The Economy: Mixed Signals

First time claims fell, as Reuters reports, by:

…36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000 for the week ended March 7. That was well below economists’ expectations for a drop to only 305,000 and unwound much of the prior two weeks’ increases, which had pushed claims well above the 300,000 mark.

Good news, of course.  But:

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third straight month in February as harsh weather kept consumers from auto showrooms and shopping malls, tempering the outlook for first-quarter growth and a June interest rate increase.

And the decline may be ominous and more than a mere blip that could be passed off as weather-related since this:

… was the first time since 2012 that sales had dropped for three consecutive months. 

As is often noted, consumer spending account for more than 2/3 of economic activity in the U.S. so the decline has led to downward revisions in GDP forecasts and concerns that the economy may be backsliding.

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