Va. unemployment dips below 7 percent in July

Northern Virginia boasted the lowest unemployment rate in the state, at 5 percent — down from 5.5 percent in June — according to data released Tuesday by the Virginia Employment Commission.

Arlington County, Loudoun County, Fairfax County and Alexandria had unemployment rates below 5 percent, which is generally considered to be full employment, said William Mezger, chief economist at the commission’s Economic Information Services Division. Prince William County was ranked 12th out of 136 cities and counties in the state, with a rate of 5.4 percent.

The many students who had flooded the labor market in May and June had found work or stopped looking in July, helping the monthly jobless rate, Mezger said. “The Washington area has a lot of students,” he said.

The specific sampling week, July 12-18, and the timing of plant furloughs were also major factors in the dip, Mezger said. In addition to students leaving the market, the two biggest weeks for summer plant vacation furloughs were the weeks of June 28-July 4 and July 5-July 11. The furloughs increased about 60 percent from the 2008 vacation season, but many workers were back at work by the week of July 12, the commission said.

With many students returning to school and an education job market that typically stagnates in August, a 7 percent unemployment rate for August would not be surprising, Mezger said.

“The labor force usually decreases a whole lot from July to August,” he said. With a smaller labor force and a comparable number of unemployed people, the jobless rate could rise, he added.

In the fall, however, employment associated with back-to-school, harvest seasonand the holidays could cause another drop in the rate. Mezger estimated a state level of 6.7 or 6.8 percent by December, barring any catastrophe.

Nine of Virginia’s 10 metropolitan areas posted lessunemployment from June to July. Danville’s rate remained unchanged, at 12.7 percent, which was the highest in the state.

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