The good news for Mayor Adrian Fenty in the first political poll of the season is that his core supporters are satisfied with his performance on key issues.
The bad news is that a year away from the next mayoral campaign, close to half the people polled in three crucial wards would consider another candidate.
Translation: Fenty does not have a lock on re-election. The executive job in the nation’s capital is still up for grabs.
The poll was taken last month by a political action committee financed by businesses. Though it sampled voters in only three wards, the results are telling — and surprising. And not all of the news is bad for Fenty.
The mayor’s “favorables” are great, especially in Ward 3, where the percentage of voters is very high. In the province west of Rock Creek and hard by the Maryland line, 77 percent of the respondents gave Fenty a favorable read. The number fell to 66 percent in Ward 1, in the city’s central neighborhoods in and around Adams Morgan. In Ward 6, including Capitol Hill, the number dropped to 63 percent. Still, not bad.
Next most popular city official? Council Chair Vince Gray? At-large member Kwame Brown? No and no. Most favorable ratings after Fenty went to schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee. The hard-charging school reformer got high favorables in Ward 3 (69 percent), Ward 6 (58 percent) and Ward 1 (57 percent).
So the Fenty-Rhee tag team is running high. The poll had more good news for the duo. Asked which issues should be a “top priority” for the mayor and D.C. Council, education won by a huge margin. Fixing the schools was touted by 48 percent, followed by crime at 13 and jobs at 12.
Gray’s favorable rating was middling. In the bellwether Ward 3, only 42 percent of the respondents gave him a favorable rating. He broke 50 percent in Ward 1.
Bigger losers? At-large rookie Council member Michael Brown had a combined favorable rating of 30 percent. Attorney General Peter Nickles might not want to enter any popularity contests. His fave rating was 17 percent.
What are we to make of this inaugural poll?
First, Fenty has left nearly half of the voters open to a challenger. True, that candidate has yet to emerge, and Gray is not very popular. But as Fenty found when he beat Charlene Drew Jarvis in Ward 4 years ago, an energetic insurgent can bump off an incumbent.
Second, the business group that helped defeat Carol Schwartz is alive and sharpening its tools for the next round. The poll was commissioned by the Nation’s Capital Committee for Good Government PAC. It is backed by the restaurant association, Realtors, landlords and other local businesses. The group was founded by legendary local parking magnate Leonard “Bud” Doggett. A native Washingtonian, Doggett could haul pols into his office and get his way, often for the good of the city.
The Good Government PAC aims to channel Bud and do the same.
E-mail Harry Jaffe at [email protected].
