President Donald Trump ordered the Department of War to resume testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China on Thursday, a practice halted by the U.S. in 1992.
The announcement gave rise to fears of the revived possibility of nuclear doom from some, and outright confusion from others. Defenders praised the move as a tit-for-tat response to saber-rattling from Russia and China, while critics decried it as a reckless move with wide-reaching consequences.
Here’s everything to know about Trump’s decision to resume nuclear tests:
What are nuclear tests, and why are they carried out?
Before any weapon is used in combat, it must first be tested in a controlled or semi-controlled environment. When U.S. scientists harnessed the power of the atom to develop an unprecedented weapon to end World War II, this new type of weapon was no exception. Before Little Boy was dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, the U.S. detonated the world’s first nuclear explosion on July 16, 1945, at the Trinity test site in New Mexico. The test collected data on the physics, yield, and effects of the explosion.
After the successful use of two nuclear weapons against Japan, the U.S. sought to continue its development of nuclear weapons, especially after the Soviet Union acquired its own. Nuclear tests were needed to gather data on the new weapons, both to ensure their readiness for use and to create new and better weapons. Nuclear tests helped produce the hydrogen bomb within a decade of the first test, a weapon of far greater power than the first atomic bombs.
While primarily intended to prepare and maintain the weapons, nuclear tests are doubly intended as the ultimate form of saber-rattling. The U.S. and the Soviet Union constantly sought to one-up each other with their tests, culminating in the Soviets detonating the 50 megaton Tsar Bomba on Oct. 30, 1961, the largest man-made explosion by a massive margin.
Aside from weapons testing, the U.S. and the Soviet Union both had programs that tested peaceful uses of nuclear explosions. The Soviet Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy program detonated 122-124 nuclear bombs, while the U.S. Project Plowshare detonated 27. The explosions were mostly used for massive engineering, natural gas, and scientific projects.
Since the inauguration of the nuclear age in 1945, the U.S. has carried out the most nuclear tests by far, almost as many as every other country combined. According to the Arms Control Association, the U.S. carried out 1,030 nuclear tests, the Soviet Union 715, France 210, the United Kingdom 45, China 45, India three, Pakistan two, and North Korea six.
The Soviet Union halted nuclear tests in 1989, while the U.S. carried out its last test in 1992. India and Pakistan tested five throughout the 1990s, while the most recent have all been from North Korea between 2006 and 2017.
Why did the U.S. stop nuclear tests?
The U.S. stopped nuclear tests largely for safety reasons. Even by the 1960s, scientists began to realize the dangerous effects that repeated nuclear tests were having on the atmosphere, spreading immense amounts of radioactive fallout across the globe. In response to growing issues regarding human and environmental health, nearly all nuclear tests were relegated underground with the Aug. 5, 1963, Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
Just as important, however, were political and psychological factors. The spree of nuclear tests by the U.S. was always intended to intimidate the Soviet Union, then later China, and enforce the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction — ensuring its rivals that any existential threat to the U.S. would be countered with global devastation.
The warming of relations with the Soviet Union greatly decreased the perceived need to hone the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal. Treaties throughout the 1970s and 1980s further limited the scope of nuclear testing, establishing a ceiling for the size of even underground nuclear tests.
After Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev announced a moratorium on all nuclear testing in 1991, President George H.W. Bush signed the Hatfield Amendment into law on Oct. 2, 1992, establishing a U.S. nuclear test moratorium. He also pledged not to produce any new nuclear weapons with new military capabilities.
The moratorium was extended multiple times until the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty was signed into law by President Bill Clinton in 1996. The treaty was adopted by the United Nations on Sept. 10, 1996, nearly ending all nuclear tests globally.
Some leading Republicans have voiced opposition to the CNTBT over the years, but largely for sovereignty reasons rather than a wish to return to nuclear testing. President George W. Bush and 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain expressed opposition to the treaty, but supported the continuation of a moratorium on nuclear testing.
What are the harmful effects of nuclear tests?
The Trinity test in July 1945 stunned the world with a new weapon, one whose full properties were largely unknown by scientists and military figures alike. Some of the earliest experiments showcased this unfamiliarity, such as one of the 1946 Operation Crossroads tests which aimed to measure the effectiveness of a nuclear tsunami on a naval armada by detonating a nuclear weapon underwater, underneath a test fleet.
Little time passed before the true extent of atmospheric contamination through nuclear tests became widely known. Atmospheric nuclear tests, above-ground tests, release a tremendous amount of radioactive particles into the atmosphere, which then spread around the world. Radioactive contamination from these tests affects both humans, plants, and wildlife, often with deadly consequences. Fallout from nuclear testing has been linked to increased cancer rates, often far from the testing site.
American Scientist noted that by the early 1960s, “there was no place on Earth where the signature of atmospheric nuclear testing could not be found in soil, water, and even polar ice.”
The radioactive contamination from nuclear testing is so extensive that scientists rely on steel salvaged from underwater World War II shipwrecks, “low-background steel,” for use in some medical, radiological, and other advanced scientific equipment.
Much of the contamination from U.S. weapons comes from the 67 nuclear weapons tested in the Marshall Islands between 1946 and 1958. Though accounting for just 14% of all U.S. nuclear tests, 80% of the explosive yield from tests by the U.S. comes from these tests.
Among the most controversial of these was the March 1, 1954 Castle Bravo test, the most powerful weapon ever detonated by the U.S. The explosion was significantly larger than anticipated, spreading more radioactive fallout than predicted. This led to some of the first direct victims of nuclear testing, the crew of the Japanese fishing boat Daigo Fukuryū Maru, which was coated by radioactive ash. The crew suffered from acute radiation syndrome in the aftermath, with the radioman dying months later.
A study published by the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research this year noted that the total yield of nuclear bombs detonated in the Marshall Islands amounted to dropping one Hiroshima-sized bomb every day for 20 years. The study estimated that on a proportional basis, the Marshall Islands tests alone could be credited with 100,000 excess cancer deaths worldwide.
The Marshall Islands testing rendered many islands uninhabitable, including those with populations of Marshallese. The lingering negative health effects faced by the Marshallese Islanders remain a point of controversy, with victims mounting legal challenges against the U.S. government.
Though hundreds of atmospheric nuclear tests were carried out, the harm was discovered relatively quickly, and most nuclear tests have been carried out underground. Underground tests involve placing the weapon in an enclosed space hundreds to thousands of feet underground, which greatly limits the amount of radiation released into the atmosphere.
Underground nuclear tests became the norm after the signing of the PNTBT in 1963, until those also largely halted with the creation of the CNTBT.
Why is the U.S. resuming nuclear testing?
Trump portrayed his decision to return to nuclear testing as simply a tit-for-tat move in response to Russia and China.
“The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, adding that it will begin “immediately.”
His announcement came days after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the successful testing of the new Poseidon, an “Intercontinental Nuclear-Powered Nuclear-Armed Autonomous Torpedo,” the largest torpedo ever created, according to naval expert H. I. Sutton. The nuclear-armed torpedo is twice as large as submarine-launched ballistic missiles and 30 times larger than a standard torpedo and can create a tsunami.
The Poseidon is particularly deadly due to its essentially unlimited range and untraceable nature, making it nearly impossible to intercept, unlike some nuclear weapons launched via ballistic missile.
Though the testing of the torpedo didn’t involve any actual nuclear detonation, Trump appears to have viewed the public announcement as saber-rattling from the Kremlin, looking to respond in kind.
The first Trump administration had flirted with the possibility of resuming nuclear testing after accusing China and Russia of testing nuclear weapons covertly.
David Silbey, a Cornell University professor specializing in military history, defense policy, and battlefield analysis, noted that the true impact of a return to U.S. nuclear testing revolves around the location of the tests.
TRUMP ORDERS PENTAGON TO BEGIN NUCLEAR WEAPONS TESTS
“If they are underground tests in Nevada, where such tests were previously, then the dangers are relatively minimal. The Nevada test site is a well-known space; the ground absorbs the blast, and it won’t do much more damage than the thousands of tests that happened there during the Cold War. But if Trump decides he wants an above-ground test for drama purposes, then we start getting into radioactive fallout spreading somewhat unpredictably,” he said.
“If they want to avoid doing an air burst in the United States, then where? Bikini Atoll is now uninhabitable because of American nuclear tests and I doubt very many countries would be excited to have US nuclear weapons going off on their territory,” Silbey added.
