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TRUMP’S NEW CAR RULE LOOKS TO PLAY IT ‘SAFE’: The Trump administration looks poised to issue its version of clean-car rules this week, seeking to make fuel efficiency mandates less strict for safety’s sake.

SAFER: The new Trump fuel efficiency rules for cars and light-trucks is being called “Safer and Affordable Fuel Efficient Vehicles Rule,” or SAFE VR, according to documents shared at recent meetings at the White House.

Traffic fatalities: The administration will resort to an argument frequently used over the last 40 years, that less fuel-efficient cars can reduce traffic fatalities. Autormakers, the thinking goes, will not be inclined to make design decisions that would reduce the weight of their cars in order to save fuel.

EPA and DOT: Both the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Transportation collaborate in developing the regulations, which require all automakers to meet a fleet-wide average for fuel efficiency. That average appears on most cars’ windows in the dealer’s lot.

Climate change: EPA also handles the levels of greenhouse gas emissions automakers are allowed to emit across their fleets of cars. The fuel-efficiency rules had been part of Former President Obama’s “Climate Action Plan,” which Trump scuttled in his first few weeks in office.

Onward to repeal: The Trump clean-car program seeks to repeal the Obama administration’s decision to move forward with new, stricter rules, despite the auto-industry’s protests.

Consumer preference: The industry pressed Trump to repeal the Obama-era decision and develop standards that take into account consumers’ preferences for larger, less fuel efficient SUVs and pick-up trucks, resulting from relatively low gasoline prices over the last few years.

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CURBELO INTROS CARBON TAX, CHALLENGES GOP TO CONFRONT ‘REALITY’: Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., on Monday became the first Republican to introduce national carbon pricing legislation in nearly a decade, challenging his party to confront climate change to save future generations from “crushing environmental debt.”

“While there are still some deniers out there, most Americans today understand that climate change caused by human activity is a reality that must be addressed,” Curbelo said at an event at the National Press Club, put on by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

“I remind my colleagues who often decry our nation’s growing debt that saddling young Americans with a crushing environmental debt, meaning an unhealthy planet, is at least as immoral as leaving behind an unsustainable fiscal debt,” Curbelo added. “The time to act is now.”

Carrots for GOP: Curbelo, whose South Florida district is affected by any rise in sea levels, designed the bill to tempt Republicans into supporting a tax on carbon emissions in place of the federal gas tax.

Curbelo’s bill would impose a tax beginning at $24 per ton of carbon dioxide in 2020, but which rises 2 percent annually above inflation. At the same time, it repeals the federal taxes on gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels.

In a nod to Trump, the legislation would use the revenues from the carbon tax to fund infrastructure improvements, some of which would be directed for flood-mitigation projects and other initiatives to protect against the potential effects of climate change.

Another 10 percent of the carbon tax proceeds would be used as grants for low-income households, a provision intended to combat conservative critics who say taxing oil refineries, gas plants, and coal mines for the carbon dioxide they burn would disproportionately harm poorer people who spend more of their income on energy.

Additional money would support job training for energy workers displaced because of the carbon tax.

Curbelo’s proposal would also restrict the ability of the EPA to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act.

‘Spark a debate’: While the bill stands little chance of passage, Curbelo said he hoped to “spark a debate” about how carbon pricing is the most cost-effective way to combat climate change.

“I truly believe that this bill or legislation similar to it will become law,” Curbelo said. “In the short-term, it will spark an important debate about investing in our country’s infrastructure, the way we tax, and what to do to protect the environment from the perils of human-induced changes in the climate.”

Climate and costs: A new independent study, led by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, found that Curbelo’s legislation would cause little damage to the overall economy, while dramatically reducing planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions.

The bill would cause reductions in annual gross domestic product between 0.1 and 0.2 percent in the 2020s, while prompting total employment to decline by only between 0.02 and 0.04 percent.

The study projected that Curbelo’s bill would cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 30 to 40 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and 27 to 32 percent reductions by 2025, ahead of the goals set in the Clean Power Plan.

“In a vacuum, any tax is detrimental to economic growth,” Curbelo said. “More and more Republicans understand how carbon pricing could fit into the context of infrastructure investment, tax reform, and take into account the economic benefits of fighting climate change and mitigating the forecasts of what climate change can mean for areas like South Florida and many others across the country.”

CONSERVATIVES READY TO BATTLE CURBELO’S CARBON TAX BILL: Curbelo’s bill quickly prompted an effort by lawmakers in his own party to kill it.

“There is a real interest in pretending this is a live issue, but it’s not,” Grover Norquist, the founder and president of Americans for Tax Reform, told Josh. “What they do is say some Republicans like the idea of the carbon tax. But it will never ever happen. The Republican Party has made it very clear that they are overwhelmingly opposed to a carbon tax.”

Norquist’s group hosted a competing an event Monday morning at the National Press Club to highlight conservative opposition to a carbon tax.

‘Horrid bill’: While Curbelo’s supporters are hoping it can gain traction among Republicans, Norquist predicts it’s already dead, in part because it would increase federal tax revenues and spend them.

“It’s a really horrid bill if you read it,” Norquist said. “This is a very regressive across the board tax on energy. It is extorting money from American industry. If you had to have the anti-Trump bill, to go against everything he is doing, this is the kill American manufacturing bill.”

NINTH CIRCUIT BLOCKS TRUMP’S SECOND ATTEMPT TO STOP CHILDREN’S CLIMATE LAWSUIT: A federal appeals court has rejected the Trump administration’s second attempt to throw out a climate change lawsuit by a group of children.

Court rejects administration argument: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals’ three-judge panel unanimously rejected the administration’s request for a judicial writ barring the lawsuit, Juliana v. United States, from being heard.

“We denied the government’s first mandamus petition, concluding that it had not met the high bar for relief at that stage of the litigation. No new circumstances justify this second petition, and we again decline to grant mandamus relief,” read the court’s order.

Moving to trial: Our Children’s Trust, representing 21 children in the lawsuit, said the ruling means the case will be heard. “This is a clean case about fundamental constitutional rights of children that not only deserves to be heard, but in our system of law, Article III courts have a duty to hear and decide this case,” said Julia Olson, co-counsel in the case. “The Ninth Circuit’s opinion reflects that.”

Supreme hurdle: The Trump administration has been trying hard to either stay the case or have it thrown out altogether. The 9th Circuit is the latest hurdle in that process, but the Supreme Court still has a chance to knock it out.

The administration has a petition pending before the Supreme Court, asking it to stay the case, after the 9th Circuit refused to grant its motion to stay the case.

Kennedy’s noon deadline: The Supreme Court has yet to issue an order, but Justice Anthony Kennedy has asked plaintiffs to respond to the Trump petition by noon on Monday, according to Our Children’s Trust.

IRAN WARNS TRUMP NOT TO THREATEN OIL EXPORTS: Iran President Hassan Rouhani warned President Trump Sunday to not cut off Iran’s oil exports with sanctions.

“No one who really understands politics would say they will block Iran’s oil exports, and we have many straits, the Strait of Hormuz is just one of those,” Rouhani said in a televised speech in Tehran.
“Mr Trump! We are the honest men who have throughout history guaranteed the safety of this region’s waterways,” Rouhani said. “Do not play with the lion’s tail, it will bring regret.”

Iran ships most of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

‘Zero’ oil export goal: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, Calif., reiterated Sunday the Trump administration’s goal of getting Iran’s oil exports to as close to zero as possible by Nov. 4, when it will reapply sanctions as a result of leaving the nuclear deal with Tehran.

The U.S. expects all countries to cut oil imports from Iran to “zero” by November or risk sanctions cutting their access to U.S. markets and financial institutions. It will consider exemptions as a last resort on a case by case basis.

TRUMP WARNS OF ‘CONSEQUENCES’ IF IRAN THREATENS AMERICA: Late Sunday night, Trump fired off a furious tweet in response to what he saw as a direct threat made by Rouhani.

“To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!”

‘War with Iran’: The tweet was likely not responding directly to Rouhani’s comments about oil.

“Peace with Iran would be the mother of all peace and war with Iran would be the mother of all wars,” Rouhani also said in his Sunday speech.

EXPERT: NEXT ECONOMIC COLLAPSE WILL BE DUE TO OIL: “Catastrophically high oil prices will cause the impending recession,” said Philip K. Verleger, senior adviser to the global consulting firm the Brattle Group and adviser to Congress on commodity prices, in a new analysis.

Sky is the limit: “The world oil market will see prices at least double.” And from there, the sky is the limit, according to his analysis.

Bracing for 2020: Verleger has rattled the internet in recent days with his projections that oil prices could soar as high as $400 per barrel in 2020 due to an oil supply-crunch driven by a lack of diesel fuel that meets clean-air standards.

Clean fuel conundrum: Verleger says the global demand for low-sulfur diesel, which the U.S. began requiring trucks to use in 2010, will increase global demand for the more expensive, lighter forms of crude oil to make the cleaner-burning fuel. This will place an enormous demand on the fuel, and because of the lack of refineries equipped to produce the new diesel, it will constrain supply and drive up prices.

OIL MARKET CONCERNS HIT THE SENATE: The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will be meeting with energy analysts and experts to better understand what could drive oil prices higher.

Hearing from the experts: Those testifying include who’s who list of energy experts, but no one from the administration or the Energy Information Administration. The closest person to a government official would be Keisuke Sadamori, the energy markets for the International Energy Agency. But that’s a  consortium of governments from around the world to which the U.S. contributes.

More energy advisers: John Auers, executive vice president at Turner, Mason & Company, will also be testifying, along with Robert McNally of the Rapidian Energy Group.

Jason Bordoff, founder of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, will also be there, along with E. Russell Braziel, CEO of the market analytics firm RBN Energy.

The hearing will be webcast live.

COURT SLAMS EPA FOR IGNORING REFINER’S ETHANOL COSTS: A federal court slammed the Environmental Protection Agency on Friday for ignoring the high cost of ethanol credits in denying a small family-owned oil refiner’s petition for relief from the agency’s renewable fuel program. The Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that EPA’s decision under the Obama administration in 2016 was “arbitrary and capricious,” because it ignored the facts presented to it by the company, Ergon-West Virginia Inc., that showed it was facing hardship in meeting the Renewable Fuel Standard’s requirements to blend ethanol.

What about the costs? EPA “failed to properly address” the costs incurred by the West Virginia-based refiner regarding the high cost of Renewable Identification Number credits it must buy to comply with the program.

EPA ‘ignored’ refiner’s hardship: “EPA’s analysis of the effect of RIN prices on Ergon’s refining facility was arbitrary and capricious on this record because the EPA ignored specific evidence suggesting that those prices had a negative effect,” said the court.

Decision canceled: The court canceled EPA’s 2016 decision to deny Ergon’s petition for a waiver from the ethanol mandate, ordering the agency to redo its analysis.

More lawsuits waiting: The court ruling comes as EPA is under pressure by the ethanol industry and its supporters on Capitol Hill to stop granting “hardship” waivers to refiners. A separate, much larger lawsuit by corn farmers and ethanol producers opposing the 2017 refinery waiver program under the Trump EPA is pending in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.

ARAB OIL AND CHINESE SOLAR INTERESTS GET CHUMMY: The United Arab Emirates and China signed multiple agreements over the weekend to cooperate on both oil and solar energy development.

Oil and solar is the future: “The most important of which are related to energy and e-commerce, in addition to a strategic cooperation agreement, in the field of oil and investment, in the solar projects,” Saudi Arabia’s official news service pointed out about its Gulf neighbor’s dealings with China.

China is ‘energy-hungry’: The agreements marked a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the UAE, which Reuters said  underscores “energy-hungry Beijing’s rapidly growing interest in the Middle East.” Xi’s visit was the first by a Chinese president in nearly 30 years.

Gulf powers trending toward China: Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Adel Al-Jubeir, recently completed an unprecedented tour of China as part of a trade mission to expand investment ties with the Asian powerhouse.

Vision 2030: Al-Jubeir was there primarily to get China to back the kingdom’s Vision 2030 plan to diversify its economy away from oil and increase investment in other areas such as renewable energy.

WATCHDOG: TRUMP’S OIL REVENUE RULES ON THE WRONG TRACK: The group Taxpayers For Common Sense is slamming the Trump’s administration’s plans to upend rules governing how the government collects revenue from drillers and miners on federal lands.

‘Disappointed’: “TCS is disappointed to see the Bureau of Land Management taking steps that will degrade taxpayer protections in the policies guiding oil and gas development on federal lands,” the group told the administration at a recent White House meeting.

More losses for taxpayer: “The outdated rules that governed development prior to 2017 cost taxpayers billions of dollars in lost revenue,” the group continued, according to a presentation posted Monday. “Reverting to them would only lead to further losses,” the group explains. ‘Change course’: “Therefore, we urge you to change course, or issue an entirely different proposed rule, before proceeding with this rulemaking.”

Final meetings: The White House Office of Management and Budget began holding meetings last week on its plans to reform and rescind certain rules at the Department of Interior that pertain to oil and natural gas “waste prevention” and royalties from drillers on federal lands. The meeting with Taxpayers for Common Sense is the first meeting that occurred July 18. Once the meetings are finished, the Interior Department will issue its final regulation.

RUNDOWN

Reuters Energy giants opening natural gas spigots, fueling profit rise

New York Times California wants to reinvent the power grid. So what can go wrong?

Bloomberg Trudeau’s tough climate policies face a mounting backlash

Axios Climate change is finally getting political cred with Republicans

Wall Street Journal Tesla asks suppliers for cash back

Bloomberg Colorado’s leap into the shale boom sparks a ballot box threat