The average American family is not going to cancel a trip to Disneyland because of headlines about “something going on in Italy or France,” says James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. So he is guessing “The holiday season will be reasonable.” Pollsters support that view. They predict that 152 million shoppers will head to the shops and malls this holiday shopping season, which begins this Friday. That’s 10 percent more than last year. Actually, the season will begin 9 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day, the time at which the stores hoping to lure early bird bargain hunters will open their doors, beating the laggards who will wait until midnight or 4 a.m. on Friday.

New data on consumer spending supports the view that retailers might be about to be treated to a long-deferred whirl around the floor with good old Rosy Scenario, who hasn’t been seen around the malls for a good long while. Retail sales, which rose by 1.1 percent in September, added a stronger than expected 0.5 percent increase in October, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Consumers seem to be less gloomy than in the recent past: Consumer confidence, although still below its long-term average, is at a seven-month high, supporting Bullard’s view that events in far away Europe are not uppermost in consumers’ minds, although they weigh heavily on policymakers and many investors.