The fourth quarter economic growth numbers are in, and they are ugly:
It seems likely that poor economic growth played a big result in Donald Trump’s presidential victory, particularly since it hinged on rust belt states where the economy is particularly bad relative to the rest of the country. As a rather famous Clinton campaign aide once said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” (Well, James Carville’s actual quote was slightly different.) President Obama was the first president in modern history to not have a single year of 3 percent or better annual economic growth, a fact that Trump highlighted during the final days of the campaign.
Obviously elections are won and lost by according to any number of variables, but discussion of traditional metrics such as the economy usually relied on to explain election results have been buried under an avalanche of hyperbole about fake news, Russian hacking, and FBI director James Comey.
Trump treasury secretary-designee Steve Mnuchin has said that returning the U.S. to 3 to 4 percent economic growth will be his top priority. In an economy that’s been soft for years, that goal might be ambitious, but at least one major investment bank, Deutsche Bank, is forecasting that the Trump administration and GOP Congress’s economic policies will produce 3.6 percent annual GDP growth by 2018.
