States that have reopened their economies are, on average, showing no signs of an uptick in coronavirus cases, according to a Washington Examiner analysis.
It’s been two weeks since Georgia and South Carolina started reopening their economies, so it is very early in the process, but it’s not possible yet to say they made a mistake.
Data show that states that have moved to restart commercial activity are not suffering worse than those that have stayed locked down.
There is a big caveat, which is that public health experts warn that comparisons are premature.
“The incubation period for COVID-19 could be up to 14 days, and that isn’t necessarily when people get tested by healthcare workers. It often takes longer,” said Dr. Marissa Levine, a former state health commissioner in Virginia. “So, it may be too early to make a determination.”
Others suggested we may have to wait for even more time to elapse.
“Because there are substantial delays from the time of infection to reporting of a case, we probably need to wait about three to four weeks after the restrictions are lifted to start to grasp its effect on the trajectory of the epidemics,” said Gerardo Chowell, chairman of the Department of Population Health Sciences at Georgia State University.
People do not necessarily end social distancing because their state loosens restrictions, which can be seen as an argument that government coercion is unnecessary.
“I think society will not necessarily run to the hair salons or the movie theaters immediately after the restrictions are lifted, but it may take people some time to regain confidence,” said Chowell. Thus, it may not be an indication that the risk of virus outbreaks has passed if a state sees no spike in cases after initial reopening.
Data on social distancing showed no obvious trend over the last week. The University of Maryland’s social distancing index sat at 58 on May 3. It dipped down to the low 40s a few days later but rose back to 53 Sunday. The percent of people staying home has changed little in the last seven days, fluctuating slightly between 25% and 31%.
Differing levels of lockdown enforcement may also confound judgment about whether it’s time to reopen.
“Some of these states that said they were closed, some of them were really closed, and some of them never were closed,” said Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director at the American Public Health Association.
Many states and localities fined people who were not wearing masks in public. But some cities, such as Miami Beach, issued warnings. After the case of Shelley Luther, a woman arrested for opening her Dallas hair salon, went viral, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, eliminated jail time for people who violated the stay-at-home order.
A recent outbreak in southern Colorado shows that the risk of the coronavirus still lingers. Ninety-three people at a mushroom farm were tested for the virus, and 19 were positive. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, permitted personal care businesses to reopen with precautions on May 1.
On Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, a leading member of the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, testified to a Senate committee that returning to normal levels of economic activity would “result in needless suffering and death.”
