It is not for nothing that Victorian historian Thomas Carlyle’s description of economics as the “dismal science” hangs around the profession’s neck like some dreadful albatross. For where most people see clear blue skies, we see clouds. Just as the American economy is picking up, threats are looming to the new, stronger recovery from far away places, most particularly Europe and China, and from here at home, in Washington. But first the good news. 

Both the manufacturing and service sectors are growing, with new orders for manufactured goods leading the parade of good news, and the service sector expanding for 12 consecutive months. Auto sales rose last month for the eleventh consecutive month, with sales of light trucks and big SUVs leading the way; General Motors predicts the industry’s sales of cars and light trucks will hit between 13 million and 13.5 million vehicles, a significant rise from last year’s 12 million. The two-month holiday season was the best for retailers since 2006, helping to fuel a worldwide spurt in manufacturing activity. Even the troubled commercial property market might be about to leave the intensive-care unit: in the last quarter of 2010 businesses took up additional office space for the first time in three years, and rents began to recover. Only the jobs market remained weak — don’t be misled by the reported dip in the unemployment rate from 9.8 percent in November to 9.4 percent last month. Experts say it is a statistical anomaly, and that the rate of job creation remains too low to recover the 8.5 million jobs lost during the recession any time soon.