With logistics the apparent key to victory, Ukrainian and Russian forces race to resupply faster

“He’s actually approaching on three lines of major access in Ukraine,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby on Fox. “He’s kind of divided his forces if you will. He’s coming up from the south, he’s coming in from the northeast, and, of course, down toward the north toward Kyiv.”

But the tenacious resistance of the Ukrainian defenders remains dependent on the continued flow of Javelin tank-busting missiles and Stinger shoulder-fired air defenses, while the Russian troops are seeing their supply lines of food, fuel, and ammunition cut by daring attacks from Ukrainian troops and aircraft.

“They’re putting up an incredible fight. They’re making it extremely difficult for the Russians to resupply their forces,” said retired Army Brig. Gen. Steve Anderson, a former senior logistics officer in Iraq.

“This is turning into a logistics war, in some respects, in that it’s a race between our ability and NATO’s ability to push forward supplies, such as the 17,000 missiles that have been recently approved, to get those into the hands of the Ukrainian warfighters before the Russians can regroup and get their logistics, lines of communication, and their capabilities up to snuff,” Anderson said on CNN.

‘FIERY HELLO’: UKRAINE CREDITS TIP FOR SUCCESSFUL ATTACK ON RUSSIAN CONVOY

POLISH MiGs SHOT DOWN — BY DOD! On paper, the plan to provide Ukraine with Polish Soviet-era MiG-29s that Ukrainian pilots already know how to fly sounded good. The U.S. was happy to promise replacement aircraft if Poland sent the MiGs to Ukraine. But Poland, seeking some plausible deniability with Moscow, caught the Pentagon off guard by offering the jets to the U.S. and letting the U.S. give them to Ukraine.

“The prospect of fighter jets ‘at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America’ departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance,” John Kirby said in a tersely worded statement.

“We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one,” Kirby said. “It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it.”

PENTAGON SHOOTS DOWN POLISH PLAN TO PROVIDE MIGS TO UKRAINE

‘WHAT’S GOING ON?’ When word came that Poland was ready to transfer about two-dozen MiG-29s to Poland via the U.S., Nebraska Republican Sen. Ben Sasse was among the first to applaud.

“The clock is ticking and Russia is attacking Ukraine’s airfields. President Biden needs to get this MiG transfer done, and he needs to get it done today. Ukraine doesn’t have time for paperwork. Load these MiGs up and get them to Ukrainian pilots who can still make a difference.”

But a few hours later, after learning the Pentagon nixed the deal, Sasse was slack-jawed.

“President Biden should explain exactly why he vetoed fighter jets for Ukraine. Two days ago, the Secretary of State gave a green light to MiG transfers but now the Department of Defense is raising red flags — what’s going on?” Sasse said in a press release. “Let’s be very clear: Ukrainians are getting Javelins and Stingers from NATO territory — so why exactly does President Biden think that Ukrainian MiGs, flown by Ukrainian pilots, would be shot down over NATO territory while they’re on their way to defend Ukrainian airspace?”

HARRIS SET TO MEET POLISH LEADERS AFTER U.S. REJECTS SURPRISE FIGHTER JET PLAN

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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NOTE TO READERS: On a personal note, I am having follow-up surgery on my left hand this morning as the result of the serious burns I sustained last October. It’s relatively simple outpatient surgery, but it may mean my left hand will be bandaged for a day or two, and that could make typing a challenge. I share this just to alert my loyal readers that I’m likely to be unable to publish this newsletter tomorrow and possibly Friday as well.

One other editorial note. I write this newsletter between 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. each day in order to have the latest overnight and overseas events. Today’s edition was written last night, so with the fast moving developments in Ukraine, it’s possible some items may have been overtaken by events.

HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spent yesterday consulting by phone with his counterparts from the U.K., France, and Slovenia ahead of today’s virtual meeting of NATO defense ministers.

Later this afternoon, Austin welcomes Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen to the Pentagon, as Finland seeks closer ties with NATO and possible future membership.

ALSO TODAY: Army Gen. Tod Wolters, commander of the U.S European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, meets behind closed doors at 10 a.m. with members of the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee. Ostensibly, Wolters is testifying about the budget needs of the U.S. European Command, but the classified session is expected to focus largely on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, the full House Foreign Affairs Committee will be getting a classified briefing on Russia and Ukraine.

THE VIEW FROM THE IC: America’s top intelligence officials testified before a House Committee about the range of threats from China, North Korea, and Iran, but committee members were largely focused on the war in Ukraine.

“Russia’s failure to rapidly cease Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces has deprived Moscow of the quick military victory it probably had originally expected would prevent the United States and NATO from being able to provide meaningful military aid to Ukraine,” said Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, in her testimony. “What is unclear at this stage is whether Russia will continue to pursue a maximalist plan to capture all or most of Ukraine.”

“If they pursue the maximalist plan, we judge it will be especially challenging for the Russians to hold and control Ukrainian territory and install a sustainable pro-Russian regime in Kyiv in the face of what we assess is likely to be a persistent and significant insurgency,” Haines said, noting the significant setbacks suffered by the Russian forces so far.

“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks, and instead, may escalate, essentially doubling down to achieve Ukrainian disarmament and neutrality,” Haines said. “Putin feels aggrieved … and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose.”

CIA CHIEF: IN FOR ‘AN UGLY NEXT FEW WEEKS’: I think Putin’s assumptions … have turned out to be profoundly flawed,” testified CIA Director William Burns. “I fail to see, and our analysts fail to see, how he could sustain a puppet regime or a pro-Russian leadership that he tries to install in the face of what is massive opposition from the Ukrainian people.”

“And where that leads, I think, is for an ugly next few weeks in which he doubles down,” said Burns, “with scant regard for civilian casualties, in which urban fighting can get even uglier.”

PUTIN’S RISING BODY COUNT: Asked if he could say how many Russian troops had been killed in the first two weeks of the war, DIA Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier replied, “With low confidence somewhere between 2,000 and 4,000. That number comes from some intelligence sources but also open source and how we pull that together.”

Ukraine claims to have killed far more, in excess of 12,000 Russian soldiers, as well as destroying more than 300 tanks, 80 helicopters, 48 planes, 120 artillery systems, and sunk 3 ships or boats, which the Pentagon says it can’t and won’t confirm.

Berrier did not say whether his low confidence in the 2,000 to 4,000 range was because it was too low or too high.

WORRIED MOTHERS, WIVES, FAMILIES: The Russian Defense Ministry has barely mentioned casualties, making only one announcement on March 2, when it said 498 troops had died in action.

Meanwhile, CNN is reporting from Kyiv that thousands of Russian parents, wives, and siblings have been calling a hotline set up by the Ukrainian government desperate for information about loved ones they haven’t heard from in days.

Some Russian relatives are worried they will never find out the truth, given that Russian forces have reported mobile crematoriums to dispose of the bodies of fallen soldiers.

“That could have a strategic major effect. I wrote a book about,” said retired Army Maj. John Spencer, chairman of urban warfare studies with the Madison Policy Forum. “And the fact that it’s Russian mothers, that’s huge. Russia has a lot of experience with mothers bringing conflicts to a halt.”

“This could have a huge effect on Russia’s ability to keep doing this, on the troops’ ability to keep moving forward,” Spencer said on CNN. “Soldiers don’t fight for dictators. Soldiers fight for a cause, they fight for their families, and they fight for each other. This is huge.”

CHANNELING CHURCHILL: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky drew a thunderous standing ovation when he addressed the British House of Commons yesterday, delivering a speech that echoed the inspiring oratory of wartime British Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

“We will not give up, and we will not lose. We will fight till the end at sea, in the air. We will continue fighting for our land, whatever the cost. We will fight in the forests, in the fields, on the shores, in the streets,” Zelensky said in a virtual appearance. “And we are looking for your help, for the help of the civilized countries.”

36 NATIONS SAY ‘NYET’ TO RUSSIAN AND BELARUSIAN ATHLETES: The State Department released a statement yesterday signed by 36 countries committed to banning Russian and Belarusian athletes and teams from competing internationally.

The “collective of like-minded nations” took the following positions:

• Russia and Belarus should not be permitted to host, bid for, or be awarded any international sporting events.
• Individual athletes selected by Russia and Belarus, administrators and teams representing the Russian or Belarusian state, should be banned from competing in other countries, including those representing bodies, cities, or brands that are effectively representing Russia or Belarus, such as major football clubs.
• Wherever possible, appropriate actions should be taken to limit sponsorship and other financial support from entities with links to the Russian or Belarusian states.

“Russia’s unprovoked and unjustifiable war of choice against Ukraine, enabled by the Belarusian government, is abhorrent and a flagrant breach of its international obligations. Respect for human rights and peaceful relations between nations form the foundation of international sport,” the statement said.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden announces Russian oil ban, blames Putin for surging prices

Washington Examiner: US estimates with ‘low confidence’ Russia has lost 2,000-4,000 troops in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Pentagon shoots down Polish plan to provide MiGs to Ukraine

Washington Examiner: More than two dozen US foreign policy experts call for ‘limited’ no-fly zone

Washington Examiner: ‘Bombing our supply lines won’t change anything,’ Ukrainian volunteer proclaims

Washington Examiner: ‘Fiery hello’: Ukraine credits tip for successful attack on Russian convoy

Washington Examiner: Russia’s flawed Ukraine invasion shows military’s ‘weaknesses,’ Panetta says

Washington Examiner: Six state governments hacked by China, says cybersecurity firm

Washington Examiner: US looks to keep Ukrainian ‘biological research facilities’ from Russian control

Washington Examiner: Capturing Kyiv remains Russia’s ‘main objective’ despite struggles: Pentagon

Washington Examiner: Menendez warns Biden not to touch Venezuela sanctions to lower gas prices

Washington Examiner: Lawmakers near deal on catch-all spending bill to avoid government shutdown

Washington Post: ‘Every inch of NATO’: Blinken seeks to deter any Russia thought of pushing beyond Ukraine

Air Force Magazine: Nuclear Modernization is the ’Absolute Minimum,’ STRATCOM Commander Says

Air Force Magazine: Watch, Read: In Keynote, Kendall Warns ‘Putin Made a Very Serious Miscalculation’

Washington Post: Ukraine says Russia thwarting wider civilian evacuations as Sumy corridor opens, thousands flee

AP: Suffering goes on in encircled Mariupol as evacuation fails

Washington Post: Guy Reffitt guilty on all counts in first Capitol riot trial

19fortyfive.com: How Ukraine Could Do the Impossible: Win a War Against Russia

19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Nightmare Comes True: Germany’s Military Is Back

19fortyfive.com: Biden Just Banned Russian Oil. But Who Suffers: Putin or Americans?

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: With His only Option being Escalation, this is How Putin’s War Must End

The Cipher Brief: Analysis: The Risks Facing Putin and his Inner Circle

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: The Cost of Not Bringing the Pentagon into the Post-Cold War Era

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: The People in the Best Position to Stop Putin are His Own

Real Clear Defense: Opinion: How To Defend America Against Russian Nuclear Attack

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 9

9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific Region,” with testimony from Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs; Adm. John Aquilino, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Army Gen. Paul LaCamera, commander, U.N. Command, Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence virtual event with Audrey Schaffer, director for space policy, National Security Council; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, explorer chair, Mitchell Institute’s Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence https://go.afa.org

10:30 a.m. — Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion: “Russia’s Economy in Free Fall,” with John Bellinger, adjunct senior fellow for international and national security law at CFR and partner at Arnold & Porter LLP; Nina Khrushcheva, professor of international affairs at the New School; and Sebastian Mallaby, senior fellow for international economics at CFR https://www.cfr.org/event/russias-economy-freefall

12:30 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center and Washington Foreign Law Society virtual discussion: “Acts of War? Accountability for Cyberattacks in Ukraine,” with Liis Vihul, CEO of Cyber Law International; Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade, adjunct lecturer at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies; and Michael Teodori, president of the Washington Foreign Law Society https://www.stimson.org/event/acts-of-war-accountability

1 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Navigating the New Strategic Realities of Space,” with Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander of U.S. Space Command https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/navigating-the-new-strategic-realities-of-space

1:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen to the Pentagon.

2 p.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “Crisis in Ukraine,” with former European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

THURSDAY | MARCH 10

9 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on Ukraine, with German Ambassador to the United States Emily Haber https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

9:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The South Korean presidential election,” Jiyoon Kim, senior research fellow at the Institute of Democracy and Education; Insun Kang, deputy managing editor for digital content and diplomacy at Chosun Ilbo; Michelle Ye Hee Lee, Tokyo bureau chief at the Washington Post; Gordon Lubold, White House and national security reporter at the Wall Street Journal; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-43

10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate (Select) Intelligence Committee hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from CIA Director William Burns; Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; National Security Agency Director Gen. Paul Nakasone; FBI Director Christopher Wray; and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier http://intelligence.senate.gov

10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum, with Barry Pavel, director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; Matthew Kroenig, deputy director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies https://go.afa.org

11 a.m. — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg delivers keynote address at the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense. Livestream at https://www.nato.int

12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion on U.S. national security strategy, as part of the Future of Conservative Foreign Policy series, with former National Security Council Deputy Advisor for Strategy Nadia Schadlow, senior fellow, Hudson Institute https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12:30 a.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “Ukraine Today,” with Sergiy Kudelia, associate professor of political science, Baylor University https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

5:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “U.S.-North Korea Policy,” with Jung Pak, deputy special representative for North Korea and deputy assistant secretary of State for multilateral affairs and global China issues; Jacob Stokes, fellow at the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program; Frank Aum, senior expert on Northeast Asia at the United States Institute of Peace; Duyeon Kim, adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program; John Park, director of Harvard University’s Korea Project; Jacob Stokes, fellow at the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program; and Joshua Fitt, associate fellow at the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program https://cnas.zoom.us/webinar/register

7 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “South Korea’s National Security Policy After the 2022 Election,” with Karl Friedhoff, fellow for Asia studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs; Lami Kim, assistant professor in the U.S. Army War College Department of National Security and Strategy; Toby Dalton, co-director of the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; Chung Min Lee, senior fellow in the CEIP Asia Program; and Evan Feigenbaum, vice president of studies at CEIP https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/10/south-korea

FRIDAY | MARCH 11

7 p.m. — Institute for Corean-American Studies virtual winter symposium on “The Ukraine Crisis, Indo-Pacific, Northeast Asia and U.S. National Security,” Gary Samore, ICAS fellow and politics professor at Brandeis University https://www.eventbrite.com/e/icas-winter-symposium

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, addressing the British House of Commons virtually, before receiving a standing ovation.