Polymarket users are betting on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaling interest rate cuts at the beginning of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee press conference by opening with “good afternoon.”
At the press conference, slated for 2:30 p.m., Powell is expected to announce the Federal Reserve’s latest update on interest rates. While inflation is above the Fed’s desired rate at around 2.8%, 98% of users are implicitly counting on rate cuts by betting on Powell’s opening greeting.
Powell, 72, who was originally nominated by President Donald Trump during his first term in 2018, has a habit of opening a meeting before announcing a rate cut with the phrase “good morning,” while opening meetings before keeping rates the same with “hello everyone.”
Powell last cut rates in October, and opened that meeting by saying, “Good afternoon” to those in the room. Polymarket noted in an X post that the last time Powell didn’t cut interest rates, it hurt the stock market.
“The last time he skipped it, the Dow plunged nearly 1,000 points. What could go wrong?” the Polymarket account wrote.
Polymarket users are also betting that Powell will mention the government shutdown, which happened after the last FOMC meeting, at 87%. Another 85% of bettors expect Powell to mention unemployment, while 76% predict Powell will mention inflation over 40 times during the meeting.
Bettors on Polymarket have successfully predicted happenings in the past, including that Rep. Matt Van Epps (R-TN) would win his special election and that Trump would win the presidential election in 2024.
STOCKS SINK AFTER POWELL SAYS DECEMBER RATE CUT ‘NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION’
As of Wednesday morning, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s odds of taking over as Fed chairman rose to 71% on Polymarket. Powell’s term is up in May 2026.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates Polymarket in the U.S. after issuing an enforcement action against the betting platform in 2022. While the CFTC historically regulated agricultural commodities, Polymarket was the first prediction market to receive CFTC approval to operate in the United States.
