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HOW CLIMATE CHANGE COULD COME UP TONIGHT: Joe Biden is likely to find ways to weave climate change into his debate responses tonight, even if there’s no dedicated question on the issue.
It’s most likely Biden will tout his $2 trillion climate plan as a job creator, especially in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and economic downturn, during the section of the debate focused on the economy. Debate moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News also plans to ask about the coronavirus, the candidates’ records, the Supreme Court, the integrity of the election, and “race and violence in our cities.”
“When Donald Trump thinks about climate change he thinks: ‘hoax.’ I think: ‘jobs,’” Biden said during a speech earlier this month, repeating a line he’s said often on the trail. “Good-paying, union jobs that put Americans to work building a stronger, more climate resilient nation.”
The audience for Biden’s jobs focus: It’s how he’s looking to bring blue-collar union workers, especially those in fossil fuel-related jobs, on board with his climate plans.
The former vice president’s allies are betting he will focus on climate change, too.
Former Secretary of State John Kerry told donors at a private fundraiser last week he expects Biden to “hold Trump accountable” on climate change, regardless of whether there’s a question on the issue, E&E News reports.
“You can’t talk about the economy, and resuscitating it, without talking about building out the new energy system of America,” Kerry said, per a recording of the fundraiser E&E News obtained.
How Trump could hit back: The Trump campaign has sought for months to heighten worries among fossil fuel workers, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio (where the debate is being held tonight), about Biden’s position on fracking.
It has put Biden on the defensive on the issue, forcing him to repeatedly try to clarify that he wouldn’t seek to ban fracking. Ahead of the debate, oil industry groups are trying to remind people just how important oil and gas is to the U.S. economy and how the industry can help tackle climate change (see more on their debate message lower down).
Trump could also try to revive his arguments linking Biden’s climate plans to California, claiming the state’s rolling blackouts last month are a preview of what could happen nationally under a Biden administration.
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BIDEN TO TAKE TOUGH LINE ON CHINA DESPITE NEW CLIMATE PLEDGE: Biden allies tell Josh for a story posted this morning that the former vice president is unlikely to back down from harsh rhetoric he’s used during the campaign against Beijing for its support of fossil fuels at home and abroad.
“Biden will confront China because it’s necessary policy and it’s great domestic politics,” said Paul Bledsoe, a former climate adviser in the Clinton administration affiliated with Clean Energy for Biden, a group raising money for the Democratic nominee.
China’s new carbon neutrality plan for 2060 does nothing to address its coal use or financing of exports through its Belt and Road initiative. So an opening still exists for Biden to adopt a tough posture against China, the top emitter in the world.
China skepticism is a campaign theme: In his official climate plan, Biden warns China against “gaming the system by becoming destination economies for polluters, undermining climate efforts and exploiting American workers and businesses” and he wants to make trade agreements contingent on Beijing cutting coal support in Belt and Road.
“Biden has been absolutely clear going back to his first climate plan and then through the primaries, criticizing where China was domestically with emissions, but also internationally with development policy,” said Andrew Light, a climate negotiator under President Barack Obama.
The big question: Will China have reason to listen to Biden? Under Trump, who rejected the Paris agreement, the U.S. is far-off from reaching its 2025 emissions-cutting target. Biden will set a 2030 target next year, but achieving it may hinge on passing climate legislation.
“The question is, what would the 2030 commitment look like under Biden and how credible would it be with international partners given the difficulty we’ve had in meeting the 2025 target?” said Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists.
RELATED…PUBLIC SKEPTICAL OF CHINA’S CLIMATE COMMITMENTS: More than 6 in 10 voters don’t trust China to hold up its climate agreements, according to new polling by Climate Nexus, the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication.
But voters (57% of them) prefer the U.S. “partner” rather than “compete” with China on increasing clean and renewable energy to combat climate change.
A majority agree (by a margin of 58% to 25%) that, “the only way that we can limit global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius is if the United States and China work together to address climate change.”
Caveat: The poll of 1,984 registered voters was conducted online in early August, before China announced its carbon neutrality target.
ONE MORE THING ON CHINA: Reaching carbon neutrality by 2060 will be a difficult feat for China, especially in the heat and industrial sectors, that will require the country to substantially build out nascent low-carbon technologies like carbon capture and hydrogen, Bloomberg NEF said in a new analysis Tuesday.
Even without new policy measures, BNEF expects carbon emissions in China’s power sector to peak in 2027 and in its transportation sector in 2031, but that still puts the country far from carbon-neutral. BNEF said China will need to massively deploy renewable energy and nuclear power, along with carbon capture and hydrogen, in the power sector and shift away from less efficient means of transportation, in addition to speeding up adoption of electric and other zero-emissions vehicles.
There are also a number of open questions still about China’s pledge, BNEF said, including how the country will account for agriculture emissions, whether offsets will be allowed to count toward the target, and whether certain sectors would be exempted. A big test of whether China is serious about its pledge will be if the country sets interim targets, ideally specifying how many emissions reductions it is seeking from each sector of its economy, BNEF added.
EXIT INTERVIEW WITH RETIRING REPRESENTATIVES WALDEN AND SHIMKUS: Reps. Greg Walden and John Shimkus of Illinois, the top Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, say they have successfully “reset” the conversation about climate change on Capitol Hill, promoting private sector innovation as an alternative to Democratic ideas favoring regulation, taxes, or mandates.
“We have made real progress,” said Walden, 63, who is retiring along with Shimkus, 62, in January, in a joint interview with Josh for our magazine this week. “We have made clear that Republicans have innovation at the head of our agenda. We frankly have shook up the Democrats and gotten the debate where it needs to be: in a better place.”
Walden and Shimkus are eager to tout a dozen emissions-cutting bipartisan bills they’ve proposed as short-term options for Congress to address in an election year, including measures boosting small nuclear reactors, long-duration energy storage projects, natural gas exports, and carbon capture.
No further policy shift is coming: But Walden and Shimkus suggested that even in retirement, they won’t endorse more comprehensive policies such as carbon pricing or a clean electricity standard.
“In my core, I am more a free market person who thinks these companies will respond to market forces and get there,” Walden said.
The Republican duo said they foresee no need for the U.S. to set a target for zeroing out its emissions, saying that companies and states have established their own goals.
SNEAK PEEK…CONERVERATIVE GROUP’S ELECTION ENDORSEMENTS: Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions gave us an early look at its slate of endorsements for 2020 congressional candidates, all Republicans.
The conservative group says each of their favored candidates has demonstrated support for “free-market policies” aimed at spurring research, development, and deployment of renewable, nuclear, natural gas, and carbon capture technologies.
Senators (each, notably, in competitive races) endorsed by CRES are Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
The group also backed House members Mark Amodei, Don Bacon, Dan Crenshaw, John Curtis, Brian Fitzpatrick, Matt Gaetz, Garret Graves, John Katko, Adam Kinzinger, Brian Mast, Kevin McCarthy, David McKinley, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Tom Reed, Mike Simpson, Elise Stefanik, and Fred Upton.
EPA VS. CALIFORNIA, AGAIN: EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler slammed Gov. Gavin Newsom’s commitment to 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2035 in a letter Monday, suggesting California’s move might not be legal given the Trump administration’s withdrawal of the state’s ability to set its own tailpipe greenhouse gas limits.
Wheeler also didn’t pass up a chance to hit California again on the rolling blackouts it experienced in August amid peak electricity demand during a severe heat wave. Wheeler and other Republican politicians have blamed California’s aggressive climate policies and increasing amounts of renewable energy for the blackouts.
“California’s record of rolling blackouts – unprecedented in size and scope – coupled with recent requests to neighboring states for power begs the question of how you expect to run an electric car fleet that will come with significant increases in electricity demand, when you can’t even keep the lights on today,” Wheeler wrote.
PEAK OIL DEMAND…2030? French oil major Total sees oil demand peaking around 2030, according to a forecast released Tuesday.
That’s a more conservative outlook that its rival BP, which recently projected oil demand could never reach its pre-coronavirus levels again.
There’s a whole lot more in Total’s energy outlook. Dig in here.
TRUMP DOE’S COUNTERPOINT…Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette delivered a much different message to a virtual conference hosted by the oil and gas industry this morning, projecting “any transition away from [fossil fuels] will be slow if it occurs at all.”
Brouillette, speaking to the Marcellus Shale Coalition, also warned of Democratic proposals to limit fossil fuels, saying policymakers instead should “continue to do what we have been doing” in the Trump administration, meaning cutting regulations to enable more energy production.
SPOTTED IN HOUSE DEMOCRATS’ NEW PANDEMIC RELIEF BILL: The $2.2 trillion updated HEROES Act unveiled by House Democrats last night would ramp up funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance program by an additional $4.5 billion, significantly more than the $1.5 billion included in the first HEROES package.
The bill also includes $143 million for the Energy Department to offset costs of the pandemic’s effect on certain projects, as well as $1.3 million for the agency to continue responding to the coronavirus, including for purchasing personal protective equipment.
API’S DEBATE MESSAGE: The American Petroleum Institute will be running a pair of ads during debate coverage Tuesday night as part of its ongoing multimillion-dollar “Energy for Progress” campaign aiming to sell the oil and gas industry as committed to combating climate change.
The ads, titled Solving Big Challenges Requires Energy and How America Is Leading The Way, call for “common ground in the energy debate in 2020 and beyond.”
NEW BILL TO MODERNIZE THE GRID: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois unveiled legislation Monday to speed up buildout of and upgrades to electricity infrastructure to allow it to accommodate more clean energy.
The legislation directs the Energy Department and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to improve electric grid planning, probe ways to make the transmission network more efficient, and smooth integration of clean energy technologies into the grid, according to a one-pager. The House passed pieces of the legislation as part of its sweeping clean energy package last week, the Democratic lawmakers said.
The Rundown
Wall Street Journal Blackstone sets goal to reduce carbon emissions
Bloomberg It’s time to stop confusing key climate terms
New York Times 3 killed in fresh wildfires in northern California
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | SEPT. 30
11:30 a.m. The House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology’s environment subcommittee holds a virtual hearing titled, “Coping with Compound Crises: Extreme Weather, Social Injustice, and a Global Pandemic.”
12 p.m. The House Natural Resources Committee holds a virtual hearing to mark up 19 bills.
THURSDAY | OCT. 1
9:30 a.m. The Atlantic Council holds on online event titled, “Securing the energy transition: Innovative cyber solutions for grid security.”
10 a.m. The House Energy and Commerce Committee’s Subcommittee on Energy will hold a virtual hearing titled, “Generating Equity: Improving Clean Energy Access and Affordability.”
12 p.m. The House Natural Resources Committee holds a virtual legislative hearing on the Environmental Justice for All Act, H.R. 5986.
1 p.m. The House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis holds a virtual hearing titled, “Creating a Climate Resilient America: Strengthening the U.S. Financial System and Expanding Economic Opportunity.”
