The Guard’s consolidation of power since the war began “indicates that the Iranian political officials currently negotiating with the United States do not have the authority to independently determine Iran’s negotiating positions,” a weekend update from the Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats said.

The divide between Araghchi and Vahidi was on display late last week when the former announced the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened for commercial transit, only for the Revolutionary Guard’s Navy to attack multiple commercial vessels on April 18 and declare that no vessel of “any type or nationality” is permitted passage.

“This current dynamic likely reflects Vahidi’s position, relationships, and control over IRGC military elements, which has enabled him to wield significant authority over decision-making compared to other senior regime leaders such as Ghalibaf,” the ISW-Critical Threat update said. “Vahidi holds the most influential position in the regime at this time apart from the Supreme Leader, who is reportedly seriously injured or incapacitated.”

To date, U.S. Central Command has redirected 27 vessels sailing either to or from Iranian ports since the U.S. blockade began roughly a week ago.

On Sunday, U.S. forces aboard the guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance intercepted the M/V Tusk as it sailed en route to Bandar Abbas, Iran. After failing to comply repeatedly over the course of a six-hour period, U.S. forces directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room, and the Spruance subsequently disabled the ship’s propulsion. U.S. Marines later boarded the vessel, which remains in U.S. custody.

President Donald Trump announced there would be another round of negotiations early this week in Islamabad, though there has been conflicting reporting on who will be involved on the U.S. side and when exactly the talks may occur. The president initially indicated that Vice President JD Vance, who was part of the first U.S. delegation to engage their Iranian counterparts, may not be a part of the second round of talks.

Vance’s whereabouts were widely discussed on Monday, with conflicting reports about whether he was already on his way to Pakistan or waiting to head there.

It’s unclear whether Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan for the talks, though there have been reports that they would only attend if Vance were there as well.

Last Friday, Trump told various reporters in a series of short phone calls that Iran had agreed to meet several of the U.S. demands for a deal, which Ghalibaf vehemently denied, raising questions about how far both sides are willing to go, or not go, for a possible deal.

“They did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either,” the Iranian parliament speaker said.

Trump announced the two-week ceasefire on April 7, which is set to expire late Tuesday night, though the president told Bloomberg News on Monday that the deal goes until April 22. He told the outlet it’s “highly unlikely that I’d extend” the ceasefire if no deal is reached before then.

The stakes are high if a deal is not reached before the ceasefire ends.

On Sunday, Trump warned, “We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran.”

Both Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth have claimed Iran has undergone regime change, and the newer leaders are more moderate and willing to make a deal. Despite their claims, it appears that the Guard’s hard-liners have taken more power since the onset of the war, not less, though many within their senior leader ranks have been killed.

TRUMP PLAYS FRIDAY TELEPHONE TENNIS WITH REPORTERS AS HE PAINTS ROSY PICTURE ON IRAN DEAL

Vahidi was born in 1958 in Shiraz. He had been studying electronic engineering at Shiraz University during the Iranian Revolution in 1979, around the time he joined the Revolutionary Guard. He went on to lead the Guard’s Quds Force, which specializes in intelligence and direct operations outside of Iran, served as deputy defense minister, defense minister, and interior minister.

He is also linked to the 1994 bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, that killed 85 people and wounded hundreds of others. Argentine prosecutors issued arrest warrants for him and four others in connection with the attack, while the United Kingdom’s Interpol issued a Red Notice alert in 2007 to inform the international law enforcement community of the outstanding arrest warrant.

If the ceasefire comes to an end without a deal, Vahidi could use his influence to push for a continuation and possible escalation of Iranian counterattacks across the Gulf states.