One thing is certain in these waning hours of the presidential and congressional election campaigns: it is Barack Obama and the current members of Congress who will have to make the initial decision on what to do about what we have come to call the fiscal cliff. By the time the new Congress and the next president will have been sworn in on January 21 of next year, the Bush tax cuts will have expired, and spending programs pared. Only Obama and the lame duck Congress can prevent what many believe will be an inevitable recession.

If the Bush cuts expire, taxes on families earning less than $250,000 per year will go up by a total of $173 billion, and on those earning more than that by a total of $75 billion. In addition, funds for several government programs will be cut—“sequestered” in political jargon—by $87 billion. Those tax increases and spending cuts would take about 2.1 percent out of GDP.