President Donald Trump’s administration is not satisfied with the “status quo” of President Nicolas Maduro’s “illegitimate” regime in Venezuela and is trying to “change that dynamic,” according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The United States has carried out a sustained and multipronged campaign against the Venezuelan dictator over the last several months as his administration has prioritized the Western Hemisphere, or the U.S.’s backyard, for its national security strategy.
The U.S. military has blown up more than two dozen boats purportedly carrying drugs intended for the U.S., killing more than 100 people amid the largest U.S. naval buildup in the region in decades; the Treasury Department has sanctioned members of Maduro’s family; and Trump ordered a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, which is the Maduro government’s main source of income.
“We certainly don’t have [cooperation] from the regime in Venezuela, who actually don’t just not cooperate with us, they openly cooperate with narcotrafficking elements that use Venezuela as a transshipment point,” Rubio said at the State Department earlier this month. “These criminal terrorist groups… [are the] root cause of violence in Ecuador, in Mexico, in all of Central America.”
He added, “This is an illegitimate regime that not only does not cooperate with the United States, but that also openly cooperates with criminal elements.”
It’s unclear whether Trump would be willing to use military force to push him out of power, even though he said publicly that he approved the CIA to carry out covert missions in Venezuela and has said the U.S. would carry out strikes on Venezuelan soil “soon” for weeks. He has also warned that Maduro’s days are “numbered.”
These comments appear to be an intentional part of Trump’s plan to make Maduro feel squeezed by the U.S. pressure campaign.
“I think the primary objective has been clear for quite some time, and that is regime change in Venezuela under the guise of removing a criminal regime that’s engaged in drug trafficking. The seizure of the oil tanker a few days ago and now declaring a blockade against other sanctioned tankers is just another tool that the president is using to ratchet up the pressure on the Maduro government, this time using economic means,” Christopher Hernandez-Roy, deputy director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Washington Examiner.
The recent seizure of multiple sanctioned oil tankers “elevates the campaign in the Caribbean from a counter drug operation to an operation that’s also about cutting off the financial lifelines to Maduro,” Jason Marczak, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, told the Washington Examiner.
Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, told Vanity Fair that the military will continue to target alleged drug smuggling boats until Maduro “cries uncle.”
The U.S. Navy has a significant buildup of capabilities and manpower in the Caribbean, much larger than any instance in decades. The military presence, experts say, is far greater than what’s needed for the boat strikes alone, raising the specter of other operations.
“It also seems clear that the Trump administration wants to apply as many tools as possible without keeping some sort of military option or kinetic action as a very, very last resort,” Hernandez-Roy said.
The U.S. military presence will not be able to stay in the region indefinitely, experts say, noting that it puts somewhat of a time frame on possible operations.
“You don’t park 20% of the Navy’s assets and the largest aircraft carrier in the United States, fleet off the coast of Venezuela, and wait indefinitely for regime change,” Hernandez-Roy said. “If all of these non-kinetic actions don’t lead to regime change, I think there’s definitely a possibility at some point, when that is I have no idea, that the administration might target assets on land that can be credibly described as facilitating or being part of the drug trade, and those could include military assets.”
The Trump administration has increased the bounty on Maduro’s head from $25 million to $50 million.
The increased reward and the announced sanction of the oil tanker embargo could create domestic pressure on Maduro to step down from power, although he has been able to withstand previous national protests.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has supported the Trump administration’s pressure campaign.
COAST GUARD ACTIVELY PURSUING THIRD TANKER IN CARIBBEAN AMID VENEZUELA BLOCKADE
The Trump administration released its national security strategy in early December, highlighting its prioritization of the Western Hemisphere and the military’s newly expanded role there.
The NSS want “a more suitable Coast Guard and Navy presence to control sea lanes, to thwart illegal and other unwanted migration, to reduce human and drug trafficking, and to control key transit routes in a crisis,” the document says, also noting that they want nearby countries’ governments to “cooperate with us against narco-terrorists, cartels, and other transnational criminal organizations.”
