As leaders prepared the public for what would turn into widespread shutdowns of business and leisure activities, they made it abundantly clear that the point was to “flatten the curve” of growth in coronavirus cases. That is, when it was clear that the virus could not be contained, the strategy shifted to an effort to space out inevitable infections over a longer period, so there were as few cases as possible at the peak. The idea was to prevent the number of cases from exceeding the capacity of the hospital system and thus save the system from collapse.

“If you look at the curves of outbreaks — you know, they go big peaks, and then they come down,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters on March 10. “What we need to do is flatten that down.” Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar said much the same thing on March 15, adding, “The point of this is, instead of a spike of the curve, to delay and flatten that curve with the hope that you can keep the utilization of resources to be within the healthcare system’s capacities.”