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RENEWABLES TO DOMINATE: Renewables are expected to provide 80% of the growth in global electricity demand through 2030 even absent major new climate policies.
Solar, the “new king,” will lead the way, set to triple this decade under today’s policies with the potential to grow much faster with a little help from the government.
That’s the good news for clean energy advocates coming out of the International Energy Agency’s 2020 Global Energy Outlook released overnight.
Here’s the rub: That growth is nowhere near enough to significantly reduce emissions. Meeting new demand with renewables, which still represent a small amount of total energy use, won’t offset oil and gas use, which is growing in developing countries.
Despite the ongoing pandemic driving emissions down, current policies, both in the United States and abroad, aren’t strong enough to bring about a “decisive downward turn” in emissions, the IEA finds.
As Abby reports this morning, governments are facing a make-or-break moment to help determine whether or not the world has a chance of limiting warming temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the more ambitious of the Paris climate agreement’s targets.
Indeed, on the bad news ledger for climate activists, the IEA forecast noted that oil and natural gas are still expected to make up nearly half of the global energy mix in 2040, even in a scenario where governments support cleaner sources.
And as Josh reports this morning, without a big shift in government policies, there’s no sign a rapid decline in global oil demand is coming. Global oil demand will finally plateau or peak beginning in 2030, not sooner, despite the pandemic that has slowed down travel and altered how people live and work.
How-to guide: To change that trajectory, the IEA calls on governments to prioritize investments in renewable and low-carbon energy in their COVID-19 economic recovery packages. Thus far, only a few countries, such as those in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada, have done so. The U.S. hasn’t.
Governments will also need to do much more to reach long-term climate targets of net-zero emissions by 2050, a scenario the IEA models for the first time. That includes more quickly retiring existing fossil fuel infrastructure or equipping it with technologies that lower its emissions. By 2030, the IEA says nearly 75% of global electricity generation would need to come from low-emissions sources (compared to 40% in 2019), and more than 50% of car sales globally would need to be electric (compared to 2.5% in 2019).
Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writers Josh Siegel (@SiegelScribe) and Abby Smith (@AbbySmithDC). Email [email protected] or [email protected] for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.
BIG NUCLEAR ANNOUNCEMENT TONIGHT: The Energy Department today will unveil the recipients for its Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, launched in May, offering funding to enable actual construction of smaller advanced nuclear reactors.
The program, through cost-share agreement with industry, aims for companies to build two reactors that can be operational in five to seven years.
Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette, along with the agency’s top nuclear official Rita Baranwal, will announce the winners early tonight on a press call with Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, a top booster of nuclear energy.
Hear it here first: Josh is hearing DOE is set to give the grants to TerraPower and GE Hitachi for its Natrium project that would build advanced reactors that store excess energy in tanks of molten salt, along with X-energy for its high temperature gas-cooled reactors.
TRUMP TO SIGN ‘TRILLION TREES’ ORDER: The executive order, which we’re hearing President Trump will sign this afternoon, sets up an interagency council to make the president’s pledge to help plant, restore, and conserve a trillion trees globally by 2030 a reality.
The council, which will include top members of the White House and 14 federal agencies, will develop a way to track how many trees are grown, restored, and conserved by the federal government, as well as U.S.-based companies, cities, and other groups, according to a White House official. The council will also identify regulatory barriers to government efforts to plant trees, the official said. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and Interior Secretary David Bernhardt will co-chair the council.
Trump announced in January that the U.S. would join the One Trillion Trees effort, though he avoided mention of climate change, despite that being the major driver for the World Economic Forum initiative.
BEHIND THE CORPORATE NET-ZERO HYPE: Even in the middle of a global pandemic, more and more companies, including major producers and consumers of fossil fuels, have announced they’ll target net-zero emissions by 2050.
The ground has shifted beneath corporations on climate change, making it a riskier proposition for companies that aren’t addressing emissions, Abby reports for this week’s Washington Examiner magazine.
“Corporates are getting net-zero pressure from every angle now,” Ben Ratner, a senior director with the Environmental Defense Fund+Business, told Abby. That includes investors, asset managers, employees, politicians, environmental activists, and the public.
Read more on the shifting landscape in Abby’s story.
THE LATEST ON THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: Majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and independents agree on the basics of climate change — including that it’s happening, that humans are contributing, and the planet will continue to warm if nothing is done to address it — but that agreement breaks down across stark partisan lines over the urgency of climate change.
Those are some of the major findings of new polling released Tuesday from researchers at Resources for the Future and Stanford University. For example, 86% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans surveyed said they’ve personally seen the effects of climate change. However, only 26% of Republicans think unchecked climate change would harm them personally, compared to 76% of Democrats.
Even so, the widespread agreement on core aspects of climate change, as well as a handful of clean energy and climate policies, sets the issue apart in modern politics, said Jon Krosnick, a political science and psychology professor at Stanford and university fellow with RFF. He told Abby the researchers have another report coming out in a few weeks that finds no state in the U.S. is majority skeptical of climate change.
Areas of agreement, which include support for tax breaks on renewables, requiring power plants to cut emissions, and encouraging energy efficiency, create opportunities for policymakers, Krosnick added.
More people are passionate about climate change than ever before: Krosnick and his team found more than 50 million people in the U.S. who care deeply about climate change, a big number for this or any issue. That will undoubtedly have an effect on the upcoming election, he added.
More broadly, Krosnick said public opinion on climate change shows that politicians who back addressing the issue are likely to help their election chances. If politicians choose “to stay quiet on climate, I can guarantee they’re giving up votes when they do that,” he added.
MAUI’S LAWSUIT MAKES TWO DOZEN AGAINST BIG OIL: Maui County on Monday filed suit against 20 oil companies, including Exxon, Chevron, BP, and Shell, alleging they deliberately hid the negative effects their products would have on climate change.
It’s the latest lawsuit in a pile-up of challenges against oil companies from cities, counties, and states seeking billions to compensate for adapting to the effects of climate change, including sea level rise and intensified storms. The number of lawsuits has been increasing steadily in the past few months, and environmentalists see a path to trial for at least one of the cases.
“It might be a David vs Goliath case, but someone has to take a stand and oil companies need to pay for the damage they knowingly caused,” Maui County Mayor Michael Victorino said in a statement Monday.
Maui County’s lawsuit comes as the Supreme Court is poised to weigh in on whether these climate cases should be heard in state court or in federal court, seen as a more favorable venue for the oil companies. The industry has already lost three separate bids to move climate cases in Baltimore, California, and Colorado to federal court, but it’s hoping the Supreme Court will reverse course.
SAY MY NAME: The Petroleum Marketers Association of America, whose members own and operate gas stations and supply heating fuels, announced Tuesday it is changing its name to the Energy Marketers of America.
The change is intended to reflect the group’s evolving prioritization of alternative energy sources including renewable diesel, biodiesel, and renewable gasoline.
With that said, the group’s president Rob Underwood said liquid fuels will continue to “be a crucial driver of economic growth” and used to power the vast majority of transportation, and urged policymakers to support policies to reduce carbon emissions in a technology-neutral way.
“Research and funding for reductions in carbon emissions associated with liquid fuels should be treated with the same urgency as afforded to electrification,” Underwood said.
TEXAS POLLUTION ON THE RISE IN TRUMP ERA: The EPA and state regulators are failing to enforce violations of unauthorized air pollution in violation of Clean Air Act permits at Texas industrial facilities, a local environmental group reports today.
In 2019, Texas refineries, petrochemical plants, and other facilities reported 4,086 unauthorized releases of air pollution, including benzene, butadiene particulate matter and carbon dioxide, amounting to 174 million pounds of emissions.
Total unauthorized pollution in the state more than doubled under the Trump administration since 2015, when Texas companies reported releasing a total of 68 million pounds of emissions, according to the Environment Texas Research and Policy Center.
“The EPA is cutting protection left and right, and Texans are paying the price,” said Catherine Fraser, clean air associate at the center, who also blamed rollbacks of environmental regulation in the Trump administration.
It’s worth noting the Trump administration has favored an approach of companies voluntarily disclosing violations and then EPA working with them to fix the issues, rather than bringing an enforcement action.
The Rundown
Axios BP’s climate reinvention dodges politics
Reuters Climate change poses ‘profound threat’ to global growth: IMF chief
New York Times Environmentalists and dam operators, at war for years, start making peace
CNBC Goldman says a Biden win could be a ‘positive catalyst’ for oil prices
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCT. 13
2 p.m. The National Hydropower Association in partnership with ClearPath hosts a virtual event titled, “What does the 2020 Election mean for Clean Energy?”
3 p.m. The American Conservation Coalition hosts a virtual event with Florida Republican Rep. Brian Mast, Mavericks Inc., and Audobon Action Fund titled, “Conservative Conservation: The Future of American Environmental Reform.”
WEDNESDAY | OCT. 14
2 p.m. The House Natural Resource Committee’s Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources hosts a virtual forum titled, “The Threat of Offshore Drilling and the Need for a Permanent Federal Ban.”
