President Joe Biden and Democrats received a glimmer of good economic news this week, but it may be too little, too late to alter the trajectory of November’s midterm elections.
Although voter attention spans have shortened, pollsters caution Democrats that conventional wisdom dictates the public needs six months of strong economic data to feel positive about their own finances — and there are only 100-odd days until the fall fights.
BIDEN’S STALLED AGENDA CREATES HURDLES FOR DEMOCRATS BEFORE MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Republican pollster Ed Goeas has advised candidates about the time horizon for voters to conclude the economy is “getting better” despite gas prices dipping 50 cents per gallon since June on top of solid jobs and unemployment numbers.
“We’ve now passed that point, and so the economy is going to continue to be the No. 1 issue through the election, and that’s not where the progressives necessarily want him talking,” Tarrance Group’s Goeas told the Washington Examiner of Biden. “But quite frankly, if they don’t all get on that issue more, the Democrats are going to be in deep trouble in the 2022 election.”
Presidential historian David Pietrusza cited former President George H.W. Bush’s unsuccessful 1992 reelection cycle as an example of an incumbent notching “not enough” economic improvement.
“Improvement in one category may not necessarily be enough for Biden,” he said. “Gas prices may be declining, though still very high, but there is tremendous angst regarding the market.”
“Stocks impact far more than the so-called 1%,” Pietrusza went on. “As for inflation, don’t get me going.”
The White House denied it was reveling in the gas price relief, the national average down to $4.50 a gallon this week from roughly $5 in June. But economic aide Jared Bernstein told reporters Monday that represents the fastest drop in retail value in a decade, saving motorists $25 each per month and the economy $190 million every day. He attributed it partly to the release of 84 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil and the relaxation of ethanol blend regulations.
“This is nothing close to a victory lap because we have much more to do to achieve the president’s agenda of helping families get some breathing room in this tough environment,” Bernstein said.
At the same time, Bernstein was adamant the reduction in gas prices is “a trend” and “not a blip,” even when needled on oil again costing more than $100 a barrel amid the one-year anniversary of the White House insisting that inflation, currently at 9.1%, would be “transitory.”
In addition to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in her Monday briefing, Communications Director Kate Bedingfield added her voice to the chorus of senior administration officials on television and in print crowing about gas prices.
“While the rise in gas prices last month due to ‘Putin’s Price Hike’ was met by wall-to-wall media coverage, the fall in gas prices has not earned the same reception,” she wrote in a memo, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Bedingfield amplified, too, White House complaints that gas retailers are profiteering from the circumstances by not sharing the decrease in oil prices with consumers.
The Republican National Committee has criticized the White House for scrutinizing the energy sector when its chief industry adviser, Amos Hochstein, was on CNN on Tuesday saying the country should better balance its short-, medium-, and long-term objectives to “accelerate the transition” to green sources.
Biden energy advisor Amos Hochstein: We need to stop projects and limit oil usage to “accelerate the transition.” pic.twitter.com/ItxMdcmAnJ
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 19, 2022
“Biden taking a victory lap as gas prices are still more than $2 per gallon then when he took office underscores how woefully out of touch this White House is with the American people,” RNC spokesman Will O’Grady said. “We can think of worse communications strategies bragging about record high gas prices, but there aren’t many.”
A Democratic staffer dismissed Goeas’s timeline, contending that the party would enjoy “good music where we can” and “highlight how things are getting better for voters.”
“We’re going to focus on making a positive case, but we’re also going to go after Republicans and their plans and make sure that voters see what is at stake,” he said, mentioning National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott’s (R-FL) personal proposal concerning Social Security and Medicare.
Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos asserted that it is “fair game” for Biden to embark on a gas price victory lap, just as it was fair game for him to be lambasted when they rose in the first place, undermining Biden’s Russia-Ukraine war argument.
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“The time frame could be less,” he said, alluding to limited attention spans and the possibility the reprieve may not hold. “It could be two months or three months, in which case he’s within that time frame, and he has a fighting chance.”
