President Donald Trump will only come out in his campaign to pressure Nicolas Maduro if the Venezuelan leader gets removed from power, Elliott Abrams, who served as the special representative for Venezuela during the first Trump administration, said on Thursday.
The Department of War currently has a larger buildup of military forces in the Caribbean than at any point in decades, and is carrying out lethal attacks on suspected drug smuggling boats off Venezuela’s coast, while the administration has doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million.
“The U.S. has been saying this is about narcotics. This is about narcotics. That’s the official position. So we could announce in February, well narcotic shipments are down, so we won. But it’s false,” Abrams said during an event with the Atlantic Council. “If Nicolas Maduro is still there at the end of this, then he won. All he has to do is survive. And I hope the president recognizes it’s too late to back away. Either Trump is going to win or Maduro is going to win. That contest is now in place.”
Since early September, the U.S. has carried out about 20 lethal strikes on suspected drug smugglers allegedly heading for the U.S., killing about 75 people.
Abrams said Maduro likely believes he can outlast the pressure campaign, even though the military strikes are now a part of the overall strategy, which were not implemented during Trump’s first term.
“We’ve had a big challenge to the regime but in the end, he survived. In that sense, he won. He must be thinking well, maybe this will go away if we get to January, February. The armada can’t stay there forever. You cannot keep the USS Gerald Ford in the Caribbean until July, I think,” he added. “Something’s got to happen or, and this is my great fear, or we walk away. And it’s not inconceivable.”
Trump has not approved military strikes on Venezuelan soil, but has given the CIA the green light to carry out covert operations inside the country. It’s unusual for the president to publicly share where he or she has authorized the CIA to operate. Elliott deemed the admission a part of psychological operation or psy-op.
The U.S. also challenged Maduro during Trump’s first administration but was unsuccessful.
“We found out, obviously, last time that the economic sanctions, plus the diplomatic campaign, we had 60 countries. I remember right saying, Maduro has got to go. It wasn’t enough,” Abrams said. “What has been done so far isn’t enough. Quite obviously, it hasn’t worked. Maduro is still there.”
Abrams previously told the Washington Examiner that the U.S. could target airstrips, military bases, and hit ships that haven’t left port if Trump approves.
Elliott has a long history in Washington, having served in the State Department during the Reagan Administration, when the U.S. intervened in El Salvador and Nicaragua, among others in the 1980s. He was also a central figure in the unwinding of the Iran-Contra scandal and pleaded guilty in 1991 to two misdemeanor charges for withholding information from two congressional committees about it, though he received a pardon from President George H.W. Bush the next year.
Trump was briefed on updated military operation options for Venezuela by senior military leaders on Wednesday, though the president has yet to make a final decision, according to CBS News.
Venezuela ordered a massive mobilization of forces earlier this week in response to the arrival of the U.S.’s largest and most modern aircraft carrier. Venezuela’s military has older and outdated military equipment, which would likely be of little match for U.S. forces, if the U.S. goes that route.
It military has about 20 Russian SU-30 fighter aircraft, about 15-16 older F-16 aircraft, some tanks and armored vehicles, and a layered air defense system, according to retired Adm. Laura Richardson, who previously served as the commander of U.S. Southern Command.
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“It’s old. It’s outdated. And really, I think it’s more to protect the internal part of the country, the capital and the regime, versus being really a country’s defense system,” she said during the same event as Abrams. “So they have some capability, more capability than most countries in Latin America, but certainly not to. counter the capability that is in the region from the United States.”
Another official from the first administration, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, said earlier this week that he does not believe the military is the “best tool to use” regarding Venezuela, and cautioned the president that while there are “a lot of reasons” to want Maduro gone, “it’s easy to get into a war, [but] it can be hard to get out of a war.”
