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WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN THURSDAY’S TALKS: The hope for talks between Guyana and Venezuela Thursday is that they will get a chance to discuss areas of collaboration and allay fears that the dispute is going to spiral into outright conflict immediately.
The negotiations, set to be held in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, could also reassure Brazil, whose president deployed its own troops to the border it shares with both countries, that they can peacefully coexist.
“This is an effort encouraged by Brazil and others to get the parties together to try to talk and maybe find issues they can agree on that don’t relate to the actual substance of the dispute,” Christopher Hernandez-Roy, the deputy Americas director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Breanne in an interview.
More than anything, it’s a forum for each country to reassure the other that “nothing imminent is about to occur,” he added, noting that leaders could agree to certain “confidence building measures” to allay fears from Brazil or other neighbors.
Meanwhile, though: The rift is deepening, and quickly. Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said the International Court of Justice is the only arbiter with the jurisdiction to rule on the dispute, while Venezuela has belligerently insisted it will not comply with outside court rulings, and had its own maps printed late last week showing Essequibo as an extension of its borders.
“I have made it very clear that on the issue of the border controversy, Guyana’s position is non-negotiable,” Ali said yesterday in televised remarks.
He added that oil exploration was continuing despite Venezuela’s threats to take over, and that troops are prepared to defend against any incursion. “We are continuing to ensure that we are in a position with our international partners to defend what is ours,” Ali told Bloomberg in an interview. “But make no mistake, our troops are going to ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Guyana is respected.”
More saber-rattling: Beyond the maps, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is staking out bold new claims to the region. He’s ordered state-run oil companies to begin drilling, told existing companies they have three months to halt operations, and vowed to deploy a special military unit to the region—all at the express disapproval of international bodies.
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LEADERS REMAIN AT IMPASSE OVER FOSSIL FUEL TEXT IN DUBAI: Western leaders were among the governments that, as of the time of this writing, were clashing with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ nations into this early afternoon as they extended negotiations over the draft COP28 agreement – specifically, whether to include language that calls for the phasing out of fossil fuels.
The talks stretched past the official “end” of the COP28 summit, but much daylight remains between the two camps. OPEC has led the push for softer language on fossil fuels, with Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais pressing members earlier this month to reject any text that called for a phase-out, but the U.S. and other Western allies firmly backed that language—arguing that the softer target, included in the current text, is insufficient and risks existential and irreparable harm.
Saudi Arabia is leading the opposition in Dubai to the “phase out” language, negotiators told Reuters, though fellow cartel members Iran, Iraq, and Russia have also joined in on the effort.
The “phase-out” group appears to be a majority. Some 100 participating nations are pushing for that language as negotiations stretch on, according to Reuters. Those countries include the U.S., U.K, EU members, and Australia, who view the text as too weak in its current form. China’s position was not immediately clear.
…Meanwhile, COP28 Director General Majid al-Suwaidi attempted to downplay the matter entirely. There “are lots of words in the text,” he told reporters at a press briefing this morning, adding that it is “easy for negotiators to get hung up on one word and focus on one thing.”
A URANIUM BILL UC? Senate leadership is trying to unanimously pass a bill that would ban the imports of uranium from Russia – specifically unirradiated, low-enriched uranium – following swift passage in the lower chamber on Monday.
Senate leadership is currently “hotlining” the House-passed bill, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. This means that each side of leadership bypasses Senate procedures and informs members of the effort to pass the bill by unanimous consent. If there aren’t any objections, the measure can pass.
The bill, dubbed the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, passed by voice vote through the House on Monday, sending the bill to the Senate. The measure moved through the lower chamber with Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone, the ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, voicing support for the bill – citing the need to invest in domestic production of the critical mineral and wean off of dependence on Russia.
“Over the last two years, we’ve seen how Russia tries to wield its energy resources as a weapon,” Pallone said during floor remarks. “It’s simply unsustainable.”
House Energy and Commerce Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the bill’s sponsor, praised the bill’s passage last night in a joint statement with Rep. Jeff Duncan, stating that the bill will “help restore America’s nuclear leadership and fuel infrastructure.”
Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee ranking member Sen. John Barrasso, who sponsored the companion legislation in the upper chamber, called for the bill to be sent to the White House.
“The United States must ban the sale of Russian uranium in America. Vladimir Putin has used Russia’s nuclear industry to fund his brutal invasion of Ukraine,” Barrasso said in a statement. “The Senate should immediately send it to the president.”
What the bill does: The measure would ban uranium produced in Russia from being imported in the U.S. – unless the Department of Energy 1) determines that there is no alternative source of low-enriched uranium available for the U.S.’s nuclear operations, or 2) the importation of uranium is “in the national interest” of the U.S.
The bill establishes annual caps on the amount of low-enriched uranium that may be imported from Russia through 2027, and would limit funding for the Department of Energy’s American Assured Fuel Supply Program, which serves as a back-up fuel supply in case of disruptions in the market.
White House’s moves on uranium: Although the White House has banned imports of Russian oil, gas, and coal, the administration has yet to halt uranium imports from Russia. 12% of U.S. purchases of uranium in 2022 were from Russia, while 36% came from Russian-allied Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, according to the Energy Information Administration. These imports have received increased scrutiny following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Terrapower and other companies previously stating they will not use more enriched fuel from Russia – even though no commercial alternative exists.
The bigger complication: Uranium is the core ingredient to powering nuclear plants, and the Biden administration has viewed nuclear as key to reducing carbon emissions – investing billions in the development of new-generation advanced reactors.
It’s unclear what the White House will do if the bill is sent to their desk. A spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
ENERGY MINISTERS MEET FOR ENERGY CONFERENCE: OPEC energy ministers kicked off the 12th Arab Energy Conference in Doha, Reuters reports.
Ministers from Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Libya, and non-OPEC member Oman arrived for the meeting, along with Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman – who had been in Dubai for the climate summit.
United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei was absent.
The significance: This meeting took place in the background of the global climate conference, where countries like the UAE have been pushing back against calls to phase out fossil fuels. More on that here.
FORD HALVING PRODUCTION OF F-150 EV TRUCK: Automaker Ford told its suppliers it will be halving the production rate of its F-150 Lightning pickup trucks starting in January, Automotive News reports.
The automaker is halving its production of 3,200 trucks a week down to 1,600 – a steep pullback of a high-profile nameplate the automaker spent most of the year working to build in large numbers. The news comes amid an industry-wide pullback in electric vehicle investment due to slower-than-expected sales growth. More on that here.
The Rundown
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