Undersecretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby outlined his vision for a “NATO 3.0″ to replace “NATO 2.0” in response to changing world dynamics.
Speaking at the NATO Defense Ministerial, Colby announced that the “unipolar moment” after the fall of the Soviet Union was now over, and that the United States and its allies must now prepare for a world in which the use of hard military power on a large scale by rivals is increasingly likely. He told the other NATO ministers that the U.S. had to prioritize the defense of the Western Hemisphere, and that the alliance must be ready for a potential simultaneous attack on multiple fronts.
“Times have changed, and it is only prudent that we adapt to meet them. This is not an abandonment of NATO. To the contrary, it is a return to and validation of its foundational purpose,” Colby said.
He outlined what he viewed as the different incarnations of NATO, beginning with NATO 1.0, the alliance created to counter the Soviets during the Cold War, defined by a “hard-nosed, realistic, clear-eyed approach to deterrence and defense.” He praised this version, then took on a more critical view of NATO 2.0, its current incarnation.
“This version of the Alliance was typified by a shift of effort and focus away from Europe’s defense toward ‘out of area’ operations and substantial disarmament on the continent, as well as a change in frame from the hard-nosed, flexible realism of the Cold War ‘NATO 1.0’ to much more of a liberal internationalist mindset of the ‘rules-based international order,'” he said.
Colby argued that this new approach “is no longer fit for purpose — certainly not for the United States and, we would submit, not for our allies either.”
“What is needed is a ‘NATO 3.0’ — something much closer to ‘NATO 1.0’ than the approach of the last 35 years,” he continued. “This ‘NATO 3.0’ requires much greater efforts by our allies to step up and assume primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe.”
While President Donald Trump’s increasing demands for greater European contributions to NATO have led to notable tensions, Colby put a positive spin on recent developments, saying the “turning of the tide has happened,” and the alliance was already well on its way to becoming “NATO 3.0.”
“But the great task before us in 2026 and beyond is to turn that recognition into durable and real results,” he said. “The commitment to aligning resources with strategic requirements must now be fulfilled in practice.”
The shifting of resources to defend other areas of U.S. interest did not, he argued, represent a “retreat from Europe,” but rather “an affirmation of strategic pragmatism and a recognition of our allies’ undeniable ability to step up and lead on Europe’s defense in a way that leaves all of us stronger and safer.”
The newest shifts in dynamics weren’t a rift in the alliance, he said, but rather a maturation.
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Colby has emerged as one of the primary grand strategists of Trump’s second administration. He champions a realist approach to international politics, arguing that the U.S. should focus its resources on deterring China and shift its focus away from Europe and the Middle East.
His 2021 book, The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict, outlined this grand strategy, saying that the U.S. should take up a defensive position in the Pacific and East Asia to contain China’s ambitions to become a hegemon in Asia through a series of alliances.
