‘YOU’RE GOING TO SEE A SECOND FRONT’: As the war of attrition in Ukraine grinds into its sixth month, President Volodymyr Zelensky finds himself in need of a dramatic battlefield triumph that will show the world — and in particular his European allies — that Russian forces can be beaten into retreat. And Zelenesky has his eyes on the strategic Kherson Oblast in the south.
“It’s not just the city of Kherson. It is the entire province of Kherson. An area about the size of the state of Maryland. The capital city of Kherson, of that particular province, has about 300,000 population on a normal day,” says retired Army Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, who calls the province a critical link to Russian-occupied Crimea and the road networks to the north, east, and west.
For weeks Ukrainian forces have been clawing back small chunks of territory around Kherson and using HIMARS rockets to degrade critical bridges and supply lines while the Russians have been fortifying defenses in anticipation of a full-scale counteroffensive in the coming weeks.
“If President Zelensky gets his way, and he can generate several hundred thousand new fighting forces to go into that area to supplement and complement the resistance forces that have been going against the Russians that are seemingly embedded in that country, but are sustaining great casualties …You’re going to see a second front,” Hertling said on CNN, where he is a paid contributor. “It’s going to cause the Russians to be put on the horns of a dilemma, about the same time that there is an inflection point, in logistics.”
WINTER IS COMING: This “inflection point” becomes critical with only a few months of warm weather before the battle lines — and perhaps the overall conflict —are frozen in place and pressure increases on Ukraine’s European allies, who rely on Russian gas to keep their people from freezing.
“I don’t want to sound like a character from Game of Thrones but, yeah, winter is coming,” said Britain’s top spymaster Richard Moore at the Aspen Security Forum last week. “It’s important, I think, to the Ukrainians themselves that they demonstrate their ability to strike back, and I think that will be very important for their continuing high morale,” he said, “And to be honest, it will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe and that this is a winnable campaign by the Ukrainians because we are about to go into a pretty tough winter.”
“I think we do feel a tremendous sense of urgency, alongside the Ukrainians and alongside our allies, regarding both the battle in Donbas but also the fate of Kherson and southern Ukraine,” a senior defense official told reporters at the Pentagon last week. “We want to ensure that we are continuing to support the Ukrainians in maintaining their access to the Black Sea. And we are very alarmed by Russian plans to potentially annex additional territory. So, there is very much a sense of urgency.”
‘KHERSON WILL BE LIBERATED BY SEPTEMBER’: Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian ammunition depots and manpower concentrations in Kherson Oblast, “likely complicating Russian logistics in the region,” says the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War.
And an adviser to the administrative head of the Kherson region made a bold prediction in an interview with Ukrainian television over the weekend. “We can say that the Kherson region will definitely be liberated by September, and all the occupiers’ plans will fail,” said Sergiy Khlan, according to a translation in The Guardian. “We can say that a turning point has occurred on the battlefield. We are switching from defensive to counteroffensive actions.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: A “Wall of Remembrance Dedication Ceremony” will be held at 9 a.m. at the Korean War Veterans Memorial in Washington, during which an addition featuring names of more than 36,000 American war dead and 7,000 Koreans who fought alongside them will be unveiled.
President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol were scheduled to attend, but the president’s Wednesday schedule still shows him isolating at the White House while he recovers from mild symptoms of COVID-19.
In his latest health update, Dr. Kevin O’Connor, the president’s physician, said Biden’s symptoms “have now almost completely resolved,” and that he “feels well enough to resume his regular exercise routine.”
ZELENSKY: 40,000 RUSSIAN DEAD: Zelensky, who reveals very little about his own war dead, called on anyone who still has any contacts in Russia to pass along the Ukrainian military’s estimate of Russians killed in the war so far.
“For four months, the Russian state has not provided to its citizens any information — even censored — about the losses of the occupation contingent. Total silence,” said Zelensky in his nightly video address. “However, this number is already almost 40,000 — that is how many killed people the Russian army has lost since February 24. And tens of thousands more were wounded and maimed.”
At the Aspen Security Forum last week, CIA Director William Burns put the number of Russian casualties at a more conservative “something in the vicinity of 15,000 killed and maybe three times that wounded.”
Zelensky himself told the Wall Street Journal that Ukrainian casualties have dropped dramatically since the use of American HIMARS long-range precision artillery systems enabled Ukraine to target ammunition depots and command posts far behind enemy lines. In May and June, he said, Ukraine was losing between 100 and 200 troops a day; now, it is down to some 30 fatalities a day with around 250 wounded.
RUSSIA HAS TAKEN 60,000 CASUALTIES IN UKRAINE: CIA CHIEF
A GRAIN OF TRUTH: Russia claims its missile strikes on the port of Odesa, one day after signing an agreement to allow the safe export of Ukrainian grain and corn from the port, were aimed at legitimate military targets.
“The agreements signed on July 22 in Istanbul say nothing about preventing us from continuing the special military operation, which can include destroying military infrastructure and other military targets,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a visit to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. “The targets on which high-precision strikes were delivered were located in a separate, military section of the Odesa port,” Lavrov said, and “quite far” from the grain terminal.
The targets, he said, “included a Ukrainian Navy combat boat and an ammunition depot that had recently received Harpoon anti-ship missiles that could be used to threaten the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Now these ‘harpoons’ are no threat to us.”
The British Defense Ministry disputed the account, tweeting, “There is no indication that such targets were at the location the missiles hit.”
“Russia almost certainly perceives anti-ship missiles as a key threat which is limiting the effectiveness of their Black Sea Fleet. This has significantly undermined the overall invasion plan, as Russia cannot realistically attempt an amphibious assault to seize Odesa,” the British intelligence assessment said. “Russia will continue to prioritize efforts to degrade and destroy Ukraine’s anti-ship capability. However, Russia’s targeting processes are highly likely routinely undermined by dated intelligence, poor planning, and a top-down approach to operations.”
PLANNING FOR PELOSI’S POSSIBLE TAIWAN VISIT: The Pentagon is making contingency plans in case House Speaker Nancy Pelosi proceeds with her reported, but unconfirmed, plan to visit Taiwan with a congressional delegation next month, according to the Associated Press.
“Officials told The Associated Press that if Pelosi goes to Taiwan — still an uncertainty — the military would increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region. They declined to provide details, but said that fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets, and other military systems would likely be used to provide overlapping rings of protection for her flight to Taiwan and any time on the ground there,” the news agency said.
WHAT EXACTLY DID TRUMP SAY ABOUT 10,000 TROOPS? The Jan. 6 Committee tweeted out an audio clip of testimony of former acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller to make the point that “not only did Donald Trump fail to contact his Secretary of Defense on January 6th,” he also “failed to give any order prior to January 6 to deploy the military to protect the Capitol.”
The committee quoted former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows as telling Fox News in February of 2021 that Trump had given the Pentagon a direct order for 10,000 National Guard troops to be on standby for crowd control on the day of the riot.
Miller confirmed no such order was given, but in March of last year we reported extensively what Trump did say, according to Miller, about the need for 10,000 National Guard troops.
You can read that here:
TRUMP SAYS HE TOLD THE PENTAGON 10,000 NATIONAL GUARD TROOPS WOULD BE NEEDED JAN. 6 BUT WAS IGNORED
BOOT CAMP FOR WANNABE SOLDIERS: In the classic 1981 movie Stripes, Dewey Oxburger, played by John Candy, decides to join the Army because “it’s free” and he can “lose a few pounds.” “You got what, a 6- to 8-week training program here? A real tough one. Which is perfect for me,” his character says.
Facing what it calls a “precipitous drop in the number of young Americans meeting Army enlistment standards,” the Army is rolling out a pilot prep course to help potential recruits get in shape to serve in uniform.
“Only 23 percent fully meet the Army’s eligibility requirements, down from 29 percent in recent years,” the Army said in a release. “The effects of the COVID pandemic over the past two years have only exacerbated barriers to enlistment for many young Americans, with drops in test scores and rising obesity across the nation.”
The three-month-long Future Soldier Prep Course will debut next month at Fort Jackson, South Carolina, and it will feature both fitness and academic training to help aspiring soldiers meet body fat standards and pass the Army’s written entrance exam.
The course will surround trainees “with experts that they likely would not have access to at home,” said Brig. Gen. Patrick Michaelis, commanding general of the U.S. Army Training Center at Fort Jackson. “With the right instruction and professional support, we are confident they will be able to perform successfully and meet the standards expected of every soldier.”
ARMY LAUNCHES PROGRAM TO HELP WOULD-BE SOLDIERS MEET STANDARDS AMID RECRUITING WOES
CAN YOU NAME THE ARMY’S CURRENT RECRUITING SLOGAN? Didn’t think so. I’m told that after “Army of One,” “Army Strong,” and “Warriors Wanted,” Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville wants to resurrect the Army’s most successful slogan from the ‘80s and ‘90s, “Be All You Can Be.”
COMBATANT COMMANDERS ADVANCE: The Senate Armed Services Committee gave approval by voice vote to a list of 14 pending military promotions in the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, including two combatant commanders, Army Lt. Gen. Bryan Fenton, to be commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; and Marine Lt. Gen. Michael Langley, to commander, U.S. Africa Command.
If the full Senate approves, both generals will get another star, and in the case of Langley, he will become the first four-star general in the Marine Corps.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden to speak with Xi on Thursday as Pelosi trip to Taiwan looms: Reports
Washington Examiner: China threat: Military ‘won’t sit idly by’ if Pelosi visits Taiwan
Washington Examiner: US has ‘witnessed a sharp increase in unsafe’ behavior by China in recent months
Washington Examiner: Army launches program to help would-be soldiers meet standards amid recruiting woes
Washington Examiner: Trevor Reed says Biden isn’t ‘doing enough’ to get Griner and Whelan back
Washington Examiner: Griner’s defense team argues her marijuana use was to manage pain
Washington Examiner: Pence national security adviser endorses Trump, blames advisers for split
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Grain, gas, and Putin’s game: How Russia is disrupting the West
Washington Examiner: Ukraine hits key bridge in Russian-controlled city with HIMARS rockets: Reports
AP: US military making plans in case Pelosi travels to Taiwan
AP: Biden, Xi to hold talks amid new tensions over Taiwan
AP: 102-year-old WWII veteran from segregated mail unit honored
Air Force Magazine: Kendall Says F-35 Engine Decision Needed Soon; Won’t ‘Limp Along’ on R&D
Air Force Magazine: Townsend: Russia Added to Instability in Africa With New Air Defenses in Mali
Military Times: Could the Defense Production Act save Klondike’s ‘Choco Taco?’
National Defense Magazine: Air Force Testing Counter-Shooter Tech on Bases
19fortyfive.com: Not Mission Impossible: Yes, Ukraine Can Win the War Against Russia
19fortyfive.com: Buy More Ships and Renovate the Culture: The Navy’s New Plan to Prepare for War
19fortyfive.com: China’s 6th-Generation Stealth Fighter Plan Could Crash and Burn
19fortyfive.com: DDG(X): The U.S. Navy Has a Plan To Build Destroyers Armed with Hypersonic Missiles
19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Body Count in Ukraine Could Hit 50,000 Dead Soldiers Soon
19fortyfive.com: Javelin Strike! Watch a Russian Armored Vehicle Get Blown to Bits in Ukraine
Forbes: Opinion: Provide The Airpower Ukraine Needs To Win Now
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JULY 27
9 a.m. 10 Daniel French Dr., S.W. — Korean War Veterans Memorial “Wall of Remembrance Dedication Ceremony,” in which an addition featuring names of more than 36,000 American war dead and 7,000 Koreans who fought alongside them will be unveiled https://koreaN.W.arvetsmemorial.org/event/wall-of-remembrance-dedication
9 a.m. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of Arms Control, Strategic Stability and the Global Order,” with U.K. National Security Adviser Stephen Lovegrove https://www.csis.org/events/future-arms-control
9:30 a.m. Fort Bragg, N.C. — Association of the U.S. Army two-day, in-person “Warfighter Summit and Exposition,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville; Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston; Alejandro Villanueva, former Army Ranger and former offensive tackle for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens; as well as leaders from Army Forces Command, the XVIII Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne Division. Register at https://meetings.ausa.org/warfighter/index.cfm
10 a.m. 2322 Rayburn — House Select Intelligence Committee hearing: “Combating the Threats to U.S. National Security from the Proliferation of Foreign Commercial Spyware.” https://docs.house.gov/Committee/Calendar
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council New American Engagement Initiative virtual discussion: “Future Foreign Policy: A new nuclear era,” with Heather William, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Project on Nuclear Issues; Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Daryl Press, government professor at Dartmouth University https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ffp-a-new-nuclear-era/
THURSDAY | JULY 28
8:30 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group virtual conversation Gen. Stephen Townsend, outgoing commander, U.S. Africa Command https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
8:30 a.m. — Federal Computer Week virtual workshop: “Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC) 2.0: What’s Changed and What’s Next?” with Diane Knight, lead for the Defense Department’s CMMC Program Management Office https://events.fcw.com/cmmc
9 a.m. 1 West Pratt St. — National Defense Industrial Association 2022 Defense Conference and Exhibition, with the theme “Competition, Climate Change, and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Defense – Defining Challenges/Delivering Solutions,” with Assistant Defense Secretary for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs Deb Rosenblum; Navy Vice Adm. Collin Green, deputy commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command; Army Reserve Lt. Gen. A.C. Roper, U.S. Northern Command deputy commander; U.S. Southern Command Deputy Director J10 Sean Hankard; and Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Chemical and Biological Defense Ian Watson. https://www.ndia.org/events/2022/7/26
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing for Milancy Harris to be deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security; Radha Plumb to be deputy undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; Brendan Owens to be assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations, and environment; and Laura Taylor-Kale to be assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
12:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E. — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Lessons Learned from the War in Ukraine,” with IRIS Independent Research President Rebecca Grant; retired Army Col. David Johnson; and Bryan Clark, Hudson Institute senior fellow https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/lessons-learned-the-war-ukraine
1:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual fireside chat with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr.; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow, director, CNAS Defense Program. https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat
7 p.m. 600 I Street N.W. — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion: “Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy,” with author and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger; and Andrea Mitchell, chief NBC News Washington correspondent https://www.politics-prose.com/event/book
FRIDAY | JULY 29
8:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel nearing: “Service Members’ Reproductive Health and Readiness,” with testimony from Sharon Arana, active-duty service member; Theresa Mozzillo, active-duty service member; Dr. Jackie Lamme, OB-GYN, Naval Medical Officer; Dr. Ghazaleh Moayedi, OB-GYN, Texas-based civilian; Gil Cisneros, undersecretary of defense personnel and readiness; Seileen Mullen, acting secretary of defense health affairs; and Caroline Krass, Pentagon general counsel https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference: “The Nuclear Posture in Review,” Former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller, lecturer at Stanford University https://www.csis.org/events/nuclear-posture-review
MONDAY | AUGUST 1
6:00 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W. — Hudson Institute book discussion: “The Arc of a Covenant,” a history of U.S.-Israel relations, with author Walter Russell Mead, distinguished fellow, Hudson Institute; and Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-arc-of-a-covenant-book-talk
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We can say that a turning point has occurred on the battlefield. We are switching from defensive to counteroffensive actions … We can say that the Kherson region will definitely be liberated by September, and all the occupiers’ plans will fail.”
Sergiy Khlan, an adviser to the administrative head of the Kherson region, as quoted in the Guardian.
