Maryland school officials already are focusing on saving potential dropouts in the class of 2012, as the class of 2009 prepares to graduate.
In Montgomery County, about 9 percent of eighth-graders and 17 percent of ninth-graders were ineligible for extracurricular activities three out of four quarters last school year, putting them in a high-risk category for leaving school altogether, according to a district report.
Broken down by race, the numbers are more revealing: 30 percent of black ninth-graders faced the same problems, with 33 percent of their Hispanic peers.
“Grade eight and nine students may be particularly vulnerable to the effects of personal, social or educational experiences that might impact their course marks,” the report said.
In response to the statistics, which are down slightly from 2006 and 2007, district researchers recommended renewed focus on monitoring attendance and grades and reaching out to at-risk students.
Efforts to institute major middle school reforms in Montgomery, including smaller classes and more hands-on instruction, have been hindered by two years of tight budgets.
In Prince George’s County, a March report showed that less than one-third of students who fail four or more classes during their freshman year graduate in four years.
About one-third of freshmen in Prince George’s who had 10 or more absences any year of middle school also will not graduate in four years, the report said.
A new computer tracking system to identify at-risk students has been implemented in county high schools and is being tested at three middle schools: Benjamin Tasker, William Wirt and Walker Mill.
In both counties, the senior class is significantly smaller than the freshman class — a fact that takes into account several factors, but most notably dropouts. In Montgomery, about 11,800 freshmen enrolled in the fall, compared with about 10,900 seniors. In Prince George’s, about 12,700 freshmen enrolled, compared with 8,500 seniors.
“Most researchers are agreeing that interventions by seventh and eighth grade are more important now than by ninth and 10th grade,” said Victoria-Maria MacDonald, an education professor at the University of Maryland. “If by eighth grade students and parents are aware of what path they need to be on to succeed in high school, that’s the key difference.”
