Hispanics, it’s no secret, star in the long-running hit about demography leading to a permanent governing majority for Democrats.
The story line is well known. Owing to migration and birth rates, the Hispanic share of the U.S. population is growing. And naturally, Hispanic voters will overwhelmingly punch the ticket for Democrats, who, everyone knows, really care about minorities, as opposed to the Republicans.
The only problem with this story is that exit polls from the midterm elections should, again, remind Democrats that if they are to turn America into a progressive paradise with high taxes, a low-growth economy, K-12 gender-neutral bathroom mandates, and an end to America’s military superiority as entitlements gobble up the entire federal budget, they can’t necessarily count on Hispanics getting them there.
For the religious practitioners of identity politics, 2044 is a very important year. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, that’s when whites will no longer be a majority of Americans.
As sociologist Richard Alba explains, the bureau’s methodology “produces the smallest possible estimate of the non-Hispanic white population.” Any child of mixed parents, a white father and Hispanic mother, or a white dad and Asian mom, for example, is considered nonwhite.
But this ignores the reality that many children born in mixed families “will likely be integrated into largely white social milieus and identify, at least some of the time, as white.”
The bigger reason the demography-is-destiny narrative may turn out to be a dud is that Hispanics haven’t proven to be the monolithic voting bloc that Democrats had hoped for.
So now enter the midterm elections, and what Univision news personality and University of Southern California journalism professor Leon Krauze melodramatically described as the Hispanic “moral failure.”
It turns out that many Hispanic voters don’t buy the line about President Trump being a racist, or else don’t care. More to the point, it’s possible that some of Krauze’s fellow Latinos actually believe that GOP candidates and ideas are better for them and their families.
Consider school choice. A 2015 survey by Braun Research on behalf of the Friedman Foundation found that Hispanics support charter schools and educational vouchers to the tune of 62 percent and 71 percent, respectively, compared with 53 percent and 61 percent of Americans overall. Hispanics support education savings accounts and tax credit scholarships at a clip of 73 percent and 76 percent, compared to 62 percent and 60 percent nationally.
Krauze is really bothered that “one of Trump’s darlings,” Republican Ron DeSantis, got an estimated 44 percent of the Hispanic vote as he won Florida’s governor’s race. In the Sunshine State, GOP-led reforms — rewarding high-performing teachers, holding underperforming schools accountable, abolishing charter caps, vouchers funded through corporate tax credits, public school choice, establishing alternative teaching certification paths for talented individuals, ending social promotion, etc. — have vastly improved K-12 education.
Hispanic students in Florida now outperform their Hispanic counterparts in virtually every other state on NAEP exams, including much wealthier states such as Massachusetts. (See here and here.)
Perhaps DeSantis’s Latino backers prefer a Trump darling to a liberal Democrat, in the person of Andrew Gillum, who, as the Washington Examiner’s Susan Ferrechio reported, threatened to undo these school reforms and ruin something that is working well.
Maybe these voters get that Democrats, who need the cash and votes delivered by the teachers’ unions, are the ones erecting barriers against poor, inner-city minority kids from enrolling in high-performing charter or voucher-backed private schools.
But the “woke” crowd wears blinders. Progressive politicians’ first priority to protect the education monopoly of their political funders. This is a clear instance of public corruption, and the quid pro quo behind what is currently America’s worst civil rights scandal.
It’s worth noting that educational choice and empowerment issues aren’t the only area where the GOP is a better fit for Hispanic Americans. Here’s a doozy: According to Pew Research Center, a majority of Hispanics, 53 percent, believe that abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. For today’s Democratic Party, abortion on demand is a holy writ, perhaps the party’s defining issue. Merely questioning the morality of killing unborn but inconvenient human life is verboten.
GOP support among Hispanics should probably be higher. Hispanic voters identify as Democrats far more than Republicans, yet more of these same voters consider themselves conservative than liberal, Pew polling shows.
The best explanation: Failure to enact comprehensive immigration reform puts the GOP on defense and tamps down Latino demand for Republicans, which brings up 2019. There’s an opportunity for Trump to forge an agreement on immigration. Will Democrats take the risk of letting him cut such a deal?
Kenneth Sondik is an attorney in Indiana.
