Crude trades below below $40. Copper has “sunk as low as around $4,440 in late November, the lowest in some six and a half years.” Larry Summers is warning in the Washington Post that:
… U.S. and international experience suggests that once a recovery is mature, the odds that it will end within two years are about half and that it will end in less than three years are over two-thirds. Because normal growth is now below 2 percent rather than near 3 percent, as has been the case historically, the risk may even be greater now. While the risk of recession may seem remote given recent growth, it bears emphasizing that since World War II, no postwar recession has been predicted a year in advance by the Fed, the White House or the consensus forecast.
Today, comes news that:
U.S. factory activity in November fell to the lowest level since the end of the recession, as a weak global economy and strong dollar continued to buffet the manufacturing sector. The Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday that its gauge of manufacturing activity fell to 48.6 from 50.1 in October, slipping into contraction territory for the first time since the end of 2012. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.
“Contraction” is just another word for “recession,” which some investments firms are giving a 65 percent chance of occurring in 2016.
The economy has not been high on the list of media concerns of late. But that does not mean that people are not feeling the pinch and that they will not be looking for answers – and to retaliate with their votes – come November.
