NORTH KOREA LAUNCH ‘NORMAL ACTIVITY’: U.S. officials are downplaying Sunday’s launch of what was reported to be two cruise missiles from North Korea’s west coast, as the Biden administration prepares to reveal its strategy for attempting to re-engage Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons and long-range missile program.
“While we take all of its military activity seriously and will continue to consult closely on this with partners and allies, we see this action in the category of normal activity, most normal military activity by the North,” said one of two senior administration officials on a conference call with reporters Tuesday evening. “North Korea has a familiar menu of provocations when it wants to send a message to a U.S. administration: ballistic missiles of various range, mobile and submarine launch platforms, nuclear and thermonuclear tests. Experts rightly recognized what took place last weekend as falling on the low end of that spectrum.”
HOW ‘LOW-END’ WAS IT? The South Korean news agency Yonhap quoted an unnamed officer from the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff as confirming the two projectiles detected early Sunday morning were “presumed to be cruise missiles fired from the North's western port county of Onchon.”
A second U.S. official on yesterday’s conference call would not identify the type of missiles fired, citing “issues on classification,” but described the launch as being from “a short-range system,” which is “not covered by U.N. Security Council resolutions.”
“Almost every kind of activity — missile, nuclear activity — is covered by U.N. Security Council resolutions,” he said. “And so, because this does not, it probably gives you an indication of where it falls on the spectrum of concern.”
Coastal anti-ship missiles are not covered by U.N. resolutions, and the missiles were also fired into the Yellow Sea in the direction of China, not from the east coast toward Japan, which would have been more provocative. “Sunday's firings might be seen as part of its ongoing wintertime military exercise,” a military official told Yonhap.
Asked as he was boarding Air Force One to return to Washington from Ohio about what he had learned about the missile test, President Biden said simply, “We have learned that there is nothing much has changed.”
REVIEW ALMOST DONE: Meanwhile, the senior officials told reporters that the Biden administration’s comprehensive review of past diplomacy and its future approach to dealing with North Korea is almost complete.
“We are on our forward foot, in terms of wanting to clearly signal that we are prepared for continuing engagement in Northeast Asia with key partners and indeed with North Korea,” said one official. “We are under no illusions about the difficulty this task presents to us. We have a long history of disappointment in diplomacy with North Korea. It’s defied expectations of Republican and Democratic administrations alike.”
The official said former Trump administration officials had been helpful in providing a complete picture of the two summits between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
“We had deep conversations with senior officials at the White House and the State Department about the diplomacy that took place both in Singapore and Vietnam and surrounding engagements,” the official said. “We learned quite a bit about, you know, what took place in some private sessions and the like.”
National security adviser Jake Sullivan is to meet next week with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts to "strategize" about the best way forward.
‘WAR GAMES’ TO RESUME: The U.S. officials indicated that one of Trump’s concessions to Kim, the cancellation of large-scale joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises, which Kim denounced as offensive “war games,” would end under Biden.
“We thought that some of the efforts that were taken previously to turn off necessary exercises and the like were actually antithetical to our position as the keeper and the maintenance of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” said one official, calling the defensive military drills necessary for deterrence. “The hope of diplomacy really rests on the reality of deterrence and our forward-deployed capabilities.”
US TOUTS RENEWED MILITARY DRILLS AFTER 'LOW-END' NORTH KOREAN TESTS
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HAPPENING TODAY: The House Armed Services Committee will delve into “Extremism in the Armed Forces,” with a panel of witnesses that includes Audrey Kurth Cronin, professor of international security and director of American University's Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology; Lecia Brooks, chief of staff for the Southern Poverty Law Center; and Michael Berry, general counsel at the First Liberty Institute. 12 p.m. 2118 Rayburn.
And at 9:30 a.m., the House Homeland Security Intelligence and Counterterrorism Subcommittee will hear from local officials on "State and Local Responses to Domestic Terrorism: The Attack on the U.S. Capitol and Beyond,” with testimony from Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel; Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford; and John Chisholm, district attorney for Milwaukee County, Wisconsin.
HAPPENING NEXT WEEK, LET THE BUDGET BATTLES BEGIN: The Biden administration will release some guidance next week about what it’s going to propose when it submits its budget request for fiscal 2022 to Congress later this year.
“Our priority is to provide Congress with early information about the president’s discretionary funding priorities, which is what they need to begin the appropriations process,” said Rob Friedlander, a spokesman for the White House Office of Management and Budget.
“The budget proposal will include funding levels by agencies and guidance on investments, but it will exclude tax proposals and mandatory spending programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security,” reported the Associated Press.
The Biden Pentagon is expected to propose essentially a flat defense budget that will prioritize a number of key programs, including nuclear modernization and countering China, along with funding for more shipbuilding, F-35 fighter jets, and drones.
The 2022 defense budget will be about matching resources to strategy. “Our theories of how we deter those adversaries, and the kinds of capabilities we buy — that's what ultimately needs to link to strategy,” said Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks in an internal interview with a DOD reporter yesterday. "We owe a budget, and there's a budget number attached to it,” she said without confirming this year’s top line will be close to last year’s.
AFGHANISTAN COUNTDOWN, DAY 38: As of today, there are 38 days left before U.S. and international troops are scheduled to withdraw fully from Afghanistan under the Feb. 29, 2020, agreement negotiated with the Taliban by the Trump administration. President Biden has yet to indicate whether he will abide by the agreement or declare the Taliban to be in violation of the terms and extend the deployment of 2,500 U.S. troops, along with more than 5,000 NATO and partner forces.
At yesterday’s meeting of NATO foreign ministers, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that the U.S. has not yet told allies whether the U.S. will pull its troops out in the face of faltering peace talks and increased Taliban attacks.
“After decades of fighting, violence, we are now closer to an agreement and have been ever before. At the same time, we are all realistic, and we know that it's a hard way forward to make real progress. And we have no guarantees that the peace talks will succeed,” Stoltenberg said. “The reason why we have not made any final decision is that, of course, we would like to see, what we will decide, will depend on how the peace process evolves,” he said.
Today, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets in Brussels with Mevlut Cavusoglu, the foreign minister of Turkey, which has agreed to host the next round of peace talks.
HOUSING MIGRANT CHILDREN: The Pentagon confirmed yesterday that it has been asked by the Department of Health and Human Services to provide space for temporary housing of unaccompanied migrant children who have been flooding across the southwest border.
“Specifically, HHS has requested use of a vacant dormitory at Joint Base San Antonio – Lackland, Texas, and an area of land on Fort Bliss, Texas,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. “If provided, this support would be on a fully-reimbursable basis, and DOD would only provide this kind of support where it will not negatively affect military training, operations, readiness, or other military requirements, including National Guard and Reserve readiness.”
Kirby said the Pentagon only received the request for assistance yesterday morning and was in the process of reviewing it. “You don't rubber-stamp anything here at the Department of Defense,” he said. “There'll be an evaluation and analysis done on the request just like every other request for assistance.”
Previously HHS conducted a site survey at Fort Lee, Virginia, to determine its suitability as a potential temporary housing facility.
HHS SEEKS TO HOUSE MIGRANT CHILDREN AT THREE US MILITARY BASES
VP HARRIS AND SALUTE GATE: The Pentagon was dragged into another culture war skirmish yesterday, when critics of Vice President Kamala Harris took to Twitter to chastise her for walking past two uniformed military members as she boarded Air Force Two Monday night, without returning their salute.
“DISGRACEFUL,” tweeted Bernard Kerik, the former New York City police commissioner pardoned by former President Donald Trump for tax fraud and other felonies. “@VP Kamala Harris refuses to salute the honor guard at the steps of the aircraft. It is a clear demonstration of her dislike for those in uniform, both law-enforcement and military.”
The online outrage sent Pentagon spokesman John Kirby on a research project to find out if there was any military protocol for whether the vice president, who is a civilian, not in the chain of command, is expected to salute the troops who are saluting her.
“There is no overarching instruction or regulation that requires the president or vice president to return hand salutes from members of the armed forces,” Kirby reported back at the end of the day, noting that “Vice President Harris has made very clear her respect and admiration for the men and women of the military, as well as their families.”
So, it turns out while there is a regulation [Army Regulation 600-25, in section 2-1f] that states, “The President of the United States, as the commander in chief, will be saluted by Army personnel in uniform.” There is no regulation that the vice president be saluted or that the president or vice president return the salute.
But as Kirby points out, “From their first days in the military, new recruits are taught to salute when they meet more senior leaders — a common phrase among drill instructors is, ‘When in doubt, throw it out.’ Our troops demonstrate their respect for the nation’s senior leaders in many ways; rending a hand salute is one of them.”
IT ALL STARTED WITH RONALD REAGAN: A little history of the presidential salute courtesy of James Clark over at Task & Purpose, who unearthed these 1986 remarks from President Ronald Reagan from the archives of his presidential library.
“I know all the rules about not saluting in civilian clothes and so forth, and when you should or shouldn’t. But then when I got this job, and I would be approaching Air Force One or Marine One, and those Marines would come to a salute and I — knowing that I am in civilian clothes — I would nod and say hello and think they could drop their hand, and they wouldn’t. They just stood there. So, one night over at the commandant’s quarters, Marine commandant’s quarters in Washington, and I was getting a couple of highballs, and I didn’t know what to do with them. So, I said to the commandant — I said, ‘Look, I know all the rules about saluting in civilian clothes and all, but if I am the commander in chief, there ought to be a regulation that would permit me to return a salute.’ And I heard some words of wisdom. He said, ‘I think if you did, no one would say anything.’ So, if you see me on television and I’m saluting, you know that I’ve got authority for it now, and I do it happily.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: The Pentagon has awarded two contracts valued at $1.6 billion to Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin in support of the Next Generation Interceptor program.
The NGI is an advanced interceptor designed to protect the nation against intercontinental ballistic missile attack as part of the ground-based midcourse missile defense system.
The award is structured to carry two designs into the “technology development and risk reduction phase” of the acquisition program, under the department’s “fly before you buy” policy aimed at making sure the missile prototypes have been rigorously flight-tested prior to making any procurement decisions.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US touts renewed military drills after 'low-end' North Korean tests
Washington Examiner: HHS seeks to house migrant children at three US military bases
Washington Examiner: ‘We have NATO’: 21st-century coalitions emerge as Russia and China align against US allies
Washington Examiner: Utah one of last states to rid taxes on military retiree benefits
Washington Examiner: Marines fire commander after investigation into mass casualty training incident
USNI News: Military Takeover of Taiwan Is Top Concern for INDOPACOM Nominee Aquilino
Breaking Defense: Pentagon Weighs Guam Missile Defense Money For 2022 Budget
Military.com: The Navy Doesn't Need Another Carrier Right Now, Admiral Nominated to Lead Pacific Ops Says
National Defense Magazine: U.S., China Engaged In 'Superpower Marathon'
AP: UN Envoy: Attacks Must End For Afghan Peace Talks To Succeed
Washington Post: Facing sweltering soldiers and flooded ports, NATO to focus on climate change
AP: NATO prepares ‘virus-free’ zone for summit; Biden invited
Air Force Magazine: How USAF is Trying to Reduce Training Mishap Rates
19fortyfive.com: Stealth F-22 Raptors And F-35s Are Training Together For A China Fight
19fortyfive.com: China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter Has A Serious Problem
Defense One: China Is ‘Danger Close’ To U.S. In AI Race, DOD AI Chief Says
USNI News: MoD Official: U.K. ‘Would Be Mad To Ignore’ Working With Allied F-35B Capable Carriers
AP: Man accused of holding National Guard members at gunpoint
19fortyfive.com: The U.S. Military Wants Bullets That Can’t Miss
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Forbes: Lockheed Martin and Aerojet: A Merger That Will Make The U.S. Military Stronger
Calendar
9:30 a.m. — House Homeland Security Intelligence and Counterterrorism Subcommittee hearing on "State and Local Responses to Domestic Terrorism: The Attack on the U.S. Capitol and Beyond.” with Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel; Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford; and John Chisholm, district attorney for Milwaukee County, Wis. https://homeland.house.gov/activities
10 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Blinken's Asia Trip: What's Next With North Korea?" with Jenny Town, senior fellow and director of 38 North; Joel Wit, fellow at 38 North; Robert Carlin, nonresident fellow at 38 North; and Suzanne DiMaggio, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://www.stimson.org/event/blinkens-asia-trip
10 a.m. — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations webinar on new report: “Changing Military Dynamics of the Middle East North Africa Region,” with author Anthony Cordesman, chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; John Duke Anthony, founding president and CEO of NCUSAR; and David Des Roches, senior international affairs fellow at NCUSAR. https://ncusar.org/
10 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association "Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Conference and Exhibition," with Tom Cartledge, branch chief of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Nuclear Detection Division. https://www.ndia.org/events
10 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual National Security and Artificial Intelligence Conference and Exhibition, with Acting Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Director Peter Highnam. https://www.ndia.org/events
11 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual discussion: “Lessons from New START and the Road Ahead for Nuclear Arms Control.” with Rose Gottemoeller, former undersecretary of state, arms control and international security; and CSPC Board Chairman Amb. Thomas Pickering, former undersecretary of state for political affairs and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Russia, India, Israel and Jordan. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
11 a.m. — United States Institute of Peace webinar: “Peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula: U.S. and European Perspectives,” with Tongfi Kim, senior researcher at the Brussels School of Governance's Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy; Eun-Jeung Lee, director of the Freie University of Berlin's Institute of Korean Studies; Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Korea chair at the Brussels School of Governance's Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy; Joseph Yun, senior adviser at USIP; and Frank Aum, senior expert on North Korea at USIP https://www.usip.org/events/peacebuilding-korean-peninsula
12 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing on "Extremism in the Armed Forces,” with Audrey Kurth Cronin, professor of international security and director of American University's Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology; Lecia Brooks, chief of staff for the Southern Poverty Law Center; and Michael Berry, general counsel at the First Liberty Institute. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “North Korean Threat Perception and the US-South Korea Alliance: Political-Military Dimensions,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former U.S. Korea commander; retired South Korean Lt. Gen. In Bum Chun; Andrei Lankov, director, NK News, professor, Kookmin University; Evans J.R. Revere, former deputy chief of mission and charge d'affaires, U.S. Embassy, Seoul. https://www.hudson.org/events
2:30 p.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Personnel hearing: “Sexual Assault in the Military,” with a panel of survivors of sexual assault in the military and survivor advocates, and two subseqeuent panels with Brenda Farrell, director, Defense Capabilities and Management, Government Accountability Office; and Eugene Fidell, senior research scholar, Yale Law School adjunct professor of law, New York University Law School; and retired Air Force Col. Don. Christensen, president, Protect Our Defenders. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
4:30 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual “Wednesday Wisdom series,” discussion, with Lora Shiao, COO of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. https://www.insaonline.org/event/wednesday-wisdom
6 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “The Future of the U.S.-Japan Alliance Under Biden and Suga,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Korea and Japan Marc Knapper; and Lisa Curtis, director of the Center for a New American Security's Indo-Pacific Security Program. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
THURSDAY | MARCH 25
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the U.S. Special Operations Command and U.S. Cyber Command, with Christopher Maier, acting assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command, director, National Security Agency, chief, Central Security Service. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “How the Army is Adapting to Great Power Competition,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville. https://www.brookings.edu/events
10 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual National Security and Artificial Intelligence Conference and Exhibition, with Eric Schmidt, chairman of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. https://www.ndia.org/events
11 a.m. — National Security Space Association “SpaceTime” event, with Air Force with Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command. https://www.nssaspace.org/events
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “North Korean Threat Perception and the U.S.-South Korea Alliance: Implications for Policy,” with Chun Yung-woo, chairman of the Korean Peninsula Future Forum; Joseph Yun, senior adviser at the U.S. Institute of Peace Asia Program; Duyeon Kim, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security; and Alex Wong, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events/1933-virtual-event
1 p.m. — Defense One webinar: “Artificial Intelligence and Ethics, Mitigating Unwanted Bias," with Kimberly Bower, senior analytic data scientist for policy and governance at the Defense Intelligence Agency's Directorate for Analysis; Alka Patel, chief of responsible AI at the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Kristi Scott, privacy and civil liberties officer at the Central Intelligence Agency; Barry Zulauf, chief of the solutions group in the Office of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; and Patrick Tucker, technology editor at Defense One. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/AI-and-Ethics
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group webinar on "Leveraging DevSecOps (development, security and operations) at the Department of Defense,” with Jennifer Basiliko, senior technical adviser in the Defense Intelligence Agency's Cyber and Security Division; Dan Chenok, executive director of the IBM Center for the Business of Government; Chris Yates, senior solutions architect at Red Hat; and Daniela Fayer, publisher of Defense One. https://www.govexec.com/feature
1 p.m. — Middle East Institute “Defense Leadership series” webinar, with Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.mei.edu/events
FRIDAY | MARCH 26
11 a.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations hearing: “SOF Culture and Climate: The Future of the Force,” with Linda Robinson, director, Center for Middle East Public Policy, RAND Corporation; retired Army Lt. Gen. Mike Nagata, senior vice president and strategic adviser, CACI International Inc.; retired Marine Lt. Col. Kate Germano; Mark Mitchell, former acting assistant secretary of defense special operations and low intensity conflict. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
11 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion: “The Digital Transformation of Weapons — Leveraging Digital Engineering to Propel AFRL (Air Force Research Laboratory) to the Future Fight,” with Air Force Col. Garry Haase, commander and director of the AFRL Munitions Directorate. https://afceanova.swoogo.com/March2021Luncheon
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Rethinking the Role of Remotely Crewed Systems in the Future Force,” with Ulrike Franke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Jacquelyn Schneider, fellow at the Hoover Institution; Scott Wierzbanowski, program manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's Tactical Technology Office; and Rachel Cohen, senior reporter at the Air Force Times. https://www.csis.org/events
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Confronting a New Era of Global Threats,” with Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas; and Tim Morrison, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events/1940-virtual-event
3 p.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Installation Resiliency: Lessons Learned from Winter Storm Uri and Beyond,” with Lt. Gen. Douglas Gabram, commanding general, Army Installation Management Command; Vice Adm. Yancy Lindsey, commander, Navy Installations Command; Maj. Gen. Edward Banta, commander, Marine Corps Installations Command; and Brig. Gen. John Allen, commander, Air Force Materiel Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
WEDNESDAY I MARCH 31
12:30 p.m. — Hampton Roads World Affairs Council Virtual Symposium virtual panel discussion: “Stronger Together: Perspectives on Strengthening the Alliance,” with the current and three former commanders of Allied Command Transformation, including French Air Force Gen. Andre Lanata; Retired French Air Force Gen. Denis Mercier, retired Marine Gen. Jim Mattis, and retired Adm. Ed Giambastiani, ACT’s first commander. https://zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If the Big 12 can have 10 teams, and the Big Ten and A-10 can have 14 teams each, there's no reason the Quad can't have more than four nations.”
Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, at yesterday’s Senate confirmation hearing for Adm. John Aquilino, suggesting South Korea be added to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue alliance, which includes the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India.
