U.S. greenhouse gas emissions fell by nearly 2% in 2023 even as the economy continued to grow, according to a new analysis from Rhodium Group.
The researchers said, though, that the U.S. is still well off pace to reach the emissions reduction goals set under the Paris climate agreement.
According to the report, U.S. emissions fell by 1.9% year on year while the economy grew by 2.4% — the first time the U.S. has seen a concurrent drop in emissions and economic growth since before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The year-on-year decline is due primarily to emissions reduction in the U.S. power sector, which fell by 8% in the last 12 months, as well as building emissions, which saw a 4% drop in the same period.
The drop in power sector emissions comes as the U.S. continues to move away from coal-fired power plants and transition to cleaner and renewable sources of energy.
Coal made up just 17% of the U.S. energy generation in 2023, the group found, generating its lowest amount of the nation’s power since 1969. And for the second year ever, coal generation was also overtaken by nuclear power — a shift that comes as more states, including California, look to extend the life of aging nuclear power plants.
Meanwhile, milder winter weather helped ease heating demand, leading to the 4% drop in building emissions.
The 2023 emissions reduction is the largest single-year decline the U.S. has seen since 2016, Rhodium Group said, and marks a whopping 17.2% decline in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2005 levels.
The report also noted that it is too early to measure for expected contributions from the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which allocated billions to clean energy spending and toward the creation of clean energy jobs. Though the group said it expects the legislation to drive large emissions reductions over time, it said it will likely take “years” for the full impacts of the legislation to be seen and measured in emissions outcomes.
For now, the group called the decline in emissions “a step in the right direction,” even as they noted it remains well below the goal set by President Joe Biden, which targets a 50%-52% emissions reduction by 2030 in line with the Paris climate agreement.
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Roughly speaking, meeting that goal means the U.S. would have to more than triple its emissions reductions each year between 2024 and 2030, the group said — a goal that “looks ever more challenging absent a major new policy push.”
“We’ll be watching to see if the US can sustain and accelerate its 2023 emissions decline in 2024 and beyond,” the group added.
