Prioritize force size over force structure.
- Prioritize the training of the force over the material sustainment of the force.
- Prioritize innovation over invention as the modernization strategy.
“This new approach should become the norm, with exceptions as needed. For example, hypersonic weapons do not currently exist, so the DOD should continue to focus research efforts on them,” the authors write.
“On the other hand, the department should consider whether the Army really needs to produce two new manned helicopters or it should focus on integrating autonomy in the current fleet. Should the Navy be planning to build 500 ships, especially after the challenges associated with the Gerald R. Ford-class carriers and littoral combat ships? Brand new builds may brief well, but they rarely succeed, because there are too many moving parts and no plans for joint, integrated operations and affordable sustainment from the start.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: White House says Biden did not change Iran policy with a nod of his head
Washington Examiner: Taliban's actions will complicate removing all US troops from Afghanistan, Central Command chief warns
Washington Examiner: National Guard deployment in DC will cost $483M through mid-March
Washington Examiner: State Department defends removing Houthis from terror list despite ensuing civilian attacks
Washington Examiner: Denis McDonough confirmed as Veterans Affairs secretary despite advocates' misgivings
Washington Examiner: House Republicans say Chinese doctor and coronavirus whistleblower deserves Congressional Gold Medal
CQ Roll Call: Senators Deleted Defense Bill Provision Intended To Combat Violent Extremism In The Military
NBC: Aircraft Carrier Failed To Enforce Social Distancing, Allowing Covid To Spread: Pentagon Watchdog
Reuters: North Korea Developed Nuclear, Missile Programs In 2020: U.N. Report
USNI News: French President Macron Calls For European ‘Strategic Autonomy’
Reuters: U.S. May Weigh Baby Steps To Revive Iran Nuclear Deal
Defense News: After Reshuffling, Israel Could Create ‘Opportunities’ For Regional Military Cooperation
Air Force Magazine: Report: USAF Can Relocate Fighter Squadrons, Go Virtual to Improve Training
Stars and Stripes: Aircraft Carriers USS Nimitz And USS Theodore Roosevelt Train Together In South China Sea
Military.com: Tiny Drones Are The Biggest Threat In The Middle East Since IEDs, Top General Says
19fortyfive.com: Turkey’s TF-X Stealth Fighter: A Replacement For The F-35?
19fortyfive.com: Russia Aims To Win The Hypersonic Weapons Arms Race
USNI News: Navy Brings ‘Precision Landing Mode’ Carrier Landing Assist Tool to New Fighter Pilots
Air Force Magazine: Design Gets Underway on DARPA’s ‘LongShot’ Drone
Breaking Defense: Navy’s New Unmanned Plan To Build In Critical New Data-Sharing Effort
McClatchy: Biden to review deportations of veterans, military spouses that occurred under Trump
WABC: Navy Cancels In-Person Fleet Week NY Events, Celebration Will Be Virtual For 2nd Straight Year
Military.com: How the Marine Corps Gave Leon Spinks His Shot at Greatness
Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Former USS Greeneville Skipper Writes ‘Open Letter’ To Families Of Crew Members Who Died In The Sinking Of Ehime Maru
19fortyfive.com: America Rejoining The JCPOA Won’t Help Iran’s Moderates
Calendar
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 9
7 a.m. — International Quality and Productivity Center's Defence iQ virtual 2020 International Armoured Vehicles Conference, with Maj. Gen. Peter Gallagher, director of the Army Futures Command's Network Cross-Functional Team. https://www.defenceiq.com/events-iav-online/
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Post-New START Arms Control: Lessons from a U.S.-Russian Bilateral Expert Dialogue,” with Amy Woolf, specialist in the Congressional Research Service's Nuclear Weapons Policy, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division; and Andrey Baklitskiy, senior research fellow in the Russian Foreign Ministry's Institute of International Studies. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
10 a.m. — Space Foundation virtual discussion: “State of Space 2021," part of "Space Symposium 365,” with Gen. David Thompson, Space Force vice chief of space operations; retired Navy Rear Adm. T.E. Zelibor, CEO of the Space Foundation; former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, former NASA astronaut; David Kaufman, president of Ball Aerospace; Tidiane Ouattara, coordinator of the African Union Commission's Africa Program; and Chris Quilty, founder and partner at Quilty Analytics. https://spacesymposium365.org
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Defense in the 21st Century," as part of the Smart Women, Smart Power series, with Kathy Warden, chairman, CEO and president of Northrop Grumman. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
12:15 p.m. — Middle East Institute and the U.S Central Command virtual 2020 MEI-CENTCOM conference, with closing remarks with Vice Adm. James Malloy, commander of U.S. Central Command Naval Forces. https://www.mei.edu/programs/defense-and-security/centcom-conference
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 10
TBA — President Biden visits the Pentagon
7 a.m. — International Quality and Productivity Center's Defence iQ virtual 2020 International Armoured Vehicles Conference, with Lt. Gen. Eric Smith, commander of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command. https://www.defenceiq.com/events-iav-online/
8 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: “The Security Environment in Western Pacific Waters,” with Emma Chanlett-Avery, specialist in Asian affairs at the Congressional Research Service; Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; Susumu Takai, president of the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan; and Kathleen Walsh, associate professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College. https://www.stimson.org/event
9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States webinar: “EU-Turkey Relations: In Search for a Positive Agenda,”” with Angelina Eichhorst, managing director of the European External Action Service; Fuat Keyman, director of the Istanbul Policy Center; Guven Sak, managing director of the Economic Policy Research Foundation; Zeljana Zovko, member of the European Parliament; Kadri Tastan, senior fellow at GMFUS; and Ian Lesser, vice president and executive director of GMFUS. https://www.gmfus.org/events/eu-turkey-relations
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual fireside chat: “India, China, and the Quad: The Future of U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific,” with Lisa Curtis, the inaugural CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program director; Demetri Sevastopulo, U.S.-China Correspondent for the Financial Times; and CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine. https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group webinar: “Warfighter and Intelligence Mission Success," with retired Lt. Gen. Karen Gibson, former deputy director of national intelligence for national security partnerships in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; and Nand Mulchanandi, chief technology officer in the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center. https://awsnatsecseries.com
1 p.m. — Association of Old Crows virtual discussion with Bruce Jette, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics, and technology, part of the Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations Leadership series. https://www.crows.org/general
5 p.m. — Meridian International Center virtual discussion with former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on "U.S.-China-APAC (Asia-Pacific) policy." https://www.meridian.org/announcement
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 11
2 p.m. — National Taxpayers Union and R Street Institute webinar: “Pentagon Purse Strings Episode 2: What the Coming Budget Battles Mean for Defense,” with Brian Riedl, senior fellow, Manhattan Institute; Jonathan Bydlak, R Street Institute; Andrew Lautz, National Taxpayers Union, Mackenzie Eaglen, Resident Fellow at American Enterprise Institute. https://www.rstreet.org/event/pentagon-purse-strings
4 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs webinar: “The Biden Administration and the World: What to Expect,’ with David Shambaugh, director of the GWU China Policy Program; Kimberly Morgan, professor of political science and international affairs at GWU; Marc Lynch, director of the GWU Project on Middle East Political Science; and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. https://calendar.gwu.edu/biden-administration-and-world-what-expect
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I'm afraid I can't speak for the Taliban. I'm only barely able to speak for the Pentagon right now.”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, at a Pentagon briefing, on Day 19 on the job.
