Two percent is no solution. That’s the growth rate chalked up by the U.S. economy in the first quarter (1.9 percent for those who believe in the precision with which GDP is measured) and that most forecasters see in America’s near-term future. Macroeconomic Advisers is not alone in lowering its forecast for this year’s growth, from 2.4 percent, which it expected a few months ago, to 2.1 percent. That won’t do much to bring down unemployment, or to persuade businesses to worry less and invest more, or to prize a few extra dollars from consumers to send their kiddies back to school in style. Which adds to gloom created by forest fires in the West, destructive storms in the East that have left millions without electricity, 100-degree heat in many parts of the country, and a Fourth of July holiday that fell on a Wednesday, eliminating the possibility of stretching the celebration of our independence into the long weekends that are created when the holiday falls on any other weekday.
Worst of all, the second quarter was the worst for job creation in two years. Only some 80,000 jobs were added in June, the unemployment rate remained stuck at 8.2 percent, and the more meaningful rate (technically, U6), which includes workers too discouraged to continue looking for work and those involuntarily working short hours, ticked up to 14.9 percent. That means that over 23 million workers can’t find full time work. Some 5.4 million have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer, and millions more have dropped out of the labor force completely, bringing the share of the working-age population with jobs or looking for work to a 30-year low.
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